Tennis Betting Tips: Swiatek to sail into Cincinnati Open quarter-finals

The Cincinnati Open continues on Wednesday, with plenty of star names in action, including Jannik Sinner and Madison Keys.

Below are my Tennis Betting Tips for Wednesday, and all three selections combined pay out at a handsome 11.4/1.

Match Betting - Frances Tiafoe (USA) to beat Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (DEN) @ 11/10

Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune face off for the second time in their careers on Wednesday, with the American taking the first, in the same competition last year, in three sets (4-6, 6-1, 7-6).

This week, Tiafoe is again considered the underdog, but the 2024 Cincinnati Open runner-up, who tends to save his best for the North American swing, is more than backable against Rune, who hasn't dropped a set at this year's tournament, but was pushed hard by Roman Safiullin (7-5, 7-6) in the second round, and Alex Michelsen (7-6, 6-3) in the third.

The World No. 9 also won his first two matches in straight sets at the Canadian Open in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, but was undone in the last 16 by Alexei Popyrin (6-4, 2-6, 3-6).

Rune has endured an inconsistent year on tour, but so far in 2025, he holds a 5-3 record against top-20 opponents, an encouraging statistic ahead of his match against World No. 14 Tiafoe.

However, on the American hard courts, Tiafoe will always fancy his chances against Rune, and at over EVS, I'm happy to side with the 27-year-old, who eased past Roberto Carballes Baena (6-4, 6-3) and Ugo Humbert (6-4, 6-4) to reach this stage.

Total Games 2 - Under 16.5 in Iga Swiatek (POL) vs Sorana Cirstea (ROM) @ 5/4

Iga Swiatek should be fit and firing for this one after being handed a walkover in the third round against Marta Kostyuk, who withdrew due to a right wrist injury.

The Pole coasted through her second-round match against Anastasia Potapova (6-1, 6-4), and in her two Canadian Open victories in Montreal a couple of weeks ago, there were exactly 16 games, as she beat Hanyu Guo (6-3, 6-1) and Eva Lys (6-2, 6-2) before losing to Clara Tauson (6-7, 3-6) in the last 16.

Under 16.5 games has landed in four of Swiatek's last six matches, and was a winning selection in both meetings between the 24-year-old and Sorana Cirstea last year.

Swiatek won the first, at the Doha Open in January 2024, 6-1, 6-1, and triumphed by the same scoreline at the Madrid Open three months later.

Cirstea lost in the first round of the Canadian Open last month to Lulu Sun (3-6, 5-7), and has been taken to three sets in all three Cincinnati Open contests so far, beating Donna Vekic (6-1, 4-6, 6-3), Magdalena Frech (7-6, 2-6, 6-4) and Yue Yuan (6-7, 6-4, 6-4).

Considering the challenging conditions in Cincinnati, the Romanian is likely to be drained heading into her next match against the well-rested World No. 3, who could claim another convincing victory over the 35-year-old on Wednesday.

Game Handicap 2 - Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) +4.5 vs Aryna Sabalenka (Wrl) @ 13/8

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka was pushed all the way in her third-round victory over Emma Raducanu (7-6, 4-6, 7-6) on Monday, as she was forced to two tiebreakers, one in the first set and another in the third.

The 27-year-old will be glad to have gotten the British No. 1 out of the way, after facing another tough battle against her at Wimbledon last month, when she won 7-6, 6-4.

In Monday's Tennis Betting Tips, I successfully backed Raducanu on the +4.5 game handicap (4/5). It's a market I'm looking to again on Wednesday, this time with Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who came close to landing this selection in her only previous match against Sabalenka, at the Australian Open in January earlier this year.

Sabalenka beat the Spaniard 6-3, 7-5 in Melbourne, but suffered two breaks of serve in the first set, and one in the second.

I think the Belarusian will find things easier against Bouzas Maneiro than she did against Raducanu earlier this week, but I've been complimentary of Bouzas Maneiro over the last couple of weeks, and for good reason.

The 22-year-old reached the quarter-finals of the Canadian Open in Montreal earlier this month, only losing to eventual champion Victoria Mboko (4-6, 2-6), while she is yet to lose a set in Cincinnati, beating Venus Williams (6-4, 6-4), Leylah Fernandez (6-3, 6-3) and Taylor Townsend (6-4, 6-1).

In fairness to Sabalenka, her match against Raducanu was only her second since her Wimbledon semi-final defeat to Amanda Anisimova (4-6, 6-4, 4-6) on July 10, so she's bound to be a bit rusty, especially on a surface she hadn't played on since March 29.

I'm expecting the 27-year-old to step things up on Wednesday, but even in a straight-sets victory, I can see a scoreline like 6-4, 7-5, which would land the above selection.

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