Tennis Betting Tips: Washington Open winner Fernandez to make hay in Montreal

The 2025 Canadian Open first round is all but wrapped up, with only three matches remaining in the women's singles. The second round, though, begins on Tuesday, with Lorenzo Musetti among the headline names in Toronto (ATP), and Jasmine Paolini one of the standout stars in Montreal (WTA).

My Tennis Betting Tips for Tuesday, July 29, which you can check out below, feature a couple of picks from Montreal and one from Toronto.

Set Betting - Leylah Fernandez (CAN) 2-0 vs Maya Joint (AUS) @ 11/10

Leylah Fernandez, runner-up to Emma Raducanu in the 2021 US Open, collected the biggest title of her career on Sunday as she thrashed Anna Kalinskaya (6-1, 6-2) in the Washington Open final. It was the fourth trophy of the Canadian's career, but her first at a WTA 500 event.

The 22-year-old is evidently something of a hard-court specialist, as all four of her final wins have come on the surface.

Kalinskaya hadn't dropped a set all week in Washington, but Fernandez made light work of the Russian, dropping just three games to propel herself to 24th in the WTA rankings.

Fernandez began the tournament with a straight-sets success over Maya Joint (6-3, 6-3), whom she faces again in the first round, eight days later, this time in Montreal.

Joint won the Eastbourne Open in June, saving four championship points en route to victory over Alexandra Eala, but the 19-year-old exited Wimbledon in the first round, losing to Liudmila Samsonova (3-6, 2-6).

The Australian is now in serious danger of a hat-trick of first-round knockouts this month as she prepares to face Fernandez, who held serve in their match last Monday.

Joint only managed one break point against the Canadian, at 1-1 in the second set, and failed to take advantage of that sole opportunity. After holding serve in Sunday's final, Fernandez will be confident of doing so again on Tuesday.

She may be tired following her weekend exploits, while Joint hasn't played a match since, but I think Fernandez's quality and confidence will see her through in straight sets again here.

Set Betting - Anna Kalinskaya (Wrl) 2-1 vs Ann Li (USA) @ 3/1

Like Fernandez, Kalinskaya's first-round match in Montreal has been moved from Monday to Tuesday, to allow the Washington Open finalists to travel and recover sufficiently.

The Russian will still be reeling after a disappointing performance on the weekend, when she won just three games and failed to break Fernandez's serve. This came after four successive straight-set victories, so it was a real 'back down to earth' moment for the 26-year-old.

In Canada, she takes on Ann Li, whom she has faced once before, at the Singapore Open on February 1. Li progressed from that semi-final, winning 7-6 in the first set before Kalinskaya retired 1-0 down in the second, although the American went on to lose in the final of that indoor tournament to Elise Mertens (1-6, 4-6).

Li built up some confidence in Prague last week, beating Astra Sharma (7-6, 6-3) and Leolia Jeanjean (6-4, 6-3) in straight sets before losing to eventual champion Marie Bouzkova (6-3, 3-6, 3-6) in the quarter-finals.

Naturally, Li, ranked 59th in the world, 28 places below Kalinskaya, is regarded as the underdog on Tuesday, but given the Russian's Sunday session in Washington, and how that match unfolded, USA's No. 12 may fancy her chances of at least forcing a third set.

At 3/1, I think it's worth a punt backing Li to make a match of it, but for Kalinskaya to eventually come out on top.

Total Games 2 - Over 23.5 in Reilly Opelka (USA) vs Tomas Machac (CZE) @ 5/6

Tomas Machac lost in the opening round of the Canadian Open last year in Montreal, but for the 2025 Toronto edition, he enters at the second round, taking on Reilly Opelka, who beat Sebastian Ofner (7-6, 7-5) on Sunday to reach this stage.

Two has been the unlucky number for Opelka over the last month-and-a-half, with the 27-year-old winning his first match at Queen's, Eastbourne, Wimbledon and Washington, but falling to defeat in his second. In Washington last week, he defeated fellow American Murphy Cassone (7-6, 6-7, 6-3), but fell short against Daniil Medvedev (6-3, 5-7, 1-6).

Opelka picked himself back up on the weekend, beating Ofner to get his tournament in Toronto up and running, but as the score suggests, it wasn't a walk in the park for the 6ft 11in World No. 74; in fact, it marked the fifth consecutive match that produced over 24.5 games, albeit the first two were at Wimbledon in a best-of-three setter.

As someone who is often referred to as a 'servebot', and one of the most efficient of them around, it's no surprise to see Opelka dragged into so many tiebreakers; there has been at least one in eight of his last nine matches, with only his defeat to Medvedev, which saw the Russian win 7-5 in the second set, failing to produce one.

That means that, even if the contest is wrapped up in two sets, you're likely to see the total number of games in the twenties, pushing toward the mid-range.

Opelka has played Machac twice in his career, with both head-to-heads taking place earlier this year. The first, at the Australian Open on January 15, saw the Czech emerge triumphant from a gruelling five-setter (3-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4), winning two of the three tiebreaks.

Then, at the Miami Open on March 24, Machac won in straight sets (7-6, 6-3), but again, a tiebreak was required in the first.

We didn't quite see 24 games in Miami, falling two short (22), but considering Machac's fitness issues, I think Opelka will get closer to a victory in Toronto on Tuesday, and at 5/4, he might be worth backing to advance to the third round.

For added insurance, though, I'm tipping over 23.5 total games, which has landed in Machac's last two completed matches on hard court, and four of Opelka's last five.

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