Tennis Betting Tips: Purcell to push Shang all the way at Atlanta Open

Thursday's three selections saw us come agonisingly close to a hat-trick as I successfully backed Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 5/4 and for there to be over 23.5 total games in Aslan Karatsev vs Frances Tifaoe at 1/1; however, Linda Noskova lost a third-set tiebreaker to Magda Linette to miss out on the 11/4.

I return today with my Tennis betting tips for Friday's action with three ATP event picks.

Tennis Odds

ATP Kitzbuhel - Over 24.5 total games in Yannick Hanfmann (GER) vs Matteo Berrettini (ITA) @ 6/5

Yannick Hanfmann and Matteo Berrettini meet for the first time on Friday as they face off in the semi-finals of the Austrian Open Kitzbuhel.

The German beat Jaume Munar (6-3, 6-4) and Thiago Seyboth Wild (7-6, 6-4) in straight sets either side of a 2-1 victory over Gustavo Heide (6-3, 1-6, 6-2) to book his place in the final four, while the Italian beat each of Pavel Kotov (7-6, 7-6), Alejandro Tabilo (7-6, 7-6) and Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (7-6, 6-3) in straight sets to make his way to the penultimate round of the event.

Berrettini is strong favourite to triumph and reach the weekend's final, but the former world number six hasn't had it easy in Austria, despite not dropping a set.

The 28-year-old has been forced to a tiebreaker in five of the six sets he has played in the clay court competition, and his first two matches both saw a total of 26 games.

Hanfmann was involved in a tiebreak himself against Seyboth Wild but beat the Brazilian and Spaniard Munar in straight sets, with both matches going under 24 games.

The 32-year-old was forced to three sets by Brazilian Heide, though, with 24 games played in that match.

I think we could see Hanfmann's first 24-plus games match on Friday, despite the expectation that Berrettini will win in straight sets.

As we've seen a couple of times already in Kitzbuhel, a straight-set Berrettini victory doesn't mean he hasn't had to work extremely hard to achieve it, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another couple of tiebreakers in this semi-final, or even Hanfmann pushing it to a third set.

ATP Umag - Andrey Rublev (Wrl) to beat Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) 2-1 @ 11/4

Over in Umag, there is a Croatia Open semi-final taking place between Andrey Rublev and Francisco Cerundolo, with the head-to-head record tied going into this one.

Both previous matches have come on clay court; Cerundolo won the first meeting in straight sets (6-4, 6-2) at the Hamburg Open in July 2022 before Rublev exacted his revenge at the Swedish Open a year later in a three-setter (7-6, 6-7, 6-3).

ATP-ranked number nine Rublev has endured a mixed year on court but showed his class on clay earlier in the year by beating Carlos Alcaraz en route to winning the Madrid Open in May.

The 26-year-old beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli (6-4, 7-5) and Fabian Marozsan (5-7, 6-3, 6-2) to reach the final four of the Croatia Open and now faces a second Argentine at the event, and his third Argentine in his last four matches.

Cerundolo got the better of Matej Dodig (6-3, 6-4) and Lorenzo Sonego (6-4, 2-6, 7-6) to make the semi-finals in Umag, but could be left to regret the intensity of his victory over the latter with the Summer Olympics just around the corner.

The 25-year-old has struggled against some of the higher-ranked players on clay court this year, bowing out to Taylor Fritz at the Madrid Open, Karen Khachanov at the Italian Open, and Novak Djokovic at the French Open.

I think he'll exit a tournament once again to a prominent player, but he can certainly take Rublev to a third set and expose some of the fragilities that have been evident in the Russian's game this year.

ATP Atlanta - Juncheng Shang (CHN) to beat Max Purcell (AUS) 2-1 @ 3/1

In the USA, meanwhile, Juncheng Shang takes on Max Purcell in the quarter-finals of the Atlanta Open. This will be the first-ever meeting between the pair, who each overcame the odds in the previous round to make the final eight of the competition.

Shang beat ATP-ranked number 14 Ben Shelton in straight sets (7-6, 6-4) in the early hours of Friday (UK time), building on his 2-0 (6-1, 6-1) victory over another American, Andres Martin, in the round of 32.

Purcell triumphed against Christopher O'Connell (4-6, 7-5, 6-2) in his first match at the event before an impressive straight-set win against David Goffin (6-3, 6-3) set up a quarter-final tie with Shang.

This contest looks like a difficult one to call, but it's no surprise to see Shang installed as favourite given the consistency displayed by the 19-year-old this year.

I'm backing the teenager to reach the semi-finals, but I do think Purcell can push him to the end. The Australian took a set off Alcaraz at the Cincinnati Open last year, evidence of his ability to go toe-to-toe with the best, and he certainly has the qualities to take Shang to a third set, but I think that will be as good as it gets for the 26-year-old.

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