Tennis Betting Tips: Big hits from Fritz and Lehecka in tight R16 tie

It's round-of-16 day in the Men's Singles at the 2026 Miami Open, with World No. 2 Jannik Sinner headlining the names on show at the Hard Rock Stadium.

Below are Tuesday's Tennis Betting Tips as I pick out two of the eight matches that could get game-heavy... 

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Total Games 3 - Over 23.5 in Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul @ 1/1

Argentine No. 2 Tomas Martin Etcheverry, who put the heartache of three previous ATP Tour final defeats behind him to win his maiden title at the Rio Open last month, is yet to drop a set in Miami, following up his second-round success over Zizou Bergs (7-6, 7-6) with a third-round victory over Rafael Jodar (7-5, 6-4), but as the scorelines of those two triumphs suggest, he's been worked hard in the Magic City, with 26 games followed by 22.

Up next, the 26-year-old faces American No. 4 Tommy Paul, who has really been put through the ringer in Miami.

Paul has been taken to a third set in each of his two matches at the tournament, beating Adrian Mannarino (6-2, 2-6, 6-4) and Raphael Collignon (6-2, 3-6, 7-6) in the second and third round, respectively, to set up a round-of-16 tie with Etcheverry.

Tennis Odds

The 28-year-old played 26 games against Mannarino before recording 30 against Collignon on Sunday, and I'm predicting another close contest with Etcheverry on Tuesday.

The two players have never met before on the ATP Tour, and there isn't a huge difference in ranking with World No. 23 Paul holding superiority over World No. 32 Etcheverry.

Paul has the added advantage of experience and playing in front of a home crowd, but Etcheverry's confidence is sky-high after last month's exploits in Brazil, although that was on his preferred clay surface.

Still, there's a hunger apparent in the Argentine's game, and in the last four matches where he has lost the first set, he has won the second to set up a third and take the total number of games past 23.5, which is what we need to land the above line.

A couple of tiebreaks, as there was in Etecheverry's opening-round victory over Bergs last Saturday, or even a 7-6, 7-5, in either player's favour, would do the trick on Tuesday. Four of Etcheverry's last six sets have gone over 11.5 games - three have been tiebreaks - so he is someone who carries the threat of drawn-out affairs.

Total Games - Over 25.5 in Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz @ 1/1

A battle of two big servers here as World No. 7 Taylor Fritz takes on World No. 22 Jiri Lehecka in the round of 16.

Lehecka hasn't dropped a set in Miami, beating 17-year-old Moise Kouame (6-2, 7-5) and 22-year-old Ethan Quinn (6-3, 7-6), but he's been handed a slightly fortunate route to this stage.

Fritz, on the other hand, had to battle past Botic van de Zandschulp (6-3, 6-7, 6-3) in the second round before overcoming fellow American Reilly Opelka (6-3, 6-4) in a match which seemed destined for a tiebreak or two, or three. He hasn't been in great form this calendar year, perhaps affected by an injury, and I'm not seeing any value in backing him to beat his Czech counterpart on Tuesday.

The number of games could stack up, though, as they often do with the American No. 1, who has played a tiebreak in four of his last six matches, with two going over 25.5 games.

Lehecka, meanwhile, has been involved in three tiebreaks across his last five matches, although, somewhat surprisingly, all five contests have finished in two sets.

Fritz and Lehecka have met four times since the start of 2023, and three have gone over 2.5 sets and over 25.5 games.

The pair traded 2-1 wins last year, with Fritz claiming a 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 success at the Toronto Open in August before going down 4-6, 6-3, 4-6 in the Davis Cup qualifiers the following month.

Could we see another hat-trick of tiebreaks on Tuesday? I wouldn't rule it out, but certainly, over 25.5 games looks more than achievable.

Find more Tennis Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights