Oscars Odds 2026: One Battle After Another huge favourite to win best picture

The 15th of March is shaping up to be another lively night at the 98th Academy Awards, dishing out their legendary Oscar statues as half of Hollywood pretend that they’re not silently rehearsing their “gracious loser” face.

Our resident film connoisseur Shayna Halliwell has already dived into the freshly updated Betfred Oscars Odds 2026 and given the early favourites a good once‑over to see who’s genuinely in the running and who’s just hoping the vibes will carry them over the finish line.

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When are the Oscars taking place?

The Oscars light up 15^th of March 2026 at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles, the annual hotspot where movie stars gather to celebrate cinema and quietly hope their name is inside the envelope.

Who is hosting the Oscars 2026?

The host for 2026 is Conan O’Brien, stepping back into the spotlight to guide the night with his trademark dry humour and the kind of grin that says he’s absolutely ready to roast the front row.

Where can I watch the Oscars 2026 in the UK?

In the UK, the ceremony airs on ITV1, with streaming available on ITVX, making it easy to enjoy the red carpet, the speeches and the inevitable “cut to the losing nominee smiling politely” moments from your couch.

Best Picture Odds

One Battle After Another – 1/5

Where to watch? Available to rent/buy on major streaming platforms.

One Battle After Another charges the awards season with serious momentum. Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s novel “Vineland,” the film mixes dark humour, action and political paranoia as it follows Bob, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, a former revolutionary dragged back into conflict when an old enemy resurfaces. The cast also includes Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor.

With a $130-175 million budget, a $209 million box office and strong reviews (including a 94/100 Rotten Tomatoes score), it has become one of the seasons most talked about contenders. Its 13 Oscar nominations only strengthen its position.

At 1/5, the odds suggest it’s the film to beat, the kind of contender that doesn’t just enter the race but charges ahead, daring anyone else to keep up. With awards momentum, critical acclaim and a director at the top of his game, it’s positioned as the powerhouse of the season.

Sinners - 3/1

Where to watch? Sky Cinema and NOW (formerly Now TV). Also available to rent/buy on major streaming platforms.

Sinners arrives in the awards race with the swagger of a film that knows it has something special. Directed, written and produced by Ryan Coogler, it’s a 2025 American horror drama set in 1932 Mississippi, where identical twin brothers, both played by Michael B. Jordan, return home only to discover a supernatural evil waiting for them.

The film blends period drama, folk horror and a creeping sense of dread, supported by a strong cast including Hailee Steinfield, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosalu and Delroy Lindo. With a $90-100 million budget and a $369 million box office haul, it’s not just a critical darling, it is a commercial force too.

Critics have been very generous, awarding it 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a rating of 7.5/10 on IMDb - it has also already racked up 16 Oscar nominations.

At 3/1, the odds paint is as a serious contender: not the outright favourite, but absolutely the film everyone knows could storm the stage if “One Battle After Another” slip. Its mix of prestige filmmaking and standout performances makes it the kind of wildcard that voters love to surprise themselves with.

Hamnet – 16/1

Where to watch? In cinemas now, or available to rent/buy on major streaming platforms.

This biographical period drama is adapted from Maggie O’Farrel’s 2020 novel and is directed by Chloe Zhao, who brings her signature emotional depth to the story. Set in 16th‑century England, the film follows William Shakespeare and his wife Agnes (Anne) Hathaway, played by Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, as they navigate the grief of losing their 11-year-old, Hamnet.

The film blends intimate family drama with rich period detail, supported by a strong ensemble cast including Emily Watson, Joe Alwyn and Noah Jupe. With a $30-35 million budget and a $93 million box office, it’s been both a critical and commercial success.

Critics have praised its emotional power, Zhao’s direction and Buckley’s standout performance, indicated in its 7.9/10 IMDb rating and 86/100 Rotten Tomatoes score.

At 16/1, Hamnet is very much an "outsider with real bite." It may not be the favourite, but don't count it out, its craftsmanship, emotional depth and awards buzz give it every chance of upsetting the race.

Marty Supreme – 33/1

Where to watch? – Available to rent/buy on major streaming platforms.

This sports comedy set in the 1950s follows Marty Mauser, a wildly driven table tennis prodigy played by Timothee Chalamet, as he fights his way toward world champion status. Directed by Josh Safdie, the film mixes chaotic ambition, sharp humour and the kind of frantic energy Safdie fans expect. The cast includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’zion, Tyler Okonma and Fran Drescher, all orbiting Marty’s increasingly obsessive rise.

The film was a solid box office success and has earned strong critical praise, picking up 9 Oscar nominations and building a reputation as one of the year’s most entertaining underdogs.

At 33/1, it sits firmly in long shot territory, but with enough personality and momentum to make things interesting.

Sentimental Value – 66/1

Where to watch? – Available to buy on Apple Tv or Sky Store

This gently strange family drama from Joachim Trier follows sisters Nora and Agnes as they attempt to reconnect with their estranged father, played by Stellan Skarsgard, who brings just the right amount of “emotionally unavailable but oddly charming” energy. Their reunion spirals into a creative project that’s part film set, part therapy session and part “why did we agree to this?” chaos. Elle Fanning joins the mix as an actress who slowly realises she’s wandered into a family saga far stranger than the script she signed up for.

Critics have embraced its mix of tenderness and eccentricity, praising its performances and Trier’s knack for turning emotional messiness into something oddly beautiful. With a 96/100 Rotten Tomatoes score, a 7.8/10 IMDb rating and 9 Oscar nominations, it’s become one of the year’s most quietly adored contenders.

At 66/1, it’s the outsider with a soft heart and a sharp edge, the kind of film that sneaks up on voters who like their awards hopefuls a little messy, a little magical and very human.

Bugonia – 100/1

Where to watch? - Available to rent or buy on major streaming platforms.

This darkly comic sci‑fi thriller from Yorgos Lanthimos follows two conspiracy obsessed young men who kidnap a powerful CEO, convinced she’s an alien plotting humanity’s destruction. Emma Stone plays the executive at the centre of their unhinged crusade, while Jesse Plemons and Aidan Delbis bring chaotic energy as the would-be saviours of Earth. The film blends alien invasion paranoia with Lanthimos’ signature absurdity, creating a story that’s equal parts unsettling and sharply funny.

With a $45-55 million budget, Bugonia premiered at Venice before its US release in October 2025. It’s been praised for its audacity and biting satire, earning four Oscar nominations and a strong critical reception.

Sitting at 66/1, it’s a long shot on paper, yet the blend of big names, genre peculiarity and Lanthimos’ growing clout gives it just enough glow to stay on the awards radar.

Frankenstein - 100/1

Where to watch? – Netflix

Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein is a lush, gothic romp through Mary Shelley’s classic, complete with dramatic lightning, questionable science and enough candlelit corridors to power a small country. Oscar Isaac plays Victor with the manic energy of a man who definitely shouldn’t be trusted near a lab, while Jacob Elordi gives the creature a mix of heartbreak, fury and “I did not sign up for this.” Mia Goth and Christoph Waltz add their own brand of delightful oddness to the chaos.

Critics have praised its emotional heft and abundant production design, reflected in its 85/100 Rotten Tomatoes score and 7.4/10 IMDb rating.

At 100/1, it’s the charming weirdo of the awards race, lurking and waiting for the perfect moment to jump out and give voters a little jolt.

F1 - 100/1

Where to watch? Available to rent/buy on major streaming platforms.

This one’s basically “What if Brad Pitt just… joined Formula 1?” and honestly, that’s the whole vibe. He plays a comeback driver trying to prove he’s still got it, while Damson Idris is the rookie who’s actually doing the work. It’s loud, shiny and filmed with real F1 cars, which is great for the audience and terrible for whoever had to insure the production.

The cast is packed with big names, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem, actual F1 teams and the whole thing feels like a 2-hour adrenaline shot with a plot attached. Critics like the spectacle, even if it’s not exactly screaming “Oscar bait.”

At 100/1, it’s the chaotic underdog of the awards race, fun, flashy and fully aware it’s here for vibes, not trophies.

Train Dreams – 100/1

Where to watch? Netflix

This adaptation of Denis Johnson’s novel follows Robert Grainier, played with quiet, slightly feral charm by Andrew Garfield, as he wanders through early 1900s Idaho dealing with grief, logging camps and the occasional moment of “did that actually happen or am I losing it?” magic. With Chloé Zhao directing, the film leans into dull, ghostly vibes and that soft, dreamlike frontier weirdness she does so well.

It’s slow atmospheric and emotionally charged in a way that sneaks up on you rather than announcing itself. Critics have praised its mood and restraint, even if it’s not exactly built for a loud awards campaign.

At 100/1, it’s like the quiet kid in the corner of the race, not showy or noisy, but the one you keep thinking about hours later.

You can find all the latest Oscars Odds 2026 at Betfred.com

Here are the nominees and favourites in all the other main categories:

Best Director Odds

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another – 1/20

Ryan Coogler – Sinners – 9/1

Chloe Zhao – Hamnet – 16/1

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme – 33/1

Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value – 66/1

Best Actor Odds

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – 4/6

Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) – 6/4

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) – 10/1

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) – 16/1

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) – 22/1

Best Actress Odds

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) 1/50

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – 14/1

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – 20/1

Emma Stone (Bugonia) – 20/1

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) – 50/1

You can check out all our latest specials betting tips over at Betfred Insights