It is that time of year again as Eurovision week kicks off this Tuesday evening with the first of two semi-finals to set the lineup for the Grand Final on Saturday. Neil Monnery is here with some thoughts about what will happen and the latest betting odds…
Eurovision Semi-Final 1 2023 Betting Tips
- Back Sweden to win at 5/2
- Back Malta to qualify at 2/1
We have to start off with a bit of an anomaly in the betting as Finland are the 4/9 favourites to win SF1 outright even though Sweden are in the same semi-final and are the shortest price to win it all. The main reason for this is the televote is all that matters on both Tuesday and Thursday with the jury votes not in play until Saturday night.
However, Loreen is a huge name who of course has already won Eurovision and getting her back in will surely go down well with the voters around Europe. I like Sweden to cause a small surprise and win Semi-Final 1 outright at 5/2.
Finland will of course qualify as well, the fact both nations are 1/1000 to make it out of Tuesday night with dreams of still winning outright says plenty. Norway make it a third Nordic country at very short odds to go through coming in at 1/500 with Israel also an insanely short price at 1/100.
Ten nations will go through and qualify. You can add both the Czech Republic and Moldova to the list of ‘you can book it’ with both countries coming in at 1/20 but this is where it starts to get interesting.
Nine other nations are looking to lock up a spot in Saturday’s Grand Final and there are only four spaces left if we assume that 1/20 shots are going to be good.
Ireland used to be a prolific Eurovision darling but they’ve been cast adrift in recent years and we are not expecting them to make it through to Saturday, as we offer odds of 7/2 just to be playing in the Grand Final. The song, ‘We Are One’ is pretty mundane with no real catchy beat or much to speak of. I’m not expecting a shock here.
Latvia are also odds against at 5/2 with Azerbaijan the real longshots at 5/1 and neither of their offerings are much to write home about. If you want a second odds against pick beyond Sweden to win SF1 at 5/2 then I quite like the Maltese song at 2/1. It was a real Eurovision feel with a saxophone solo that will attract support.
Beyond that I’m not expect too many surprises on Tuesday but it will be a good indicator for the Grand Final as several of the genuine outright contenders will go through and seeing how the televote goes will help shape the betting market for Saturday night.