South Africa vs Australia Prediction: Wallabies ready to run the Springboks close

Holders South Africa begin their Rugby Championship defence against Australia in the tournament opener in Johannesburg on Saturday.

 The Boks beat Italy (twice) and Georgia in the mid-season Tests and Rassie Erasmus used those fixtures to experiment with selection and the rules, including getting his players to form a line-out pod in open play to set up a driving maul in midfield.

 Australia lost their series with the British & Irish Lions 2-1, but after being undercooked and blown away in Brisbane, went close in Melbourne and smashed the tourists in Sydney.

 That type of improvement cannot be ignored and with the chance of the odd rain shower at Ellis Park, this match could be closer than expected.

Team News

South Africa have selected Manie Libbok at fly-half, with Aphelele Fassi, who has publicly admitted that he has been working on his goal-kicking in case his colleague fails to find his range, at full-back.

Siya Kolisi captains the side, albeit from number eight rather than his usual flank position, and behind the scrum, Andre Esterhuizen runs on in the 12 shirt in place of Damien de Allende.  

Australia have continued their six-two split on the bench after it worked so well against the Lions and have prop Taniela Tupou and lock Will Skelton in the pack, but flanker Rob Valetini remains absent with a calf issue.

Joe Schmidt's biggest calls, partly due to injuries, come in the halves where scrum-half Nic White, who has done a U-turn on his international retirement, partners James O'Connor, who wins his 65th cap 1,099 days after winning his 64th.

South Africa vs Australia Odds

South Africa have won the last four meetings and are 1/8 to make it five on the spin. A first draw since 2017, a year when both contests were tied, is 33/1, with Australia 5/1.

Australia +13 @ 11/8

Australia's incredible improvement over their series with the Lions may not have been good enough to back them at 5/1 to beat South Africa in Johannesburg for the first time since 1963.

However, there was plenty to suggest they can go closer than the traders think and they are 11/8 when given a 13-point start.

All three Tests against the Lions were decided by 10 or fewer points and any rain could prove a leveller.

White is a brilliant kicker from the base, but also arguably the best in the world at restarts and has ample chasers to try and bring into the game and disrupt the hosts aerially.

Selecting Kolisi at number eight and Libbok at fly-half gives South Africa more running options but they are still likely to try to dominate up front.

Australia have aimed to counter that with a six-two split off the bench, a policy that worked so well against the Lions.

There is also the variable that neither Libbok nor O'Connor are hugely reliable from the kicking tee, so there is a real chance that this will turn into an arm wrestle.

Backing the Wallabies to a handicap mark on the right side of evens looks a sensible way to go.

Max Jorgensen anytime tryscorer @ 19/10

White's kicking game could bring the best out of wingers Dylan Pietsch and Max Jorgensen and the latter looks to be a coming force in Australian rugby union.

The son of dual-code star Peter, Sheffield-born Max scored tries in the first and third Tests against the Lions and broke English fans' hearts with his late match-winning try at Twickenham last November.

Good in the air and fast across the ground, Jorgensen will relish playing at altitude on Ellis Park's firm pitch.

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