England and Samoa bring the curtain down on their Pool D campaign at the 2023 Rugby World Cup when they clash at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve-d’Ascq on Saturday.

Match odds

England have won all eight previous meetings against Samoa and it’s no surprise that the Red Rose are 1/33 to extend that record to nine. The tie is priced at 28/1 and Samoa are 11/1.

In the Handicap market, England are 5/6 to triumph at -21.5, while Samoa are 20/21 to pick up the win at +21.5.

Jonny May, Joe Marchant and Jamie George are all odds-on to score a try anytime, the trio 4/6, 4/5 and 4/5 respectively, while full-back Freddie Steward is one of six England players priced at 6/4.

Duncan Paia’aua has crossed the whitewash twice for Samoa at this World Cup and he is 3/1 to grab his third try in France, a country he knows well as he plays his club rugby for Toulon.

Team news

Owen Farrell is the only survivor from England’s starting XV that thrashed Chile and he has been moved to inside centre, with Manu Tuilagi at 13.

Steward returns at full-back in place of Marcus Smith; Marchant and May are on the wings, while George Ford is at fly-half and Alex Mitchell is the scrum-half.

In the pack, Ellis Genge, George and Dan Cole form the front row; Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum start at four and five, with Courtney Lawes and Tom Curry the two flankers and Ben Earls at No.8.

Samoa have made nine alterations from the narrow loss to Japan, with Jordan Lay, Sama Malolo and Michael Alaalatoa making up the front row and Sam Slade and Brian Alainu’u’ese starting at four and five respectively.

In the backs, Lima Sopoaga has replaced Christian Lealiifano at fly-half, Neria Fomai and Nigel Ah-Wong take up the wing positions and Danny Toala comes in at inside centre.

Ben Lam is one of the biggest absentees after he was handed a three-game ban by World Rugby after his red card for a dangerous tackle against Japan.

Handicap – Samoa +19.5 @ 11/10

Samoa need to rack up some tries in a big victory over England and some early pressing against the Pool D winners could present some scoring opportunities.

Seilala Mapusua’s side are unlikely to take a step back in this contest and while that could leave them exposed at the back on occasions, it should see them have plenty of chances to run at this England defence.

The Red Rose have named a strong XV – Steve Borthwick looking to get his star players fine-tuned for the quarter-finals – but they don’t necessarily have to bust a gut in this one and they are unlikely to veer away from a pragmatic style of play that has worked to date.

Yes, England blew Chile away last time out, but every team has in this group, and Borthwick’s side were pushed close by Argentina and Japan.

At 19.5 on the handicap, Samoa look like a good option to take in this one as they have far more riding on this than England.

Duncan Paia’aua to score a try anytime @ 3/1

One of Samoa’s most dangerous players is Toulon star Duncan Paia’aua, who has crossed the whitewash against Chile and Japan in the tournament.

Blessed with pace and power, the 28-year-old is a handful for any defence and England could find themselves under the cosh if Paia’aua has ball in hand and space to run into.

The New Zealand-born back has made 28 runs across the three matches, only Fritz Lee (29) has more for Samoa, while he has made a joint-high five offloads.