Chiefs vs Reds Prediction: Reds to disrupt Chiefs in Hamilton

The first Super Rugby quarter-final will be played in Hamilton, New Zealand at FMG Stadium Waikato on Friday (08:05, Sky Sports Action). The Chiefs will host the Queensland Reds in what promises to be a box-office contest – as fourth takes on fifth.

Only three points separated these sides in the regular season of Super Rugby adding to just how tight it is between them. Check out my Chiefs vs Reds prediction and all the latest team news below.

The Chiefs had an up-and-down season in my opinion. They showed their class on numerous occasions, putting a number of sides to the sword; however, they also demonstrated they had weaknesses that other teams were able to exploit. Losing five games would not have been on the Chiefs’ plan this season, who certainly had aspirations of securing a top-two berth.

However, if you allow the McKenzie front-foot ball and leave space in the wider channels – they are arguably the deadliest side in the competition.

The Reds will be fairly pleased with their season overall, as they confirmed a playoff spot comfortably. Although they would have loved to have hosted this contest in Brisbane, I firmly believe they are a side that relishes an underdog status and pulling off the unexpected.

Les Kiss has implemented a new strategy and ethos in his first season in Queensland and it's clear to see that it’s paying off. He believes in playing heads-up rugby and backs his players to take opportunities when they are presented.

The Reds won this fixture earlier in the season in Brisbane by six points and they’ve demonstrated enough to me that I believe they will be extremely competitive in this game – and can potentially pull off an upset.

Team News:

Chiefs

The Chiefs side is as expected and raring to go. They did give a few players a rest last week in their dead-rubber game at Eden Park and even pulled Narawa and Stephenson just before kick-off to keep them fresh for this contest.

Ross, Taukei’aho and Dyer will be in the front row, with Tupou and Vaa’i in the second row. Finau, Jacobson and Sititi will be in the back row. Many expected Jacobson to be cited last week for a questionable clear-out on Christie but nothing availed.

Ratima and McKenzie will be in the half-back spots as usual, with Poihipi and Lienart-Brown in the midfield – meaning Tupea has to settle for a bench spot. Chiefs’ first choice back-three line-up as usual - of Nanai-Seturo, Narawa and Stevenson. The Reds will need to be mindful of aimless kicking and poor kick chases to limit the opportunities the deadly trio gets in open space.

Reds

Kiss can name a strong side to take to Hamilton but I’m sure he would prefer to have his No.8 talisman in Harry Wilson who recently had an operation on his broken arm. Hodgmon, Faessler and Toomaga-Allen will combine in the front row – meaning Nonggorr drops to the bench this week, whilst Uru and Smith will be in the second row.

Wright, McReight will be on the flanks and Bryant will be at No.8. The Reds will be hoping Fraser McReight can emulate some of his recent form to disrupt the Chiefs flow. He has developed into one of the best tacklers in the game and is crucial in this Reds system.

McDermott and Lynagh continue as the half-backs, along with Paisami and Flook in the centres. Grealy remains on the left wing and Ryan (AKA The Junkyard Dog) will be on the right wing. Finally, Campbell will be at 15 again this week and is in fine form heading into the Super Rugby playoffs.

Chiefs vs Reds Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Chiefs vs Reds page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Chiefs are 1/4 to win inside 80 minutes on Friday, giving them an implied win probability of 80%, while the Reds are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to triumph themselves.

A draw, which would send the tie to extra-time, is available at 22/1.

Reds +12 @ 20/21

You have to go back to 2018 for the last time the Chiefs covered this handicap against the Reds, with the last six encounters all being by less than 10 points.

I expect a similar result tomorrow, with the Reds competing both up-front and out-wide to frustrate the side from Hamilton.

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights.