Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction: 15/2 tip for an upset win at Leichhardt

Having received a Round 1 bye, the 2026 NRL Premiership season gets underway for Wests Tigers on Saturday when they welcome North Queensland Cowboys to Leichhardt Oval (15:00 local, 04:00 GMT, Watch NRL).
The Cowboys’ campaign got underway in Las Vegas, where they fell short against a resurgent Newcastle Knights, so the visitors have early ground to make up. My Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys predictions follow below, complete with full team news and Betfred’s match odds.
Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Odds
The Tigers receive favouritism from Betfred for Saturday’s early kick-off, with 4/7 the price for a home win. That implies a 63.6% probability of Benji Marshall’s side adding to their two bye points.
You can get 6/4 about a Cowboys victory, and it’s 16/1 for a draw in 80 minutes and a nail-biting golden-point finale.
The Cowboys are handed a 4.5-point start in the two-way handicap, with their odds cut to 5/6 against that backdrop. Wests are 10/11 to overcome the difference.
Team News
After an impressive undefeated run through the Pre-Season Challenge, Wests are coming into this with players in form. In theory, at least.
Youngsters Luke Laulilii and Heamasi Makasini have been given the go-ahead by Marshall to start in the three-quarters. Taylan May and Sunia Turuva take up the other outside-back spots, while much will be asked of half-back pairing Jarome Luai and Adam Doueihi.
Former Wigan Warrior and Newcastle Knight Kai Pearce-Paul should make his Tigers debut after shaking off a calf issue.
Todd Payten’s Cowboys came back from Sin City with Thomas Mikaele limping heavily after an MCL injury suffered in a cannonball tackle.
While the timetable for his return is not a particularly long one, he should be out for a few weeks at least. So Soni Luke comes off the bench to replace the former Warrington Wolves front rower.
The other scare was in relation to full-back Scott Drinkwater, but he’s been named at number one for the trip south and should see out the 80.
Cowboys to Win @ 7/5
I don’t know. I just liked the look of the Cowboys in Vegas a fortnight ago.
Sure, they lost. And they lost to a Knights side many are reserving judgement on.
But they have a really promising spine in Drinkwater, Jake Clifford, Tom Dearden, Reed Mahoney and Reuben Cotter.
Add in the muscle of Coen Hess and Jason Taumalolo in the front row, even if the Tonga star is beyond his peak, and you have a really tough prospect to overcome.
Against a Wests side who aced pre-season but didn’t exactly set the heather alight in 2025, I think there’s every chance the Cowboys can repeat their 34-28 Leichhardt success of last August.
They do have a five-game winning run going against the Tigers, after all.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Cowboys by 1-5 @ 15/2
In the search for value, I’m willing to put a stake on a narrow North Queensland win.
There has been a bit about the Tigers in the trial matches, so I can see why they have the bookies’ hearts. But they need to replicate that in competitive footy before I can back them against a Cowboys team which looks capable of picking off a few extra wins this year.
The 15/2 odds look good to me too, so I’m willing to take that chance against the pretty low implied probability of 11.8%.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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