Warriors vs Panthers Prediction: 19/10 bet says champs’ five-star bid goes on

The Penrith Panthers’ stranglehold on the NRL title could come to an end on Saturday when they face the New Zealand Warriors in the first of this year’s elimination finals at Mount Smart Stadium (18:05 local, 07:05 BST, live on Sky Sports Mix).

After finishing seventh in the regular season, Ivan Cleary’s side must win three straight away games to reach the Grand Final in a bid to win a fifth consecutive title. My Warriors vs Panthers predictions follow below, alongside the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Warriors vs Panthers Odds

It can’t be often that the away side are 1/3 to win an NRL finals fixture, but that’s the reality of this match.

The Panthers are just programmed to succeed at this time of the year, and it is with that in mind that Betfred’s oddsmakers have a Penrith win at a 75% implied probability.

The Warriors are a huge price – 12/5 – to make the most of home advantage, with the draw a 20/1 prospect.

The handicap market says a lot about how this is expected to go, with the Warriors handed an 8.5-point start in return for a shortening of their price to 4/5. The Panthers are 20/21 to overcome the two-score disadvantage.

Cleary’s champions are 8/11 to hold the lead at half-time and go on to win, while they’re a 6/4 chance to win both halves.

Team News

Warriors boss Andrew Webster has the benefit of having two extra names to call upon for what is a revenge mission following Penrith’s 32-6 qualifying-final win over his side two years ago.

Jackson Ford is back from suspension and Wayde Egan returns from a hip injury, so both have been included in the front row on the 19-player squad list.

In corresponding switches, Sam Healey and Tanner Stowers-Smith are among the interchange options.

Rocco Berry misses out with a shoulder injury, so Kurt Capewell moves to the centres and Selumiela Halasima steps up to replace Capewell in the second row.

Brian To’o and Liam Martin have overcome small injury complaints thanks in part to being given last week off, so both are included in the provisional starting XIII.

There’s no Mitch Kenny due to a hamstring injury, so Luke Sommerton comes in at nine.

Luke Garner is on the bench, while Thomas Jenkins is 18th man in the changes which allow for the returns of To’o and Martin.

Rugby League Odds

Panthers by 1-12 @ 19/10

Much as I normally like to give the Warriors the benefit of the doubt in home fixtures in particular, I just can’t see beyond the champs in this one.

The Wahs are 2-5 in their last seven games at Mount Smart, which is a real anomaly for them. And with the Panthers coming to town they will need a massive turnaround in that form to ensure that their season continues.

They have already been beaten by Penrith on home soil this term, with a 28-18 defeat in Round 16 being one of the results which helped to drag the Warriors down from second to sixth over the course of the last three months.

The home fans can make this arena a proper cauldron, but that might only get Webster’s side so far. And that’s why I think they can hang in there but not quite get over the top of the four-time reigning champs.

While this isn’t Penrith quite as we’ve known them for the previous four years, it might take more than the Wahs have to end their hopes of five-for-five.

Warriors under 16.5 total points @ 5/6

In only one of 13 play-off fixtures since losing the 2020 Grand Final have the Panthers conceded more than 16 points.

And it almost goes without saying that that came in the epic 2023 GF in which they responded to Ezra Mam’s 11-minute hat-trick by turning a 24-8 deficit into a 26-24 win in an extraordinary final-quarter fightback.

They might well have shipped 20-plus in four straight matches, and that poor first half of the season in a defensive sense helped to put them bottom of the pile by May, but it is in September and October that Penrith normally show their best face.

So I’m happy to get on them to keep the Warriors down to a maximum of three scores, and from that bedrock the Panthers should go on and progress to the semi-finals.

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You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.