Tigers vs Cowboys Prediction: 21/10 tip will help neither side

The Wests Tigers need to win their last three matches by big margins and hope for a string of other results to go their way if they are to make the NRL Premiership finals. First up, a victory is needed when the North Queensland Cowboys visit Leichhardt Oval on Sunday (16:05 local, 07:05 BST).

My Tigers vs Cowboys predictions follow, as do the full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds, and it might not be quite what Wests fans will be hoping to see.

Tigers vs Cowboys Odds

It’s an interesting match-winner market given what’s at stake for the Tigers, with the home side having the huge edge in terms of motivation.

Wests are 8/11 for the win, with the Cowboys 6/5 for the upset victory in 80 minutes.

The draw is 18/1, and in terms of the handicap market there is just a 4.5-point start handed to North Queensland. That shows how close the bookies think this one could be, with the visitors 5/6 to make the most of that advantage and the Tigers 20/21 to win by enough to overcome the extra score.

Team News

Benji Marshall has named the same initial 17 which beat Manly Sea Eagles last week, meaning Jarome Luai and Adam Doueihi will again lead the side around from the halves.

There were concerns that Starford To’a wouldn’t make this one having been withdrawn early on Sunday. But the centre has overcome the shoulder injury which had forced him off and should start once more.

Cowboys head coach Todd Payten also looks set to roll out an unchanged side, but that comes as little surprise given their convincing 38-4 win over the Newcastle Knights a week ago.

Former Leigh Centurion and Leopard Kai O’Donnell is the 18th player, with Nicholas Lenaz among those hoping for a late call from the reserve list.

Rugby League Odds

Tigers by 1-12 @ 21/10

The Tigers need a big win but haven’t shown themselves to be particularly capable of such a result this season.

Since beating Parramatta Eels 32-6 in round two, their biggest victory margin is just 16 points. And while I think they’ll have enough to win the game, the 0.01% chance they have of reaching the finals will probably be divided by another 100 or so on Sunday.

The Betfred traders have this one about right, I reckon. That 4.5-point handicap margin shouldn’t be far wide of the mark, and I believe it could be a couple of points either side of that.

Expect Luai and Doueihi to have a big impact on them just about getting over the top of the Cowboys, who for their part showed last week that they still have a performance in them.

The 21/10 about a one-or-two-score victory implies a 32.3% probability, and I just can’t back them winning by any more than that.

Tigers-Tigers @ 11/10

If Wests are in any way taking their slim play-off hopes seriously they will want to come out of the blocks firing.

Seven of their nine wins this season have come off the back of half-time leads, and this could be yet another that sees them get ahead and stay there.

In truth, this is about getting wins together before the season ends. Any lingering finals possibilities can be dreamed about in two weeks’ time if there remains a mathematical chance.

In the meantime, they need to boost some confidence with a performance showing confidence from the first whistle, and that’s where the double result in favour of the home side comes into the thinking.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.