York Knights vs Castleford Tigers Prediction: Mapapalangi purple patch to continue

Two of the Betfred Super League's strugglers meet in York on Saturday afternoon as the Knights host Castleford Tigers at the LNER Community Stadium with both sides bidding to secure a rare win (15:00 BST, Sky Sports+).

Cas have lost heavily in back-to-back games since their shock victory at Wigan, while York actually come into this one off the back of a home win over Toulouse and will be confident of repeating that level of performance in front of their passionate home crowd. My York Knights vs Castleford Tigers predictions are below, along with the latest match odds from Betfred and full team news.

York Knights vs Castleford Tigers Odds

The Knights are 21/20 for this one, with Cas 10/11 favourites for the win in normal time. It's 12/1 for extra-time to be needed to separate the pair.

Team News

York boss Mark Applegarth struggled to get a team out a couple of weeks ago but a free weekend since has allowed some injured bodies to heal.

Key spine players Will Dagger and Toa Mata'afa both return to the squad, as do centre Sam Wood, loan pair King Vuniyayawa and Will Roberts, plus Kieran Hudson.

Both Sam Cook and Myles Harrison are injured while the on-loan Ben Littlewood also picked up an injury and misses out.

Tigers boss Ryan Carr has mixed injury news as he welcomes back some key faces but is without others.

There's no Mikaele Ravalawa, Jimmy Beckett or loanee Tom Nicholson-Watton, but the returns of Louis Senior, George Hirst, Jack Ashworth and George Lawler are timely boosts.

Veteran Ash Golding is also included, but there is still no Fletcher Rooney, Joe Westerman nor Liam Hood.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-Way Alternative 2: York -2 @ 13/10

This feels like one of the tougher games of the weekend to call, with both sides haemorrhaging points and struggling for wins. The home side get a two-point start on the handicap with Betfred and that may be enough to sway me to back them, although it still feels like a flip of a coin.

Both teams have managed three wins from 10 games so far, and the Tigers especially have defended horribly in the last two games. A win at Wigan would not have been backed by anyone last month, and the way that was followed up has been baffling - Cas shipping a half century of points to both Hull FC and Hull KR in the two games since.

So that will give York real hope of grinding out a win here. I don't think either of these sides are as bad as their current positions in the table, certainly any Castleford side capable of winning at Wigan is more than capable of winning at York.

But the Knights know how to score points - 60 in their last three matches is a tidy return when you consider two of those ended in defeat. So that, plus home advantage, and a Cas side who have leaked a century of points in their last 160 minutes of Betfred Super League action, is making me lean towards an upset here.

Krystian Mapapalangi Anytime Tryscorer @ 1/1

The bright spark in a slog of a season for Castleford has been the try-scoring form of Krystian Mapapalangi.

The former NRL flyer is still only 23 and the Tigers moved quickly this month to tie him down to a new deal until 2029. The Aussie has run in six tries in 11 appearances in Cas colours and has been a consistent recent returner for followers of this column with five of those tries coming in just the last three games - and thankfully we have backed him each time.

Being away from home adds a bit of value to his odds too, so Mapapalangi is my pick again at 1/1.

Other good options to consider are new signing Phoenix Laulu-Togagag'e (6/4) while after two tries at St Helens last time out, forward Jesse Dee could be a left-field pick for York at 3/1.

Find more Rugby League Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights