Storm vs Bulldogs Prediction: 19/10 says Storm celebrate home berth

After their pulsating victory over the reigning champions last week, the Melbourne Storm could clinch a home qualifying final spot at AAMI Park on Friday (20:00 local, 11:00 BST) by beating a Canterbury Bulldogs side suffering a dip in form at the worst possible time.

Cameron Ciraldo’s troops have lost two of three matches and four of their last eight having led the way for most of the season, and now it’s the Storm who are looking primed for a real title tilt. My Storm vs Bulldogs predictions follow with comprehensive team news and Betfred’s full match odds.

Storm vs Bulldogs Odds

Craig Bellamy’s home side are massive favourites, and you can see why given their very differing form to their visitors. The Storm are 1/2 to build on their 10 wins in the past 11 matches with another two competition points in normal time.

The Bulldogs can be backed at 17/10 to make a big statement in the race to finish second on the ladder, while the draw in 80 minutes is an 18/1 chance.

The Storm are giving up 6.5 points on the standard two-way handicap but are 10/11 to overcome the disadvantage. The Doggies are 5/6 to make the most of the start handed to them.

Team News

Cameron Munster is listed at full-back in the initial squad since Ryan Papenhuyzen’s inclusion is still uncertain as he returns from concussion.

The 27-year-old is one of the reserves for the time being but could get the nod to start, which would move Munster back into the halves.

An ankle injury to Shawn Blore means he will be missing, meaning Joe Chan will be in the second row and Bronson Garlick is among the interchanges with Nelson Asofa-Solomona on standby.

Sitili Tupouniua and Marcelo Montoya are back in the squad after recovering from injuries which have ruled them out of the Bulldogs side in recent weeks.

Tupouniua has missed four matches with a hamstring problem, while Montoya last played in Round 18 before suffering a neck injury.

Toby Sexton joins the pair as one of the options among the interchanges, with Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin the starting halves as they have been for the last five fixtures.

Rugby League Odds

Storm by 1-12 @ 19/10

I find it hard to back the Bulldogs just now. Having looked magnificent for around four months of the season they have not quite dropped off a cliff, but they are a shadow of the team they were until the second State of Origin break.

It is definitely a boost to have Tupouniua and Montoya back available, but it is the Storm who come into this one with the form, belief and fear factor of a team truly ready to burst into the finals series in style.

They’re not blowing away opponents, necessarily. But what they are doing is showing their stickability in key moments and knack to get over the line whatever the game situation.

The Dogs should be a huge hurdle, but I just feel that the Storm will have all the answers when it matters most. After all, they have managed to do that in 10 of the last 11 games and even in the one loss they were barely edged out by the Sea Eagles in Round 20.

I have the Storm to score by around one score, and the 1-12 bracket gives us a buffer in return for a decent 19/10 price which implies a 34.5% probability.

Storm Over 26.5 Points @ 7/5

The last few Storm wins have come in low-scoring fashion. After sneaking past the Eels 16-10, they then beat the Broncos 22-2 and saw off the Panthers in golden-point 22-18 last time out.

But the Bulldogs’ issues of late have been thanks in part to a slack defensive structure, and Melbourne could have the opportunity to make a few more breaks on Friday.

The Storm have breached the line plenty of times of late despite the returns not always being there – think Xavier Coates coaxing hamstring-busting efforts out of Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds against Brisbane – so it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if they cross for five tries or more.

At 7/5 that’s tempting enough for me, with the 41.7% probability on the lower edge.

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