Storm vs Bulldogs Prediction: Get on Katoa and Melbourne to book last-four spot

The NRL season crescendo begins on Friday when the Melbourne Storm host the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs in the first of this week’s qualifying finals at AAMI Park (19:50 local, 10:50 BST, live on Sky Sports+ HD).

This second-versus-third clash throws together a Bulldogs side which started the campaign with nine wins in 10, and the Storm, who themselves had an 11-from-12 stretch in the second half of the season. My Storm vs Bulldogs predictions can be found below, complete with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Storm vs Bulldogs Odds

The Storm are heavily backed for the win, with home advantage and a better run of recent form counting for a lot.

Melbourne are 8/15 to get the job done in 80 minutes and march on to the preliminary finals in two weeks’ time.

You can get 13/8 about the Bulldogs becoming the first team since the North Queensland Cowboys in 2022 (32-30 over the Cronulla Sharks) to win a qualifying final away from home.

The prospect of a draw in regular time and golden-point extra-time is 16/1, while the Storm’s top tryscorer, Xavier Coates, is the 4/6 favourite to cross at anytime.

The flying winger is 6/1 for the first try, with teammate Will Warbrick 7/1.

Team News

Craig Bellamy is having to go without two of his main starters in the spine of the Storm team, with Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen both missing.

Papenhuyzen is under concussion protocols, so Nick Meaney switches from centre to full-back and Joe Chan steps up into the starting XIII. Jack Howarth is among the reserves so could be preferred to Chan depending on how he recovers from a groin complaint before decision time.

Hughes’ absence allows Tyran Wishart to step into the starting halves. The son of former Kangaroos star Rod Wishart numbers just 26 starts among his 83 NRL appearances to date, but the loss of the Kiwi number seven gives him a shot here.

Harry Grant returns from suspension to regain the nine shirt, while Stefano Utoikamanu is back after being rested for the defeat to the Brisbane Broncos. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is banned, so Tui Kamikamica is named on the bench alongside Bronson Garlick, who filled in for Grant last week.

The Dogs are set to make a few changes due to the absences of ankle injury victim Marcelo Montoya and Bronson Xerri, who is under concussion protocols. Enari Tuala is included at centre, with Jethro Rinakama and Blake Wilson on the wings.

Jacob Kiraz is named as a reserve but could be promoted nearer kick-off time if he can prove he is fully recovered from an ankle injury which kept him out of the loss to the Sharks last week.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-way: Storm -6 @ 11/10

There is a ‘Been there, done that’ element to tipping the Storm in this fixture. Barring the salary-cap scandal of 2010, Melbourne have competed in every finals series for the past 23 years and it is rare for them not to be in the preliminary finals at least.

Sure, they have no Hughes or Papenhuyzen available for Friday’s fixture, but their form prior to the last two weeks has been exemplary. That run of 11 wins in 12 up to the second-half collapse against the Roosters in Round 26 is so much of what the Storm are about.

Were the Bulldogs heading into this match with the kind of form they exhibited in those early weeks of the season, I might be backing an away win.

But in truth, the Storm should still have too much for them. And in this round of the bracket you often find a home team make the most of that back-of-the-mind feeling in the visitors that there’s always a home match to fall back on next week if they’re not quite 100 per cent.

So with the weapons still available to Bellamy, I’m thinking the Storm take this one by a couple of scores. And the main three-way handicap bracket gives us a healthy 11/10.

Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer @ 5/4

It’s tempting to back Xavier Coates for an anytime try given his return of 19 in 19 appearances this season, but I’m on the hunt for a little more value than his 4/6.

Back in the 20-14 success over the Bulldogs in round 25, Katoa was a scorer as the Storm all-but assured themselves of a home tie at this stage of the comp.

He’s crossed for a total of a dozen tries for a second consecutive season, with those 12 coming in 11 separate matches. That’s a great return for a second-rower.

I’m on him to score again on Friday, with the Dogs no different to many of the NRL teams in conceding a high volume of their points out on the edges.

Katoa is a massive threat, and the 5/4 available for him to cross implying a 44.4% probability that I make to be on the low side given his record this term of scoring in 47.9% of his appearances.

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