Storm vs Broncos Prediction: 7/1 Coates pick leads Grand Final tips

There will finally be a new look about the NRL Grand Final on Sunday as the Melbourne Storm face the Brisbane Broncos at Accor Stadium to find out who replaces Penrith as rugby league’s kings after four years of Panthers dominance (18:30 local, 09:30 BST, live on Sky Sports Mix).

Brisbane ended the champions’ run in last Sunday’s Preliminary Final and the final 80 (or more) minutes will decide the destiny of the Provan-Summons Trophy. My Storm vs Broncos predictions follow, with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Storm vs Broncos Odds

The Storm go into the Grand Final as the narrow favourites, with the four-time champions priced at 4/6 for the victory. That makes a Melbourne win a 60% implied shot.

The Broncos are 5/4 to follow up their sensational comeback success over the Panthers with GF glory, while it’s 18/1 for the 80-minute draw and a nerve-shredding period of extra time.

Melbourne winger Xavier Coates is the most heavily-backed player to score first. He’s a 7/1 chance for the opening try, with teammate Will Warbrick at 8/1.

Storm full-back Ryan Papenhuyzen is one of three 9/1 bets for the first try, alongside Broncos pair Josiah Karapani and Reece Walsh.

Team News

What changes for the Storm after their Preliminary Final win over the Cronulla Sharks? Nada. Nothing. Nichts. Niente.

Craig Bellamy is preparing to run out the same 17 which saw off the Sharks 22-14 at AAMI Park last Friday, with Grant Anderson set to replace Joe Chan as 18th player in what is the closest thing Melbourne have to ‘team news’.

Over in the opposing dressing room, Michael Maguire’s side will be boosted by the return of Patrick Carrigan after suspension. In the corresponding move, Tyson Smoothy moves to the bench with Ben Talty out of the 17.

For the third time in this finals series, Jesse Arthars is 18th player, and Selwyn Cobbo is handed the number 21 as one of the reserves left waiting and hoping for a late alteration.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-way: Storm -4 @ 11/10

In their Preliminary Final clash with four-time back-to-back defending champions Penrith, I backed the Broncos to lose with a four-point start. And it looked good for a long time before that epic comeback.

So you may say I haven’t learned my lesson, but I’m going with the same again in Sunday’s big dance.

The Broncos have had one hell of a ride so far, beating the Minor Premiers and the dominant side of the era, but this Storm outfit reflect a culture of excellence around the club.

They’ve competed in so many Grand Finals before now that nothing can come as a surprise, and they’ve shown time and again this season that they can deal with many a difficult moment.

They have the recent history of having downed the Broncos at AAMI Park in August, even if they surely won’t get the benefit of two hamstring injuries in two seconds to the Brisbane starting halves as happened back in Round 23.

As with so many big finals, I’ve got to go with who I think will get over the line if both teams play to their best. And that is the Storm, to the point that the 11/10 offered for a win of five or more seems generous to me.

Xavier Coates first tryscorer @ 7/1

With 20 tries in 21 games, there’s no doubting who has been the finisher extraordinaire for the Storm this season.

When the going got hairy in the latter half of the season, Coates’ six tries in four games helped to get his side over the line at some pivotal moments.

He was a tryscorer in the 16-10 win over the Eels, got two in the 22-2 success over the Broncos, another brace in the extraordinary golden-point contest with the Panthers and then crossed once more to help edge out the Bulldogs by six in round 25.

And he was on the mark again last week as the Storm held off a determined Sharks to reach the GF.

It’s tempting to play it safe and go with Coates to score at any time, but with few tries likely and the 13-time Queensland State of Origin star proving time and again that he can be the key to unlock a tight defence, I like the look of the value bet.

I’m on Coates for the opener at 7/1 at an implied probability of 12.5%.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.