Rabbitohs vs Dragons Prediction: Get behind 21/10 St George win on derby day

While finals football is out of the question for the South Sydney Rabbitohs and St George Illawarra Dragons, their old rivalry is renewed at Accor Stadium on Thursday in Round 25 of the NRL Premiership season (19:50 local, 10:50 BST).

The Dragons’ outside shot at the top eight was killed by defeat to the New Zealand Warriors last week, while Souths came from behind to edge the Parramatta Eels. My Rabbitohs vs Dragons predictions will be all about the fierce undertones of this derby, and they are below with all the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Rabbitohs vs Dragons Odds

The bookies give the Rabbitohs the slight edge for this one. Betfred have the Bunnies priced at 5/6 against the Dragons’ 1/1.

You can pick up the draw at 18/1, while the handicap brackets are understandably set with a very minimal differential.

The Rabbitohs are giving up just a 1.5-point edge on the standard two-way grouping, with their odds in that scenario moving to 10/11 and the Dragons being available at 5/6 with the slight head-start.

Team News

The speedy return of Keaon Koloamatangi is the big news for the Rabbitohs. Head coach Wayne Bennett is able to name the prop forward, who was initially expected to be out for the season with an ankle injury but has instead missed just four matches.

Lachlan Hubner is also included have returned from concussion protocols. He’ll start at loose forward, with Jai Arrow moving out to the second row.

Cody Walker is a substitute once more, while Tallis Duncan will start at centre having finished the game there last week after Bayleigh Bentley-Hape received a head knock.

There’s still no Latrell Mitchell due to his back issues, while Liam Le Blanc is done for 2025 with a shoulder complaint.

Dragons coach Shane Flanagan has a raft of issues due to head injuries sustained by Hamish Stewart, Hame Sele and Jack de Belin.

All three are under concussion protocols on Thursday, so in come Jacob Halangahu and Ben Murdoch-Masila, with Blake Lawrie and Tyrell Sloan among the interchange options.

Rugby League Odds

Dragons by 1-12 @ 21/10

Back-to-back Rabbitohs wins have clouded the issue somewhat, but we need to look at who the Bunnies have beaten.

The Eels, their Round 24 opponents, are 14th and the Titans, who they edged out six days prior, are 17th. Prior to that they fell to nine straight losses.

The wins may have boosted the energy reserves somewhat, but in truth this bruised and battered Rabbitohs side is pretty much limping to the season’s end.

Their visitors have not been all that much better, but before being pipped to the line by the Warriors last week they recorded a couple of excellent wins against the Raiders and Sharks.

As such, I’m expecting the Dragons to be the ones to get over the top in this one. It won’t be by much, but I see Kyle Flanagan and Damien Cook being instrumental in helping them hold the Rabbits are arm’s length.

There’s great value in the 21/10 at an implied probability of 32.3% for the Red V to win by less than three scores.

Under 41.5 Total Points @ 10/11

There’s a chance that two teams averaging more than 24 points per game conceded allow each other a fair bit of room in attack.

But when you consider that neither has shown the sort of consistency with the ball which would suggest they can take advantage, then I’m more willing to suggest this one will be a low-scoring contest.

At 21.62 ppg, the Dragons are bang average in the league (ninth of 17). Meanwhile. the Rabbitohs have the second-worst attack going, with just 17.32 ppg.

With a derby atmosphere to contend with the intensity ratcheting up as a result, I predict two edgy offensive lines and not many points.

The under at 10/11 implies a 52.4% chance of 41 or fewer being scored, and I say that’s in the favour of the punter.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.