New South Wales vs Queensland RL Prediction: Blues to secure Sydney success

The 2025 State of Origin series comes down to a mouth-watering decider on Wednesday morning (11:05 BST, Sky Sports +) as New South Wales host old rivals Queensland RL at Accor Stadium.

Alex Jack provides his best bets in his New South Wales vs Queensland RL prediction piece, as well as all the essential team news and match odds for the showdown in Sydney.

Team News

Starting with the hosts New South Wales, the Blues go with a pack of Isaah Yeo, Angus Crichton, Liam Martin, Payne Haas, Reece Robson and Max King.

In the backs, the Blues have Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai forming the half-backs, while Zac Lomax, Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Brian To’o and Dylan Edwards complete the lineup.

As for the visitors, the Maroons have gone with a pack consisting of Trent Loiero, Kurt Capewell, Reuben Cotter, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Harry Grant and Josh Papalii.

Tom Dearden, Cameron Munster, Valentine Holmes, Gehamat Sibasaki, Robert Toia, Xavier Coates and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow complete the forward.

New South Wales vs Queensland Odds

New South Wales are the 4/11 favourites to win on home turf in Sydney, with the visiting Queenslanders 23/10 and the draw 18/1.

New South Wales -8 handicap @ 21/10

After a thrilling 26-24 win for Queensland on neutral territory in Perth in Game 2, the series comes to a highly anticipated conclusion on Wednesday in Sydney.

The Blues had a first half to forget at Optus Stadium in that last meeting, trailing 26-6 at the break, and they know a stronger start will be essential if they are to claim the series.

Accor Stadium holds good memories for New South Wales, having won four of their last six meetings there against the Maroons.

Billy Slater has not been afraid to roll the dice with his selections in this series but his luck might just run out on Wednesday, with injuries not helping Queensland’s cause.

New South Wales have a more settled team and on the back of their positive second half in Perth, they can claim the win and cover the handicap in this decider.

Brian To’o first tryscorer @ 13/2

Almost the hero to deliver what would have been a famous comeback victory in Perth, Brian To’o will be looking to produce another impressive performance in Game 3.

Scoring a hat-trick of tries, including two in the second half, To’o was unfortunate not to come away with the Man of the Match award at Optus Stadium.

The Penrith Panthers star scored the opening try in Game 2 on the west coast and is great value to get the Blues off to a flying start on Wednesday by scoring the opener at Accor Stadium.

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