Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Prediction: Hosts to go 24 straight on opening night

After a magical opening to the season in Las Vegas, the NRL Premiership returns to Australian shores on Thursday when the Melbourne Storm host the Parramatta Eels at AAMI Park (20:00 local, 09:00 GMT, Sky Sports+).

The Storm are still licking their wounds after a heartbreaking Grand Final defeat to the Brisbane Broncos last year, while the Eels have ground to make up after finishing 11th. Here are my Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels predictions, the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Odds

Craig Bellamy’s side are massive favourites to get off the mark with two points. Unbelievably, they haven’t lost a Round 1 fixture in 23 years and Betfred have them at 4/9 for the victory at an implied 69.2% probability.

The Eels are 19/10, and the draw in 80 minutes – which has come up once already when the Bulldogs and Dragons went the distance in Vegas – is an 18/1 pick.

Melbourne give up a 6.5-point start on the two-way handicap market, and they can be backed at 10/11 to overcome the disadvantage. The visitors are 5/6 to make the most of the edge.

Team News

The departure of Ryan Papenhuyzen for a potentially-permanent sabbatical makes space for Sua Fa’alogo at full-back.

The Storm are missing Jack Howarth and Xavier Coates to groin and Achilles injuries respectively, while Shawn Blore’s ankle trouble keeps him out too.

Cooper Clarke and Preston Conn are included on the bench, so have a four in six chance of being involved given the new rules regarding extended interchanges.

Rugby League Odds

Josh Addo-Carr misses out for the Eels, with his broken thumb set to keep him out until Round 4.

Mitch Moses and Jonah Pezet start in the halves, and Jason Ryles has a full-strength pack to choose from.

Storm by 13+ points @ 13/8

Who can say what will happen in the NRL in 2026? Well, the Storm will qualify for the Finals as they do every year, for starters.

In fact, nine of the last 10 campaigns have ended with them placing in the top three. And for 23 straight seasons they have begun the year with a win in game one.

There shouldn’t be any other result but a home victory here, either. While there is some hope that the Eels can improve, there could hardly be a tougher start.

At AAMI Park on Thursday, we should see the Storm clicking right into gear. Even the loss of Papenhuyzen ought not make enough of a dent in what is a well-oiled machine.

I can well see Melbourne coasting home in this one, so the 13/8 about a three-score win is very generous.

Storm to Win Both Halves @ 9/5

It’s worth taking up the 9/5 bet at an implied 35.7% probability here since a solid start for the Storm should pretty much tee up the contest.

If they get ahead at the break, it’s hard to see the Eels doing too much damage. Ryles might well get a tune out of Parramatta in 2026, but it probably won’t happen overnight.

So Melbourne bossing both halves seems a decent shout, and fairly sizeable odds against seems punter-friendly.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.