Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights Prediction: Knights to cause 11/4 upset at Brookvale

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Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights Odds

Despite their one-point loss last weekend, Manly are the favourites to pick up the victory at Brookie this time around. Betfred have them at 8/13, implying a 61.9% probability of the home win.

The Knights are a 7/5 chance, while the draw can be backed at 16/1.

Anthony Seibold’s Sea Eagles give up a 4.5-point edge on the two-way handicap, and they’re 10/11 to overcome the disadvantage.

The Knights are 5/6 to make the most of the one-try start.

Team News

Seibold has to go without Siosiua Taukeihao this week due to a calf issue, so Kobe Hetherington steps up to make the start in the front row.

Paul Bryan, Joey Walsh and and Nathan Brown are among those available from the interchange bench.

Rugby League Odds

The blow of losing Fletcher Sharpe to a knee injury was the one negative to come from Vegas for the Knights.

Sandon Smith gets the start in Sharpe’s stead, while Tyson Frizell replaces Mat Crocker at lock in a like-for-like swap. Francis Manuleleua comes onto the bench, and would make his NRL debut if called upon.

Knights by 1-12 @ 11/4

Having watched as Manly took a 14-point lead, then contrived to trail by 14 before pulling out a ridiculous rescue act to force extra time against Canberra, it’s hard to make a firm early decision on the Sea Eagles.

The Knights were impressive against the Cowboys in America, but the qualifying statement there is ‘against the Cowboys’. While Newcastle grabbed a first win since Round 16 of 2025, they did it against a team few are expecting to pull up any trees this year.

That said, I’m a big fan of coach Justin Holbrook, and there’s reason to believe he can have a similar effect on the Knights to the one he had on the Titans when he took them to the Finals in 2021.

The big question this week is how they respond to the absence of Sharpe following that injury in Vegas, but I’m not ready to back Manly after their helter-skelter loss to the Raiders.

I like the look of Newcastle here, and while they are 7/5 for the win, they shouldn’t have quite enough to clear the 12-point threshold so the 11/4 for a maximum two-score win offers extra value.