Leeds Rhinos vs Catalans Dragons Prediction: Watkins to strike again?

Leeds Rhinos look to extend their winning run to six games when they face out-of-sorts Catalans Dragons in their final home match of the season at AMT Headingley on Thursday. (20:00, Sky Sports+). 

The Rhinos still have a slim chance of catching second place Wigan who they face on the final day, while the Dragons in ninth have nothing to play for. Below you can find my Leeds Rhinos vs Catalans Dragons predictions.

Team news

The key absentee from the Leeds squad this week is star half-back Jake Connor. The England hopeful suffered a rib injury in the win over Huddersfield last week and is not risked.

So Brodie Croft will have a new partner in the halves this week, and that is likely to be either Jack Sinfield or hooker Jarrod O'Connor.

Co-captain Cameron Smith is unlikely to play again this season while fellow co-captain Ash Handley is still sidelined by a groin injury.

There is better news in the forward pack where Leeds have been light on props. Tom Holroyd and Keenan Palasia both make timely returns, while Max Simpson is available again following concussion protocols so it will be him or Ned McCormack in Handley's left centre spot.

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Rising star Presley Cassell is given a rest in the pack with Holroyd and Palasia's returns, while Zak Lloyd also drops out.

Joe Shorrocks serves the final match of his suspension.

Catalans also have players banned, with prop Franck Maria out after his sending off for a high shot on Salford's Emmanuel Waine, while hooker Alrix Da Costa and Tevita Pangai Jr are also suspended for one game.

The Dragons' other hooker option Denive Balmforth has been recalled from his loan by Hull FC.

Two experienced stars are back to bolster Joel Tomkins' side however, with winger Tommy Makinson and Luke Keary both back available.

Leeds Rhinos vs Catalans Dragons Odds

The visitors are 16/1 to stun the Rhinos, while the hosts are the heavy 1/33 favourites. The draw is on offer at 28/1.

Handicap 3-way Catalans Dragons +32 @ 5/6

Leeds will miss Connor in the halves and the question here is over how much they can create without their playmaker. Brodie Croft stepped up last week after Connor left the field injured and will have a big role to play again.

The 32-point handicap looks hefty and my initial instinct was to back the Dragons to beat that. If Makinson and Keary are fit to play then they are a slightly different proposition, but the Catalans injury list remains so lengthy that they have no chance of winning this game.

This will be another Rhinos win to take the tussle in the top four down to the final day, but how big will the margin of victory be?

The Leeds pack will be significantly strengthened this week and that can offset some of the damage down by Connor's creative absence. If Leeds start well and get the scoreboard rolling early then there is every chance they can rack up a big score here.

But 32 points just feels a little big to me without Connor, and I am perhaps boldly going to side with the Dragons to get marginally closer than that.

That may seem a bonkers call given Catalans only beat crisis club Salford by a point last week, and maybe it is. But Leeds will almost certainly have one eye on the trip to champions Wigan next week which could keep the scoreboard closer than it may otherwise have been.

Kallum Watkins anytime tryscorer @ 6/4

There will be plenty of points for Leeds in this one, make no mistake about that. So where is the value?

All the Rhinos outside backs are odds-on to cross for a try in 80 minutes, so I will look again to the Leeds pack where there are two standout options.

Kallum Watkins has already come up trumps for us in recent weeks at decent odds, as the veteran continues to roll back the years on his return to Headingley.

While prop Sam Lisone has turned into a try machine in his last season before leaving Leeds. Lisone is available at 2/1, but it is Watkins at 6/4 who again gets my backing this week.

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