Knights vs Broncos Prediction: Back Brisbane to go big on Sunday

Brisbane Broncos can officially book their spot in the NRL Premiership finals on Sunday when they travel to McDonald Jones Stadium to face the struggling Newcastle Knights (14:00 local, 05:00 BST).

Indeed, a victory would take Michael Maguire’s side up to fifth and in line to battle for a qualifying final slot which would give them the benefit of two shots at the semi-finals. Read on for my Knights vs Broncos predictions, which come with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

Knights vs Broncos Odds

Nobody who has given so much as a passing glance to the league table and form guide will feel the slightest surprise at seeing the Broncos installed as 3/10 favourites to win on Sunday.

The Knights are a long 13/5 chance on home turf, with the draw available at 22/1.

Handicap-wise, the Knights are getting some handy help. The oddsmakers at Betfred have posted an 11.5-point start in Newcastle’s favour on the two-way handicap, with Adam O’Brien’s troops a 5/6 shot with the two-score edge against the Broncos’ 10/11.

Team News

O’Brien is boosted by the return of Phoenix Crossland in the number-nine jersey following concussion protocols, so Matt Arthur is out of the squad and Jayden Brailey starts on the bench.

Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana is set to be among the interchange options as well having recently been recalled from the NSW Cup team. Brodie Jones makes way for the Samoa-born 21-year-old.

Maguire makes a sole change to his 17, with Jaiyden Hunt stepping up to replace Jack Gosiewski, who has had surgery on a broken collarbone so misses the rest of the season. Jesse Arthars comes in as a substitute.

There is still no sign of hamstring injury victims Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo.

Rugby League Odds

Broncos by 13+ @ 21/20

Little explanation needed here, I feel.

The Knights come into this one on a run of six straight losses, and the end of the season cannot come soon enough for them. With the future of Kalyn Ponga seemingly still very much up in the air, it feels like there are bigger dates ahead off the field than on it.

Four of their last five defeats have been unhealthy ones. Deficits of 18, five, 26, 36 and 34 say a lot about just how off the mark the Knights have been. And the Broncos are a side who can post points given half a chance, even without Reynolds, Mam and Cobbo.

A half of the Broncos’ victories this season have come with more than two scores in hand, and this looks a lot like a game they should have in the bag long before the final siren. At 21/20, there’s an implied 48.8% probability but I make it far higher than that.

Broncos over 30.5 points @ 6/5

The Broncos have already breached 31 points against five of the bottom 10 teams this season, and Sunday presents a perfect opportunity to make that six.

Weakened though they were last week, they still chalked up 38 against the play-off-contending Dolphins. And against a far less competitive Knights outfit they should be able to match that feat at the very least.

I’m on the Broncs to have a fun afternoon in the Hunter Region, with their outside backs likely to make hay.

The 6/5 on offer for a 31+ score is expecting a lot of the Knights.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.