Hull KR vs Warrington Wolves Predictions: Ashton and Lewis to star with Grand Final on the line

Hull KR's Grand Final credentials will be given the ultimate test as Sam Burgess and Warrington Wolves arrive at a packed out Sewell Group Craven Park in Friday night's hotly-anticipated first play-off semi-final (kick-off 20:00, live on Sky Sports+ HD).

Just one place and two points separated the sides in the Betfred Super League table, and while the Robins have had a week off it is the Wolves who come to town high on the confidence of a thrilling golden-point play-off win over St Helens. Here are my Hull KR vs Warrington Wolves predictions.

Hull KR vs Warrington Wolves Odds

Rovers are the narrow favourites, largely thanks to their home advantage at what will be a packed-out Craven Park. The hosts are 8/11 to reach a first Grand Final in 80 minutes, with the Wire 6/5 t0 overcome the hostile atmosphere and get the job done.

After Warrington's extra-time drama against St Helens last week, another draw in regulation time is 16/1.

Team News

The headline team news is the absence of Hull KR's influential captain Elliot Minchella. The Rovers forward failed in his attempt to overturn a ban for a Grade C head contact and having been handed a two-match ban he will now only play again this season if his side reach Old Trafford.

In Minchella's absence, head coach Willie Peters moved Dean Hadley from prop to loose forward in the victory over Leeds Rhinos which wrapped up the regular season.

Aside from Minchella it is a full-strength Rovers squad, with Niall Evalds and Kelepi Tanginoa both returning in place of youngsters Leo Tennison and Harvey Horne. Oliver Gildart is included after missing the Rhinos game with a rib injury.

Rugby League Odds

Warrington go with the same squad which edged out Saints in a pulsating eliminator last Saturday evening at the Halliwell Jones Stadium, when England captain George Williams stepped up with a drop goal to clinch it in golden-point extra-time.

An unchanged 21 means still no place for club captain Stefan Ratchford following his horror injury in the summer, and no place either for Jordy Crowther, Arron Lindop or Tom Whitehead.

Burgess is expected to run with the same starting side too, with Josh Thewlis and Matty Ashton cementing their places as first-choice wingers outside of centres Rodrick Tai and Toby King. Forwards Paul Vaughan, James Harrison and Joe Philbin all started on the bench against St Helens as Burgess opted for Zane Musgrove and Luke Yates upfront, with John Bateman and Matty Nicholson in the back row.

It is with that Wire pack where Burgess will hope he can cause Rovers problems in the absence of their talisman Minchella.

Handicap 3-way Alternative 2: Hull KR -8 @ 7/4

I'm really excited about this game as a neutral. You can argue all day about the quality and standard of Super League throughout the domestic season, but when you reach play-off time you are almost guaranteed drama. These players will almost be able to taste the rainy Saturday night air of Old Trafford next weekend, and this is the big game to prove who has the championship class.

For many it will be Hull KR, brilliant all year, and so close to finishing top of the table over the season. A home tie and a week off will have done them good but I just value momentum so highly when it comes to the play-offs. As a Leeds lad I have spent years watching the Rhinos fumble their way through the season and find form when it matters and go on to win the whole thing. Now, I am not saying that is what Warrington could do here, but I absolutely give them a real chance of reaching the Grand Final.

This will be the fourth meeting between the two sides this year and Warrington have won two of the three so far. But, crucially, they were outplayed in the most recent clash at home in August when the Robins romped to a 22-4 victory.

Rovers are favourites again here and the handicap looks spot on.

So what do the Wolves need to do to spring an upset here?

For me there are two key areas where they have to dominate. Firstly, the Warrington pack simply has to win the arm wrestle and lay a territorial platform for George Williams to dominate. The England skipper came up with a couple of moments of magic against Saints last week which ultimately won his team the game. If this happens again then the visitors have a real chance. But the second thing that Wire have to do is to find a way to keep Mikey Lewis in a straitjacket. And not many opponents have managed to shackle the leading Man of Steel contender all year.

Lewis is the third-top try scorer in Super League, with Warrington's Matty Ashton the closest challenger to leader Liam Marshall. But as vital as his tries have been both his kicking game and creative play in the final third. For me this is the fixture which could make Mikey Lewis a genuine superstar. He has broken into the England team and is set to win Man of Steel (he has my vote). But for this to be a true breakthrough year then Lewis has to guide his side to a Grand Final that their performances since February have deserved. I'm expecting him to be the difference again here.

And I am backing Coach of the Year nominee Willie Peters to be walking out at Old Trafford rather than the man who has been strangely omitted from that list, Sam Burgess.

Matty Ashton anytime tryscorer  @ 5/4

Not the boldest or sexiest tip this one, but Matty Ashton is a try machine and anything above evens normally stops me looking elsewhere.

The England winger scored two of the Wolves' four tries last week, with King crossing for the other two, and it is in these tight, intense play-off games that a top-level finisher can really make the difference.

Betfred's Super League Double Delight offer is a decent shout for Ashton too this weekend. He is 7/1 to score the game's first try, and that would become a massive 14/1 if he then crosses for another try - as he did last week.

Ashton has scored a try in each of Warrington's last four meetings with Hull KR and anyone who watched his performance last week will have seen that he doesn't appear to be in the mood to let the season end here.

And if you like your milestones, this game will also be his 100th Warrington appearance - he's hardly going to let that pass without a try is he?

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.