Cowboys vs Broncos Prediction: Reynolds return to be key for finals-bound Broncos

The Brisbane Broncos’ hopes of securing a top-four finish and a place in the qualifying finals of the NRL Premiership play-offs will be boosted if they can beat the North Queensland Cowboys at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Saturday (19:35 local, 10:35 BST).

While this is far from the biggest derby match these two have played, there’s plenty riding on it for Michael Maguire’s side. My Cowboys vs Broncos predictions are below, complete with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds

Cowboys vs Broncos Odds

Given their respective positions in the league ladder, the obvious favourites are the Broncos. Betfred are offering 1/2 against the visitors getting the job done inside 80 minutes, with the Cowboys 13/8 for the win.

While the draw in regular time is 20/1, the regular two-way handicap market sees Maguire’s troops giving up a 4.5-point start in return for a lengthening of their odds to 10/11. With the edge, the Cowboys are 5/6.

Team News

We’ll start with the away side since the biggest piece of team news relates to the potential return of Adam Reynolds. The Broncos captain has missed the last two fixtures with a hamstring injury sustained in the pursuit of Xavier Coates against the Melbourne Storm in round 23.

But he could be back for this one, having been handed the number 22 jumper in the initial squad release.

There’s still no Ezra Mam or Selwyn Cobbo, both of whom also picked up hamstring injuries in that same game against the Storm, but Brendan Piakura is back after concussion and should be among the substitutes.

Todd Payten looks set to go with the same starting 13 for the third week running having seen his side come from behind to beat the Wests Tigers in round 25.

That means youngsters Nicholas Lenaz and Emarly Bitungane being left to bide their time having both broken into the first team in recent weeks.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-way Alt 1: Broncos -8 @ 11/8

At this time of year it often just comes down to which team needs it more. And while the Cowboys will never roll over for the Broncos given their long-held rivalry, it is Brisbane who have to be considered the ones to back here given their play-off ambitions.

They are hitting form at the right time, as much as anything. A run of eight wins in the last 10 speaks to a side prepping themselves for a tilt at something big, especially when considering those eight have come at any average victory margin of 19 points.

Even if Reynolds doesn’t make it into the 17, the fact he is so close to returning is a boost in itself for a club who look primed for a deep run when the big business begins in two weeks.

Given the look of Brisbane right now, I just can’t back against them up against a Cowboys side who have been out of contention for months now. Two wins in two doesn’t paper over the cracks formed during the preceding run of two in 10.

The 11/8 quoted by Betfred for the Broncos to win by nine or more implies a 42.1% probability, and that seems like an understatement even considering the derby element.

Broncos over 30.5 points @ 6/4

Over the last four matches the Broncos have scored 146 points, and that is despite bagging only two of those in the injury-hit defeat to the Storm.

The three wins against the Rabbitohs, Dolphins and Knights have come with an average of 48 points scored, while the Cowboys have conceded 32 or more in seven of their last 13 matches.

This is North Queensland’s final game of the season thanks to a round-27 bye, and they will want to go down with a bit of a scrap. But that defensive record can’t be fixed overnight in my mind.

So I’m happy to back the over on Broncos points given the relative form exhibited by these two, and this is a bet that also came in for followers of this column last week.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.