Broncos vs Storm Prediction: Take 18/5 bet on Broncos to blow through Storm

The Brisbane Broncos have the carrot of a qualifying finals spot dangling in front of them on Thursday when they host the second-placed Melbourne Storm at Suncorp Stadium (19:50 local, 10:50 BST, live on Sky Sports +).

The Broncos are one of three teams on 34 points heading into the final round, but a win by any score would almost certainly mean they avoid an elimination game when the finals start next week. Read on for my Broncos vs Storm predictions, complete with full team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Broncos vs Storm Odds

Despite the Storm having nothing to play for just a week out from a finals fixture, they are priced up as favourites to win in 80 minutes by Betfred.

Melbourne are 4/6 for the victory, with the Broncos a 13/10 chance (implying a 43.5% probability).

It’s 18/1 about the draw, while the Storm give up 2.5 points on the two-way handicap. Against that setting, they are 10/11 with the Broncos 5/6 to make the most of the slight advantage.

Team News

In his initial squad of 22, Michael Maguire has dropped Gehamat Shibasaki to the reserve list after it emerged that the ace outside-back had been out drinking in Brisbane on Sunday night and arrived at training the following morning worse for wear.

Deine Mariner switches to centre in his place, with Jesse Arthars coming back in on the wing.

There a change planned in the forwards, with Brendan Piakura selected to start in the back row in a straight swap for Jaiyden Hunt, who is named on the bench.

For the Storm, half-back Jahrome Hughes is back after a shoulder injury which kept him out of the last five matches. Meanwhile, Nick Meaney, Xavier Coates, Eliesa Katoa and Josh King all return having been given the week off in last week’s 40-10 shellacking by Sydney Roosters.

Tui Kamikamica is back after undergoing concussion protocols, and Jack Howarth could get the call from the reserve list now that he is over a groin problem.

Shawn Blore, who was a tryscorer last week, suffered a fractured larynx so misses out. So too does Stefano Utoikamanu, who is rested before the finals.

Rugby League Odds

Broncos to win @ 13/10

I wouldn’t normally be going with the Broncos for this one, I don’t think. The Storm are clearly the better of these two sides, have a real shot at winning the Grand Final this year, and until last week were on a run of 11 wins in 12.

But qualifying early for the finals and knowing your fate with time to spare is both a privilege and a burden. You don’t have to worry too much about the last couple of games of the regular season, but at the same time you actually have to go through the charade of playing them.

And that’s exactly how it looked last week when Melbourne threw away a 10-0 half-time lead and basically stopped playing late on as the Roosters ran off with 40 unanswered points. They knew it was more trouble than it was worth to really go hard at it.

Whatever the intention on Thursday, I think we’ll see more of the same. Sure, the Storm will give it a decent stab. But ultimately, it is the Broncs who have something to go for and it will show.

Finishing fourth rather than fifth or sixth is a big deal in that it gives you a free shot in week one, and Brisbane will be treating this one as their first play-off game. Win this one against a team with half their mind on it, and you can afford a loss in seven days’ time.

If the Broncos get a lead, how much will Melbourne put into it to chase them down?

Broncos to win both halves @ 18/5

There’s going to be quite the atmosphere at Suncorp on Thursday night. The Broncos faithful know how much breathing room a win could give their side, so they’ll be desperate to avoid a string of win-or-bust games.

And if that home support can drive the home side into an early lead, then they should find the Storm’s resistance weaken early. Craig Bellamy doesn’t take too well to losing games of rugby league, but he and his players already know the route laid out ahead of them, and that has to be a factor.

So as long as the Broncos have a half-time lead, I can see them going on to add more onto the advantage after the break. The 18/5 price makes for a 21.7% implied probability, but with the finals reckoning taken into account this might only need Brisbane to gain any sort of lead for the likelihood to increase manifold.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.