Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Prediction: Bounce-back Broncos to do it again at 7/1

The headline fixture of the opening round in the NRL Premiership sees champions Brisbane Broncos take on the club they deposed, the Penrith Panthers, at Suncorp Stadium on Friday (19:00 local, 09:00 GMT, Sky Sports Action).

The Broncos will be looking to bounce back after leaving themselves too much to do in the World Club Challenge defeat to Hull KR a fortnight ago. Here are my Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers predictions, as well as the latest team news and match odds from Betfred.

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Odds

The champions have the edge according to the bookies, with Betfred pricing them up at 8/11 for the win at an implied 57.9% probability.

The visitors, who won every Grand Final between 2021 and 2024, can be picked up at 5/4, with the draw in 80 minutes being a 14/1 chance.

There’s just a 2.5-point start offered to the Panthers on the two-way handicap. In the revised head-to-head, the Broncos are 10/11 and Penrith 5/6.

Team News

Michael Maguire is set to go with much the same side that was beaten 30-24 by Hull KR in the global face-off.

That means Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds start in the halves, while Corey Jensen is in the front row after lasting less than a minute at the MKM Stadium due to a head knock.

Grant Anderson and Jesse Arthars are added to the bench under the NRL’s new six-player interchange rule.

Rugby League Odds

Blaize Talagi starts 2026 as the first choice five-eighth for the Panthers having forced his way ahead of Jack Cole in the pecking order following the then-defending champs’ slow start 12 months ago.

There’s no Liam Martin in the pack as a result of a calf issue, so Luke Garner’s inclusion at his expense is the only expected change from the loss to the Broncos in last year’s Preliminary Final.

The inspirational Nathan Cleary is free to play after winning his appeal against a charge of dangerous contact.

Broncos by 1-12 @ 2/1

Maybe it’s naïve to go against the Panthers. I basically refused to believe they’d be eliminated until it actually happened in last year’s finals.

But what they found in the Broncos was an opponent that just doesn’t lie down, and they already have form for that in 2026 having very nearly pulled off a fourth-straight incredible comeback in the World Club Challenge loss to Hull KR.

They might have been 26 points down to the Robins, but having overcome deficits of 16, 14 and 10 in the Finals last year to come out victorious, it was no real surprise for them to get within a converted try by full time in the Clash of the Champions.

Whether they are building another fightback or not here, this ought to be another close one. And I see the Broncos having just too much, especially given the threat of Reece Walsh out the back in broken play.

The 2/1 price about another tight Brisbane win looks tasty.

Double Result: Panthers-Broncos @ 7/1

I’m backing this because I’d kick myself if I didn’t and it came off.

Just look at the Broncos’ form since the beginning of the 2025 Finals. They were 18-12 down to the Raiders at the break, fell 28-12 behind in the second stanza, and still won.

From 14-0 adrift at the break against the Panthers, they came out on top 16-14.

Then in the GF, they overturned a 22-12 disadvantage at the midpoint to triumph 26-22.

Of course, just two weeks back they were 18-4 back against Rovers and dropped another 12 points before racing to 20 without reply. And arguably, with even three or four more minutes’ grace they’d have won that one too.

So the 7/1 being offered here is just far too big given that context, so I’m taking it on account of the value.

They won’t win every game from behind for the rest of time, but who can back against them doing it one more time in the season opener?

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.