North East Somerset & Hanham Election Odds: Jacob Rees-Mogg in trouble

As we continue our look at some of the key constituencies for the 2024 General Election, our eyes have wandered westwards towards a potential big name who looks in trouble according to the betting market.

Is Jacob Rees-Mogg about to be sent packing from the House of Commons? Let’s see what the latest Somerset North East & Hanham Odds suggest…

Several big-name Conservative MPs are facing an uphill battle to hold onto their seat for the next parliament and arguably the most well-known of them is the former Brexit Minister and Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg.

The 55-year-old has pretty staunch views, ranging from his total belief in Brexit, to being against both abortion and same-sex marriage. His particular stances on many issues has led to him sitting very much on the right-flank of the Conservative Party ever since first being elected to the Green Benches in 2010 at the third time of asking. He had contested seats in 1997 and 2001 without success before winning the newly-created North East Somerset constituency.

On that day, he defeated Dan Norris, who was the sitting Labour MP for Wansdyke, which was the name of North East Somerset’s predecessor. Sometimes life comes full circle because as the current constituency is sunset, the same man who lost to Rees-Mogg 14 years ago is back on the ballot and looking for a return to Westminster himself.

Norris returned to the public eye in 2020 when it was announced that he would be the Labour candidate for the Mayor of the West of England. He would win that contest in 2021, defeating the Conservative Party candidate by just over 40,000 votes in the second round and just last month, confirmed that he’d be throwing his hat into the ring and returning to the campaign trail, this time to take on Rees-Mogg again in what would be one of the most intriguing rematches at the ballot box.

The latest MRP Polling has North East Somerset & Hanham as ‘Lean Labour’ with 39.7% of the vote, with the Tories just over 5% behind at 34.2%. Reform UK and the Lib Dems are both predicted to poll at around 10% of the votes, with the Green Party potentially keeping their deposit at 5.4%.

This is exactly the type of seat that should Labour win; it would mean that the predicted landslide would certainly be on the cards. Rees-Mogg holds a majority of just under 15,000 (albeit on slightly different boundaries) but anytime an incumbent is losing that type of winning margin, it would mean it would be a terrible day for the party.

The current North East Somerset & Hanham odds on Betfred suggest that Labour are very much on course to take this seat. We are currently trading at 1/3 (75% chance) for Dan Norris to win back his seat in Westminster, with Rees-Mogg only a 33% chance to win at 2/1. These numbers feel about right to me, as the Reform UK vote is certainly going to impact these types of constituencies.

Without Nigel Farage’s party on the ballot, this would be a true toss-up but if the right-wing party are able to take 3,000-4,000 votes, that would have previously gone to the Tories, then it gives Labour every chance to send Rees-Mogg packing from parliament and be a potential Portillo moment.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to General Election day itself from our team here at Betfred Insights. Keep checking out our coverage from the Next Prime Minister markets through to key individual constituencies over the coming weeks as we follow the twists and turns from a betting perspective for the 2024 General Election in our Politics Betting Tips section.