Next General Election Odds: Momentum is with Reform UK & Lib Dems

We are now less than a fortnight before the polls open and the country decides on the make-up of the next parliament. All signs are pointing towards a massive Labour victory but the momentum is with Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

Neil Monnery takes a look at some of the more interesting market moves and the latest General Election Odds...

*You can check out all of our latest General Election Odds over at betfred.com

It has been another troubling week for the embattled Prime Minister as polls continue to suggest that the Conservative Party won’t just be heading out of power for the first time since 2010, but there is a real possibility that they’ll dip below 100 MPs and might not even get the second-most votes in the upcoming General Election.

Reform UK are clearly the party on the move vote percentage wise, with polls now regularly putting them ahead of the Tories, including one that put their support at a high of 24%. That does feel like a bit of a rogue but anywhere between 18 and 20% feels very much on the money and if that holds up on July 4, then it will mean a disastrous night for the incumbent party of power.

Seven or More Reform UK seats is now the favourite in that market at 11/8 and those odds are only moving in one direction. We are also 13/8 that they clear 20% in terms of vote share and that is a big favourite in the betting.

There is no doubt that the Nigel Farage effect is real but the big question will be how those votes are distributed across the country and whether they’ll translate into being a party with considerable sway in the House of Commons.

Betting on who will actually win the election is not exactly a market flush with enticing options, as Labour are clearly on course for a significant majority. Whether the Tories will finish second seems to be a far more competitive market and we are just 7/2 that the Lib Dems finish with more MPs than the Conservatives. That was 9/1 at the start of the campaign and shows just how poorly the Tories are doing and they are clearly struggling against Sir Ed Davey’s party in those affluent areas across the south.

A great example of this comes from Chesham & Amersham, where the Lib Dems took the seat in a by-election back in 2021 but were highly expected to lose it come the General Election. The Tories opened as a significant favourite here and even last week, it was a toss-up according to the betting market but now the seat is just 1/5 to remain in the hands of Sarah Green and you can get 3/1 on the Conservative Party candidate.

Betfred have priced up a few more interesting constituencies in recent days with the PM himself seemingly in a battle to keep hold of his own seat. Rishi Sunak is 4/11 to remain as a Member of Parliament. Labour are just 2/1 though to take Richmond & Northallerton, which would be the ultimate Michael Portillo moment.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is widely expected to lose his seat as the Lib Dems are surging in Godalming & Ash down in Surrey. The odds here are exactly the same as in Chesham & Amersham.

Penny Mordaunt was touted as the next leader of the party but she’s in trouble down in Portsmouth North with Labour the 4/9 favourites to take the seat and complete quite the turnaround in my home town, which had been solidly Lib Dem in the South and Conservative in the North until the coalition. Now it looks like both seats (along with the two newly-formed Isle of Wight constituencies) will be represented by the Red Rose Party.

One Labour candidate though who looked like facing an uphill battle was Praful Nargund, who is standing to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the MP for Islington North. The former leader of the party had been a short-price to win as an independent but the odds are now nip and tuck. 8/11 for Corbyn and 1/1 for Labour. I still think the veteran left-winger keeps hold of his seat and suspect this market move is more about the national picture than local issues.

At some point, the Tories will surely bottom out in the odds and they’ll be some betting value but all the momentum is with Reform UK and the Lib Dems at the moment, with Labour comfortably sitting on a big lead and not doing anything too controversial as to rock the boat. I fully expect money to keep flooding in with support for both Nigel Farage and Sir Ed Davey's candidates across the country.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to General Election day itself from our team here at Betfred Insights. Keep checking out our coverage from the Next Prime Minister markets through to key individual constituencies over the coming weeks as we follow the twists and turns from a betting perspective for the 2024 General Election in our Politics Betting Tips section.