Betfred’s Owen McMahon picks out his best bet from all seven meetings in the UK & Ireland on Thursday 27 July 2023.
I wrote about trackers being a useful tool for punters last Friday – coincidentally when tipping up a once-raced juvenile for Godolphin/Charlie Appleby.
Thursday’s NAP follows a near-identical process, for I’m advising STORMY WAVES for the same connections in a novice event over 7f at Doncaster.
Here’s exactly what I noted after the 525,000gns purchase’s promising debut over course and distance on the final day of June: “Expensive. Well-backed. Strong at the finish after running green. Consider next time when stable in better form.”
I’ve since watched the race back and the son of Dubawi looked very raw, hanging about the track – and he did see his race out well under considerate handling. An eye-catcher, it’s fair to say.
Dare I say he also looked to be a little outpaced at one point, so providing he acts on it of course, this softer ground should be a positive as it’ll bring his evident stamina into play.
That Donny form looks decent too. The winner – Bigbertiebasset for Tom Dascombe – finished runner-up in a warm maiden at Newbury prior and has an entry for the G2 Betfred Champagne Stakes in the middle of September.
I fully expect Stormy Waves to reverse form with Novello Lad, who was half-a-length in front of the selection the last day. I’m confident about that.
What about his other 10 rivals? Of those with form in the book, I suppose it’s User Amistoso who poses the biggest danger. However, the Michael Bell team are not in good form so he’s hard to advise.
There’s a few newbies I’m wary of – none more so than the selection’s stablemate Musical Act. Typically well-bred, he appears to be the stable’s first-string on jockey bookings with James Doyle jumping ship.
A lot of the time, that would be enough to put me off, but connections have plenty of second-string winners and as it goes I think Jamie Spencer is well-suited to my pick.
Maybe there’s a reason for the change that we’ll become aware of, but I’m trusting my judgement and backing Spencer to navigate Stormy Waves to victory here.