Valspar Championship 2025 Tips: 150/1 one of six for Copperhead

After a Monday finish at TPC Sawgrass, where Rory McIlroy defeated J.J. Spaun in a playoff to win his second PLAYERS Championship, the PGA Tour completes its Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Valspar Championship 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview featuring six players priced from 45/1 all the way out to 150/1!

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Valspar Championship debuted on the PGA Tour in 2000 and returns for its 24^th edition this week. It has almost exclusively been played in this March slot since 2007 and is always staged here, at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

There are just four players to have recorded multiple victories in the event, with KJ Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Paul Casey (2018, 2019) and Sam Burns (2021, 2022) all locked together on two wins apiece.

That list of two-time winners is representative of the international flavour of the tournament, as 12 of the first 19 winners came from outside the U.S. However, the home players have dominated the more recent history, winning each of the previous four renewals.

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Peter Malnati (-12)

Runner-up: Cameron Young (-10)

• 2023 – Winner: Taylor Moore (-10)

Runner-up: Adam Schenk (-9)

• 2022 – Winner: Sam Burns (-17, playoff)

Runner-up: Davis Riley (-17)

• 2021 – Winner: Sam Burns (-17)
  Runner-up: Keegan Bradley (-14)
• 2019 – Winner: Paul Casey (-8)

Runners-up: Jason Kokrak, Louis Oosthuizen (-7)

Peter Malnati was the surprise champion of the Valspar Championship last year, winning his second PGA Tour title more than eight years after his first. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course was designed by Larry Packard and opened for play in 1971. It was previously seen as the host of the JCPenney Classic – a mixed team event co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and LPGA – from 1990-1999, before taking up hosting duties for this event in 2000.

The Copperhead Course is a par 71 measuring a lengthy 7352yds and possesses 5x par 3s (195-235yds), 9x par 4s (380-475yds) and 4x par 5s (560-605yds). It is home to one of the toughest challenges on the PGA Tour, averaging a winning score of -11.2 across its last 10 renewals.

This venue is relatively hilly compared to many courses in the region and showcases a demanding test of ball striking. One where players must smartly navigate tight, doglegging corridors that are framed by tall and imposing pine trees throughout, and on which water is a regular threat, in-play on nine holes.

Its winding fairways are narrow, with the landing areas pinched by penal and strategically placed bunkers. Combined with long, thick rough, there is a premium on finding the short grass and players must drive it intelligently to avoid having their approaches blocked out by the trees.

The putting surfaces are small-average in size and as with several recent events, they use a poa trivialis overseed on a bermudagrass base at this time of year. The majority of these fast, undulating greens are elevated and narrow/shallow in shape, which contributes to them having the third-lowest greens-in-regulation percentages on tour over the last six years. Whilst with many a downhill putt, they require precise approach play to limit the risk of three-putting.

They’re heavily bunkered and due to that now penal rough being cut closer to them since 2023, scrambling around them has become significantly more difficult.

This is not an easy course on which to create birdie chances. The five par 3s are fairly lengthy, with four at 200yds+ and although the par 5s don’t look too intimidating on paper, they have some of the narrowest fairways on the layout. Most of the par 4s are short-mid length and could be got at with top-quality ball striking, but it’s on these holes that the water is most prominent.

The Copperhead Course is famed for its finish, with the difficult final three holes nicknamed the “Snake Pit”. This comprises of the 475yd par 4 16^th, a left-to-right dogleg on which water hugs the narrow fairway on the right-hand side; the well bunkered 215yd par 3 17^th; and the 445yd par 4 18^th, where contenders will be desperate to find one of the narrowest and most heavily protected fairways on the course to have any chance of successfully closing out the event come Sunday.

THE WEATHER

There were thunderstorms in the area at the end of last week, but they haven’t stuck around for the week of the Valspar, with conditions looking warm, dry and bright throughout.

That being said, the field won’t have it all their own way. The event is forecast to begin with strong winds on Thursday, with gusts of 32mph+ on the cards and though not quite as severe from Friday onwards, there is predicted to be a persistently strong breeze for the entire event.

KEY STATS

• SG: Ball Striking

As a setup that is lengthy yet tight, with challenging greens that are tough to find and require a high level of precision to conquer, the Copperhead Course is a place where elite ball striking is a necessity.

That is not something that we necessarily associate with last year’s winner, Peter Malnati, but he did produce one of his best ball-striking performances for a couple of years here in 2024, ranking 6^th. Runner-up, Cameron Young ranked 4^th and 5^th-place finisher, Ryan Moore was the leading ball striker in the field.

Taylor Moore ranked 1^st in ball striking when taking the title in 2023; the 1^st and 2^nd-ranked ball strikers in 2022, Justin Thomas and Matthew NeSmith finished tied-3^rd; and Paul Casey ranked 1^st for ball striking in 2019.

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity 175yds+

Looking specifically at iron play and there has rarely been a winner who didn’t produce quality in this area. Furthermore, this is a course where the long irons are vital, with over 50% of approaches falling into that 175yds+ range each year.

2024 was all about hitting greens, as winner Peter Malnati and runner-up Cameron Young ranked 4^th and 8^th in greens-in-regulation respectively. Meanwhile, Ryan Moore in 5^th ranked 2^nd both in approach and GIR.

Taylor Moore ranked 2^nd in GIR and 5^th in approach when winning in 2023; Sam Burns ranked 3^rd in approach when coming out on top in 2022, as 3^rd-place finisher, Matthew NeSmith ranked 1^st in each area; runner-up in 2021, Keegan Bradley ranked 3^rd in approach and GIR; Paul Casey ranked top 10 in each area in 2019; whilst 2017 winner Adam Hadwin and 2016 champion Charl Schwartzel ranked 2^nd and 3^rd in approach respectively.

• SG: Off-the-Tee

The driver is almost equally as important, as we saw last year, with winner Peter Malnati ranking 4^th off-the-tee and runner-up Cameron Young ranking 1^st.

Taylor Moore ranked 2^nd OTT when he won in 2023; Davis Riley was the best driver in the field when losing out in a playoff to Sam Burns in 2022; and Paul Casey led home a driver-heavy leaderboard in 2019, as he ranked 6^th himself and each of the top five ranked no worse than 13^th.

• SG: Putting (poa trivialis overseed)

We’re back on the poa trivialis overseeded greens that we see so regularly on tour now, at events such as THE PLAYERS Championship, Phoenix Open, Houston Open, Texas Open, RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship.

Mastering these putting surfaces is often key to contending in this event. Each of the last four winners have ranked inside the top 10 on the greens, this includes last year’s winner, Peter Malnati and 2021 champion, Sam Burns both ranking 3^rd.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSE)

Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club)

The ball-striking test at the tight, strategic and tree-lined Colonial Country Club mirrors that of the Copperhead Course, which has enabled these two events to develop strikingly strong form ties.

Notable correlating form:

Jordan Spieth:

Valspar (1^st) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Sam Burns:

Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Adam Hadwin:

Valspar (1^st) / Charles Schwab (5^th, 8^th)

Davis Riley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Kevin Na:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Jason Kokrak:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Boo Weekley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Adam Schenk:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)

Keegan Bradley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (2^nd)

Webb Simpson:

Valspar (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (3^rd, 5^th)

Scott Stallings:

Valspar (3^rd) / Charles Schwab (4^th, 4^th)

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)

Bay Hill is another Florida course that possesses a similarly demanding ball-striking challenge to this week’s course. Its GIR percentages are the lowest on tour – two ahead of the Copperhead Course in the rankings – and it requires a high proportion of approaches from 175yds+.

Notable correlating form:

Keegan Bradley:

Valspar (2^nd) / API (2^nd, 3^rd)

Kevin Na:

Valspar (2^nd) / API (2^nd)

Jason Kokrak:

Valspar (2^nd) / API (4^th, 6^th)

Viktor Hovland:

Valspar (3^rd) / API (2^nd)

Ryan Moore:

Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / API (4^th, 5^th)

Sungjae Im:

Valspar (4^th) / API (3^rd, 3^rd)

Wyndham Clark:

Valspar (5^th) / API (2^nd)

Matt Fitzpatrick:

Valspar (5^th) / API (2^nd)

Troy Merritt:

Valspar (6^th, 8^th) / API (3^rd)

Wells Fargo Championship (Quail Hollow Club)

Quail Hollow is a lengthy, hilly and tree-lined ball striker’s course, possessing quick poa trivialis overseeded greens that are similar in size and difficulty to this week’s. The long game has to be on point there and that includes the long irons, with approaches from 175yds+ commonplace.

Notable correlating form:

Sean O’Hair:

Valspar (1^st) / Wells Fargo (1^st)

Paul Casey:

Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Wells Fargo (4^th, 5^th)

Gary Woodland:

Valspar (1^st) / Wells Fargo (4^th, 5^th)

Kevin Streelman:

Valspar (1^st) / Wells Fargo (6^th, 9^th)

Webb Simpson:

Valspar (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (2^nd, 4^th)

Bill Haas:

Valspar (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (4^th, 4^th)

Viktor Hovland:

Valspar (3^rd) / Wells Fargo (3^rd)

Ryan Moore:

Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / Wells Fargo (5^th, 6^th)

Sungjae Im:

Valspar (4^th) / Wells Fargo (4^th)

Wyndham Clark:

Valspar (5^th) / Wells Fargo (1^st)

Abraham Ancer:

Valspar (5^th) / Wells Fargo (2^nd)

Genesis Invitational (Riviera Country Club)

Riviera Country Club is a traditional, tree-lined par 71 that is very close in length to the Copperhead Course. Both venues are almost identically matched in terms of tee-to-green difficulty and share plenty of notable crossover form as a result.

Notable correlating form:

Paul Casey:

Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Genesis (2^nd)

Sam Burns:

Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Genesis (3^rd)

Charl Schwartzel:

Valspar (1^st) / Genesis (3^rd, 5^th)

Adam Hadwin:

Valspar (1^st) / Genesis (4^th, 6^th)

Bill Haas:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (1^st)

Cameron Young:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)

Keegan Bradley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)

Jason Kokrak:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd)

Kevin Na:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th)

Patrick Cantlay:

Valspar (2^nd) / Genesis (3^rd, 4^th, 4^th)

Ryan Moore:

Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th) / Genesis (4^th)

Scott Stallings:

Valspar (3^rd) / Genesis (4^th)

Viktor Hovland:

Valspar (3^rd) / Genesis (4^th, 5^th)

Sanderson Farms Championship (Country Club of Jackson)

The Country Club of Jackson is a tree-lined course with narrow fairways on which high-class drivers have often gone well. Although generally an easier test than the Copperhead Course, there are abundant form ties between these events.

Notable correlating form:

Peter Malnati:

Valspar (1^st) / Sanderson Farms (1^st, 2^nd)

Sam Burns:

Valspar (1^st, 1^st) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)

Kevin Streelman:

Valspar (1^st) / Sanderson Farms (4^th)

Cameron Young:

Valspar (2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Boo Weekley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Keegan Bradley:

Valspar (2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (4^th, 5^th)

Mackenzie Hughes:

Valspar (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)

Scott Stallings:

Valspar (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Dominic Bozzelli:

Valspar (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)

Sungjae Im:

Valspar (4^th) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Carl Yuan:

Valspar (5^th) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)

Ryan Armour:

Valspar (6^th) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)

THE FIELD

World #3 Xander Schauffele is the top-ranked player in the field as he continues his return from injury and is joined by a further two of the top 10: Tommy Fleetwood (#9) and Justin Thomas (#10). The field has added depth with eight of the world’s top 25 and 18 of the top 50 stated to tee it up this week.

Peter Malnati is the defending champion and is one of seven former winners in attendance, alongside Taylor Moore (2023), Sam Burns (2022, 2021), Adam Hadwin (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015), Luke Donald (2012) and Gary Woodland (2011).

We have an interesting group of debutants involved, including the classy trio of Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris and Nicolai Hojgaard.

The DP World Tour’s Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen gets into the field due to his runner-up finish in the Puerto Rico Open on his latest start, whilst current #1 amateur and soon-to-be PGA Tour member, Luke Clanton will again mix it against some of the world’s best.

Valspar Championship 2025 Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Tommy Fleetwood 14/1, Justin Thomas 14/1, Xander Schauffele 14/1, Sepp Straka 22/1, Sam Burns 22/1

As we’re following on from one of the biggest events of the year, and with a weather forecast that could bring about plenty of volatility, I’m going to focus my attention away from those at the very top of the betting this week.

1.25 pts Jake Knapp each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 45/1

My first selection at the Copperhead Course is the in-form Jake Knapp. He may be making his first start in this event, but as one of the strongest long iron players on tour and continuing to fire on the greens, he looks ideally placed to make a winning debut in the Valspar Championship.

Knapp has only missed one cut across his nine starts this season and enters this week after recording four straight top-25 finishes. This includes a 6^th-place finish at PGA National two weeks ago and a 12^th-place finish in THE PLAYERS Championship.

He shone with the putter on those overseeded poa trivialis greens at TPC Sawgrass, ranking 1^st. Indeed, it’s the putter that has been his biggest weapon throughout this year, ranking 16^th overall and he often putts well on similar surfaces.

That being said, he’s been much improved in approach recently, ranking 13^th in this field across his last 20 rounds and sitting inside the top 25 from both 175-200yds/200yds+, the long irons appear to be in great shape.

With the driver also looking strong for Knapp prior to last week, he’s got an eye-catchingly strong profile for this test and can become the first debutant to win the event since Gary Woodland in 2011.

1.25 pts Viktor Hovland each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 45/1

Viktor Hovland endured a disastrous start to last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as he opened with eight-over 80 on Thursday. However, he bounced back with a 68 in round two and finally finding something on the greens, he looks worth chancing at this price in an event he’s performed well at in the past.

Hovland returned from a toe injury at the start of this year and alongside the uncertainty revolving around his game, with changes in coach, swing and putter, he’s struggled to find form in 2025, recording just one top 25 and coming into this week missing his last three cuts on the spin. Although, there have been positives within these poor results.

The Norwegian has looked strong in approach this season, ranking 11^th in this field across his four latest starts, and the driver had also looked largely solid until last week. It’s the putter that has caused the most concern, but he produced his best round of the year in this area in the second round at TPC Sawgrass, ranking 4^th and I’m hopeful of him maintaining that improvement on the comparable surfaces at the Copperhead Course.

Hovland was an excellent 3^rd in the Valspar Championship on debut in 2021, before finishing a solid 33^rd the following year, looking good on the greens on each occasion. A runner-up finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a 3^rd-place finish at Quail Hollow and two top fives at Riviera strengthens his case, and if able to pick up where he left off with the putter in THE PLAYERS, he could soon look a big price.

1 pt Ryan Gerard each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1

Florida resident, Ryan Gerard has produced some consistent results upon his return to the PGA Tour in 2025. Hitting the ball well and looking strong on the greens, he has all of the relevant areas of his game in prime condition and as a proven wind player, I’m confident he’ll be able to handle this week’s blustery weather.

Gerard has made seven starts this season, recording just the one missed cut in the Puerto Rico Open. He’s hit the top 25 on three occasions, finishing highest when 15^th in the Farmers Insurance Open and he enters this week after finishing 42^nd at TPC Sawgrass; an event in which he was 14^th going into the final round.

The long game and putter were both on point there, as they have been all season. He ranks 23^rd on the greens, top 50 in both approach and off-the-tee, and performing sharply with his long irons, he is a strong statistical match for the demands of this week’s layout.

Gerard finished 71^st on his only previous try at the course in 2023 and has little in the way of comp form. Having said that, his best ever finish on the PGA Tour came in a wind-affected Florida event in 2023, as he finished 4^th in the Cognizant Classic, which indicates that he may just enjoy the forecasted conditions in Palm Harbor.

1 pt Sam Stevens each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1

Sam Stevens began this year in good form and though those previous high levels have faded somewhat over his last few starts, it’s been a positive to see him continue to drive the ball strongly. That should serve him well here and as a player who is no stranger to performing in the wind – no doubt aided by his Texan roots – he’s another who should appreciate the breeze in Florida.

Stevens didn’t miss a cut over his first half-a-dozen starts this season, during which time he equalled his best ever finish on the PGA Tour, finishing 2^nd in the Farmers Insurance Open in difficult, windy conditions. He has missed two of his last three, largely due to the putter going unusually cold, but there’s nothing to be especially alarmed by and he wouldn’t have to find a great deal of improvement to replicate his early-season performances.

As mentioned, he’s been driving the ball superbly, combining power and accuracy to rank 3^rd in this field over his last seven starts. He had found gains in approach at the start of the year and whilst that has cooled somewhat, he still ranks top 50 from 200yds+. Often appearing at ease putting on similar surfaces to those at the Copperhead Course, he ticks many boxes this week.

Stevens hasn’t really got going in two attempts at this course, missing the cut in 2023 and finishing 64^th last year. However, as with his runner-up finish at Torrey Pines earlier this year, he was 2^nd in the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio in 2023 in the wind, and with both of those courses suiting strong drivers of the ball, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to perform here.

1 pt Erik Van Rooyen each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 125/1

Although his form figures for 2025 aren’t the most inspiring, Erik Van Rooyen’s game hasn’t looked all that far away. Returning to a course at which he finished 10^th when he last played here in 2023, he’s an attractive price to contend in the Valspar.

Van Rooyen has missed four cuts in eight starts this year but none of them by much. He did record his best finish of the year two starts ago in the Cognizant Classic, finishing 9^th.

The long game has looked in largely decent shape, ranking 22^nd in total driving, 28^th in greens-in-regulation and top 60 off-the-tee and in approach. Furthermore, he’s been one of the best players on tour with his long irons, ranking 4^th from 200yds+ and 8^th from 175-200yds; a level of all-round ball striking that should enable him to tackle this demanding venue.

Van Rooyen missed the cut on his Valspar debut in 2021 but improved markedly on his next visit in 2023, finishing 10^th. That was a result engineered by an excellent iron display, ranking 1^st in greens-in-regulation and 2^nd in approach, and with these areas looking in good shape this year, I’m happy to take the chance on him going even better this time around.

1 pt Mac Meissner each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 150/1

Mac Meissner hasn’t quite kicked on as yet in 2025 after a highly promising debut season on the PGA Tour in 2024. However, he made gains on the greens in last week’s PLAYERS Championship and having finished a commendable 26^th on his first spin around the Copperhead Course last year, as well as possessing a particularly encouraging piece of comp form, I’m happy to roll the dice on him at a big price.

Meissner began his year with a 21^st-place finish in the Sony Open, which has turned out to be his only top 25 of the season so far, missing three of his next six cuts and failing to record another finish in the top 40. He did look better at TPC Sawgrass, finishing 42^nd and recorded both his best putting and driving performances of the season. Improvements I’m hoping he’ll not just maintain but enhance further this week.

The regression in his approach play has been the biggest worry, dropping from 26^th in the rankings last season to 106^th this. Although, he did produce his second-best performance of the season with the clubs at Torrey Pines – a course where the long irons are key – and ranking 8^th on tour from 200yds+ last year, we know he has it in his arsenal to take it to this course with his irons.

Meissner putted solidly and looked strong in approach in that debut 26^th at the course in 2024. In addition, he finished 5^th in the correlating Charles Schwab Challenge later in the year and as another player with ties to Texas – the state he went to college and now lives – he won’t fear the wind. This is something that he proved when finishing 2^nd in the extremely difficult Panama Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023; an event which was eventually won with a score of -3.