Valero Texas Open 2024 First-Round Leader Tips: Five longshots to consider

The Valero Texas Open takes place from Thursday through Sunday on the PGA Tour and the event has attracted a very strong field as players look to get their game into form ahead of the Masters next week.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with a look at how the opening 18 holes may go as he picks out five players to consider as part of his Valero Texas Open 2024 First-Round Leader Tips...

The Texas Open begins tomorrow and with many players desperate to get off to a fast start, to give themselves the best possible chance of earning that final spot in the field at Augusta next week, I’ve taken a look at the first-round leader market.

There is no obvious bias for Thursday’s opening round, with the slightly gustier afternoon winds not enough for me to rule out players on that side of the draw. This is something that has become somewhat of a theme for this market in recent years, with the last eight first-round leaders split evenly between AM and PM start times.

Sam Ryder 80/1 – 1/4 5 places – 0.75 pts ew (First-Round Leader)

Start time: 07:42

I begin my speculative quintet of first-round leader selections with Sam Ryder. He’s been in consistent form in recent weeks, where his approach play and putting has enabled him to get off to regularly steady starts. Coming back to a place where he recorded a career-best 3^rd last year, he should be raring to go at TPC San Antonio.

Ryder hasn’t missed a cut in any of his last four starts and enters this week ranking 9^th in putting and 19^th in approach in this field over the last twenty rounds, which has contributed to him ranking inside the top 25 in round one scoring over that same period.

He looked especially good in the opening round of the Cognizant Classic, firing a 4-under 66 to sit 9^th, then repeating that same score in the final round. He continued to fire low rounds at the Valspar two starts ago, tying the best round of the day with a 65 in round four.

Ryder possessed some solid prior form in Texas and tied the low round of the day with a 66 in the second round in 2019 – a score that would’ve been enough for FRL in four of the last eight renewals. He blew that previous form out of the water with his 3^rd here last year thanks to another 66 in round four, showing again that he has the ability to go low at TPC San Antonio.

Max Greyserman 90/1 – 1/4 5 places – 0.75 pts ew (First-Round Leader)

Start time: 14:37

Rookie, Max Greyserman has started to find his feet on tour over recent weeks thanks to some strong starts. As a competent iron player with some positive experience of TPC San Antonio, he could well hit the top of the leaderboard by Thursday evening.

Greyserman only made one of his first four cuts this season but has made each of the last four, recording bests of 15^th in Puerto Rico – where he shot a 65 to share the FRL - and bettered that with his first top 10 of the year in Houston, firing a 67 to sit 11^th after the first round; replicating that score in round four to finish 7^th.

He has been hitting his irons well all season but those recent performances and the positive starts in them have been made possible by him finally finding something on the greens. Indeed he ranked 5^th in putting in that opening round last week.

Ranking 9^th in late tee-time scoring this year, Greyserman should be delighted with his start time and after shooting a 67 to sit 3^rd after the first round here on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, we know he has the ability to go low at TPC San Antonio early doors.

Joe Highsmith 125/1 – 1/4 5 places – 0.75 pts ew (First-Round Leader)

Start time: 09:10

Joe Highsmith has been starting excellently over recent weeks and coming to San Antonio off the back of his best approach display of the season in Houston, I see no reason why he can’t get off to another fast start.

In making four of his first eight cuts, the rookie has enjoyed a solid start to his first season on tour, though has been especially good in recent weeks. He finished 6^th in the Puerto Rico Open two starts ago, firing an opening 65 to share the FRL alongside Greyserman (among others) and finished 21^st in Houston last week, again opening with a 65, which was enough to see him sit 3^rd after the opening round.

This habit of starting quickly is something he’s carried over from the latter part of his year on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023, where among his better first-round displays he shot a 63 to sit 3^rd in the NV5 Invitational after round one, and an opening 64 saw him sit 6^th in the Albertson Boise Open.

Highsmith closed out his week with another decent round in Houston with a 67. His performance last week was in part engineered by his best approach display of the year, ranking 12^th, and if able to maintain that this week he may well give us a run in this market.

Ben Martin 125/1 – 1/4 5 places – 0.75 pts ew (First-Round Leader)

Start time: 12:46

Ben Martin has been one of the best iron players in this field over recent starts and returns to TPC San Antonio following his finest effort in this event last year. Also arriving here after making his best start of the season when we last saw him in the Valspar, he looks an interesting contender to be FRL.

Though his results have been solid if unspectacular, making five of eight cuts this year but failing to hit the top 30, Martin’s iron play has been superb - entering this week ranking 5^th in approach over his last twenty rounds.

This was well on show on that last start at the Valspar, where he ranked 11^th overall but 7^th in the opening round; with his 3-under 68 enough to see him sit 13^th – his best first-round finishing position of the season.

He has been struggling on the greens this season which is why he’s been unable to capitalise too much on that quality approach play. However there have been more positive signs in that regard lately, ranking 15^th in putting at THE PLAYERS Championship two starts ago.

Martin hasn’t missed the cut here in his last four visits. Whilst last year’s 10^th-place finish was his best in this event, he did finish 9^th here on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020. If he can find another blistering round in approach and marry it with some of those recent gains on the greens, he’d look a lively outsider to be FRL.

Kevin Streelman 150/1 – 1/4 5 places – 0.5 pts ew (First-Round Leader)

Start time: 13:52

Kevin Streelman has some good form at TPC San Antonio and arrives this week after his best finish of the season at the Valspar when he last teed it up. When we counter in the fact that he has sat 1^st after the opening round in two of his last three starts, he looks a huge price to be FRL.

Streelman didn’t make a cut over his first four starts this year but in recording finishes of 32^nd in Puerto Rico and 26^th in the Valspar in those last three starts, he appears to have turned his form around.

Those two finishes were both the result of fast starts, as he too fired a 65 in Puerto Rico to share the FRL; then shooting a 7-under 64 on his last start in the Valspar to take the solo lead at the end of day one.

We don’t have any strokes-gained data for Puerto Rico but the Valspar FRL came as a result of his best round of approach play of the year. After maintaining that for the rest of the week, I’m hoping he can carry it over into the first round in Texas.

Streelman hasn’t missed a cut here and has fired two top 10s, with a best of 6^th in 2019; which included him firing a 64 in round four, the joint-best round of the day. A repeat of that would certainly give him an excellent chance of hitting the top on day one and with his irons starting to fire I see no reason why he can’t keep that recent quick-starting run going.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.