US PGA Championship In-Play Betting Tips: Tasty Treble for Friday’s play

The first round of the 2025 PGA Championship was not short on talking points, with several of the star names underperforming. However, this has created plenty of intrigue as we enter this second day at Quail Hollow.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley has assessed the current state of play and given us his picks for Friday's action. Check out his US PGA Championship in-play betting tips below...

US PGA Championship Odds

Leaderboard after round one:

1^st – Jhonattan Vegas (-7)

T2 – Cam Davis (-5)

T2 – Ryan Gerard (-5)

T4 – Stephan Jaeger (-4)

T4 – Ryan Fox (-4)

T4 – Luke Donald (-4)

T4 – Alex Smalley (-4)

T4 – Aaron Rai (-4)

A lot of the talk in the build-up to this event had been about how the tournament felt like a regular PGA Tour event, and there’s no doubt that we have a first-round leaderboard that exacerbates that belief.

There has been just one major championship top-10 finish recorded among the current top eight in the last 10 years. Venezuela’s Jhonattan Vegas—a four-time tour winner who has a major best of 22^nd—leads the way on -7, closely followed by North Carolina-native, Ryan Gerard and the previously out of form Cam Davis.

Most surprising is that this year’s Ryder Cup captains: Keegan Bradley (USA) and Luke Donald (Europe), are both outplaying each member of their respective teams from the previous edition in 2023. Donald’s day one performance is all the more incredible, with the 47-year-old without a top-10 finish anywhere since 2019.

This of course means that many of the big names failed to show up yesterday. That is especially evident when looking at the marquee group of the top three players in the world: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.

All three of them made a double-bogey on the par 4 16^th—where we witnessed the height of mudball controversy as Schauffele hooked his approach left into the water— but while Scheffler was able to rally on his back nine to shoot a two-under 69, Rory and Xander both succumbed to over-par rounds, shooting a 74 and 72 respectively.

They weren’t alone in this, with other fancied players, such as Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay and Joaquin Niemann all languishing over par and in need of a positive performance today, just to make the cut.

SELECTIONS

3 pts Tommy Fleetwood & Shane Lowry to win their 3-balls @ 3.21/1

2 pts Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry & Collin Morikawa to win their 3-balls @ 8.27/1

Tommy Fleetwood to beat Jason Day & Phil Mickelson

Tommy Fleetwood came out on top in his 3-ball on Thursday and ranking higher than both Jason Day and Phil Mickelson in almost every area, I’m taking him to do so again today.

Fleetwood fired a one-under-par 70 in the opening round—three shots better than Day and nine ahead of Mickelson. He ranked 28^th from tee-to-green and looked especially good in approach, ranking 23^rd, while he was solid enough with the driver and putter for most of the round.

Day entered with injury concerns hanging over him, and chipping in for a birdie on his second hole was about as good as it got, as he struggled to find greens and lacked sharpness with the short game. Meanwhile, Mickelson has done little in majors since his Masters 2^nd in 2023 and there was nothing about his performance yesterday to suggest he has a dramatic turnaround in him.

Tommy arrived here in excellent form, recording a 4^th-place finish in last week’s Truist Championship—his best result of the season. Hitting the ball considerably better than either of his playing partners, he should take the beating in this 3-ball.

Shane Lowry to beat Brooks Koepka & Rickie Fowler

A terrible day with the putter meant that Shane Lowry was only able to tie his 3-ball with Rickie Fowler yesterday. He was head and shoulders above him and Brooks Koepka from tee-to-green, and looking largely sound on the greens this season, I expect him to bounce back and make that T2G superiority pay today.

Lowry was three-over thru seven holes yesterday, though he played his final 10 holes in one-under to shoot +2. The long game looked strong, ranking 7^th in greens-in-regulation and 24^th in ball striking and his approach play appeared in particularly good shape, ranking 7^th.

Fowler may have shot the same score, but he only made one birdie and ultimately relied on some decent scrambling to keep his score down. I feel he’ll need to improve on numbers of 113^th in ball striking and 129^th in approach to match the Irishman today.

It was also a disappointing start from outright selection, Koepka, as he struggled to keep the ball straight, ranking 138^th in greens-in-regulation and 145^th in driving accuracy. He’s failed to have an impact in majors since winning the 2023 PGA, and unless something drastically changes today, he looks set to follow his Augusta missed cut with another this week.

Lowry’s runner-up finish last week was his 2^nd of the season on the PGA Tour and comfortably outperforming his playing partners in 2025—ranking 13^th in total strokes gained, whilst Koepka ranks 76^th and Fowler 96^th—he should pull away from them on Friday.

Collin Morikawa to beat Justin Thomas & Dustin Johnson

Collin Morikawa was the standout performer in this 3-ball yesterday. With Justin Thomas’ long game all over the place and Dustin Johnson continuing his great major disappearing act since joining LIV, I fancy him to outplay them again in round two.

Morikawa eventually signed for a one-under 70 on Thursday and it could’ve been much better, as he double-bogeyed his final hole. He made six birdies in total—equalling the tally of his two playing partners combined—and although his ball striking had looked in good shape before the 18^th, it was with his short game he impressed most, ranking 3^rd in scrambling and 4^th around-the-greens.

Thomas was four-over after his front nine and did well to get it back to two-over on the back nine. That being said, although his long game improved on the back nine, it was the short game that did most of the heavy lifting, and it goes without saying that he’ll need to enhance terrible rankings of 156^th in GIR and 150^th in driving accuracy to make ground.

As far as DJ is concerned, he has recorded just one major top-30 since 2023 and after opening with a seven-over 78, it’s going to take a miracle for him to improve on that this week.

This should come down to Morikawa and JT, and with the former by far the most consistent major performer of this trio—recording a top-20 finish in each of his last five, while Thomas has just one in his last 11—I think he’ll kick on today and top this group.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.