US Open Sunday Betting Tips: 16/1 chance can prevail in New York

A firmer, faster Shinnecock truly came alive in Saturday’s third round at the U.S. Open, though it wasn’t enough to derail the impressive long-time leader Wyndham Clark, who enters the final round with a huge six-shot lead.

US Open Odds

Golf Odds

Leaderboard after round three:

1^st – Wyndham Clark (-7)

T2 – Scottie Scheffler (-1)

T2 – Sahith Theegala (-1)

T2 – Tom Kim (-1)

T2 – Sam Stevens (-1)

T6 – Emiliano Grillo (E)

T6 – Keith Mitchell (E)

T6 – Sam Burns (E)

T6 – Xander Schauffele (E)

Starting Saturday four in front, Clark produced a sublime scrambling display to not only maintain his position but improve on it, making a fantastic eagle on the par-5 16^th – the only eagle on that hole all day – to help him towards this six-stroke lead at the start of round four.

It’s the widest 54-hole margin that anyone has held since Rory McIlroy’s eight-shot lead at Congressional in 2011 and, with 20 of 21 players to hold such an advantage in a major having gone on to win, there’s every chance he’ll convert.

That said, with only two players shooting under par yesterday and the course firming up all the time, this is a place where no lead feels quite safe. This is without acknowledging that Clark will have Scottie Scheffler for company in the final pairing, as the world No. 1 secured one of those under-par rounds to move into 2nd on Saturday.

Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim and Sam Stevens are the only other players under par for the event. One shot further back at level par is Emiliano Grillo – who made the biggest climb on moving day with a three-under 67 – alongside Keith Mitchell, Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele.

It’s tough to know how far down the list we can search for contenders, as it all depends on how the leader does, but with four shots separating players from 2nd to 28th place, it would blow the event wide open if Clark does struggle.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Wyndham Clark 4/11, Scottie Scheffler 6/1, Xander Schauffele 25/1, Tom Kim 30/1, Sahith Theegala 30/1, Sam Burns 33/1

Wyndham Clark has now moved into a heavy odds-on favourite at 4/11, with Scottie Scheffler at 6/1. There is then a sizeable jump up to Xander Schauffele at 25/1.

This contest is completely in Clark’s hands, but the lack of wind compared to previous rounds could be both a benefit and a hindrance. It of course makes it easier for him to play the level of golf required to get over the line, though at the same time, it does increase the chance of someone repeating the 63 that Tommy Fleetwood managed during the final round here in 2018 and applying some pressure.

Having said that, rounds of that ilk are rare around Shinnecock, even in calm winds due to the firmness of the layout, and it is extremely likely that something around level par will be enough for the American.

I’ve found no joy on the two/three-balls this week and there is little to be gained by diving back into the outright betting. However, the “Winner without Clark market” is an interesting and highly-competitive one, and there’s one player who is a standout candidate to chase Clark home today.

Tommy Fleetwood – Winner Without Wyndham Clark

Currently sitting in 10th, two shots off 2nd place, Tommy Fleetwood looks value to find another excellent finish at Shinnecock. Not only was his final-round 63 here in 2018 the lowest round of that week, but his second-round 66 tied for the third-best score and, with his long game shaping up nicely yesterday, he looks primed to go low on championship Sunday.

With top-five finishes at the Memorial Tournament and Truist Championship across his last four starts, Tommy arrived in New York off the back of some of his best golf of the season. He carried that over into this contest, playing super-steady golf to record rounds of 70 and 71 to begin, though that was in spite of some underwhelming ball striking.

His long game was much more productive yesterday, as he ranked 2nd in GIR and 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee on his way to a level-par round – one of only seven players to not shoot over par on day three. Meanwhile, he’s been excellent on and around the greens all week, ranking 5th in scrambling, 11th in SG: Putting and 15th in SG: Around-the-Greens.

Fleetwood ranks as the 10th-best final-round performer in action this week, and if able to put it all together whilst drawing on those fast-finishing experiences from eight years ago, we could just see lightning strike twice as he closes in style to finish 2nd at Shinnecock.

2 pts Tommy Fleetwood (Winner w/o Wyndham Clark) @ 16/1