US Masters In-Play Betting Tips: Back Berger in this 2-ball

A spectacular moving day at The Masters yesterday has left us with an event that is perfectly poised as we head into today’s final round. One in which a certain Northern Irishman assumes pole position as he looks to finally get his hands on that elusive green jacket and join an exclusive six-strong list of players to complete the career grand slam.

Betfred Insights' expert golf tipster, Jamie Worsley, is back today with his US Masters In-Play Betting Tips, looking to pick out a couple of winners, which you can check out below...

Leaderboard after round three:

1st – Rory McIlroy (-12)

2nd – Bryson DeChambeau (-10)

3rd – Corey Conners (-8)

T4 – Patrick Reed (-6)

T4 – Ludvig Aberg (-6)

T6 – Jason Day (-5)

T6 – Scottie Scheffler (-5)

T6 – Shane Lowry (-5)

T6 – Justin Rose (-5)

US Masters In-Play Odds

Birdie-eagle-birdie, what a sensational start Rory McIlroy made on Saturday to take control of this event. It was the beginning of a genuinely breathtaking day of golf, as Rory responded to a couple of bogeys around the turn by making a birdie on the 13th and eagling the 15th to help him to a two-shot lead.

It’s the first time he’s held the 54-hole lead at Augusta since that infamous 2011 edition, when he started Sunday four in front but fired a closing 80 to drop to 15th. Suffice to say, he’ll be hoping for a better outcome today.

He's not had a better chance to win this event since, and barring a silly half hour on Thursday, where he gave four shots back on holes 15 and 17, he’s been head and shoulders above everyone else in the field so far. Something he, I and his wealth of fans will hope he emphasises later today.

The golfing gods are not subtle, and it’s pretty apt that the player who will join Rory in the final twosome is the man who agonisingly denied him in last year’s US Open, Bryson DeChambeau. Bryson trails by just two after finishing with a ridiculous 50ft birdie from just off the green last night, setting up a mouthwatering clash between the two today.

Canada’s Corey Conners stuck around stoutly, sitting four back with a round to go, and he will want to stop this from turning into a two-horse race. There is then a further two-shot gap to the duo of former winner Patrick Reed and last year’s runner-up Ludvig Aberg in T4; as the leader over the first two days, Justin Rose, finally relented, succumbing to a 3-over 75 to fall down to sixth.

That being said, the biggest surprise and disappointment of the third round was world #1 Scottie Scheffler. He never looked like getting anything going, making two birdies and two bogeys in a round of 72 to slip seven off the pace, and it will take something truly special for him to get his hands on this trophy for the third time in four years.

This 89th Masters Tournament has promised to be one of the best in modern times from the very start, and with a head-to-head between two of the game’s most popular yet divisive players – with their recent battle at Pinehurst in 2024 adding some extra spice to proceedings and giving us a classic redemption story – we couldn’t have hoped for a more tantalising final round at Augusta.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 1/2, Bryson DeChambeau 13/5, Corey Conners 18/1, Scottie Scheffler 35/1, Ludvig Aberg 35/1

The odds essentially make this a two-man show between Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, and while Corey Conners will still feel he has something to offer, I am inclined to agree.

With the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg seemingly too far back and relying on an implosion from the leading two to have even a glimmer of a chance, I am going to leave the outright betting well alone and just sit back and enjoy what should be a tremendously exciting final round.

Instead, it’s back to the 2-balls for this closing round, and I’ve selected three players that I’m hoping will get the better of their respective players' partners today.

Daniel Berger to beat Bubba Watson @ 4/6

Bubba Watson’s long game has regressed considerably after that super-encouraging first round, with him beginning to rely more and more on the putter as the week has gone on. In contrast, Daniel Berger’s ball striking has been rock-solid throughout the week, and I’m hoping that can help him take down his compatriot in this 2-ball.

Berger began the week with a 1-under 71 and has followed with two rounds of 73. He’s done most things well at one point or another, but it’s his ball striking that stands out, ranking 3rd in driving accuracy, 7th in greens-in-regulation, and 19th off-the-tee.

Bubba, meanwhile, also began with a 71 and looked good throughout the bag on Thursday, but he’s gotten gradually worse as the week has gone on, shooting level par on Friday and a 74 yesterday. He has his putter to thank for those rounds not completely spiralling out of control, ranking 1st in the field over the first three days. However, he also ranks 53rd out of 53 players both from tee-to-green and in GIR.

You feel something’s got to give eventually on the greens with that lack of quality in the rest of his game, and with Berger looking very steady, I fancy he’ll have the beating of his more erratic playing partner.

Sungjae Im to beat Max Homa @ 4/5

It has been great to see Max Homa find some form this week after enduring a dismal time of it so far this season. That being said, there are still big concerns over his ball striking, for all he hit some good approaches yesterday, and with Sungjae Im looking much the more consistent of this duo, he gets the nod in this matchup.

Sungjae himself has arrested some underwhelming form to enter this final round in 10th place on -4. He’s shot under par in every round, opening with a 71 on Thursday, before following with rounds of 70 and 71 in the last two days. The short game has been key, ranking top 10 in putting and around-the-greens, but after a wayward day with his ball striking on Thursday, he’s been much more accurate, into both the fairways and greens, in the last two days.

Homa, on the other hand, has largely struggled to keep the ball straight this week, ranking 50th in GIR and 51st in driving accuracy. Although his scoring has gotten better as the tournament has progressed, following a 74 in round one with rounds of 70 and 69, this hasn’t really improved, as shown by his rankings of 44th in GIR and 50th in driving accuracy yesterday.

He has been good in approach the last two days, ranking 13th for the week, but he will eventually come unstuck if he continues to leave himself out of position, and I expect Sungjae to take advantage of this volatility in Homa’s game.

Joaquin Niemann to beat Jon Rahm @ 13/10

To finish, I’m going to take a shot at Joaquin Niemann winning the battle of LIV’s first and third-ranked players against Jon Rahm today. He was electric from tee-to-green on Saturday, and if Rahm’s putting drops back to the level of the first two days without a substantial sign of improvement in his ball striking, the Chilean should have every chance of winning this 2-ball.

Niemann started the week by going 3-under through his first four holes but finished poorly on Thursday. This carried over into the second round as he fell to a 2-over 74, but he responded well yesterday, making five birdies in a round of 70, where he led the field off-the-tee and in GIR, whilst also ranking fourth from T2G.

Rahm opened with a disappointing 75, and although he’s followed with two rounds of 70, it’s still his short game doing all the work while his ball striking leaves a lot to be desired. Indeed, he made six birdies in his round of 70 yesterday but only did so thanks to a field-leading putting display, gaining 4.17 strokes.

That isn’t sustainable, and having lost strokes in approach each day and OTT in two out of three, he looks well worth taking on with a player who is among the best ball strikers in the field this week – an area in which Niemann ranks sixth overall.