US Masters In-Play Betting Tips: Collin can account for his Augusta rivals

After another thrillingly challenging day at a dry and firm Augusta National, the 88^th edition of The Masters looks perfectly poised as we head into what promises to be an electrifying final round.

Top 8 after 54 holes:

1^st – Scottie Scheffler (-7)

2^nd – Collin Morikawa (-6)

3^rd – Max Homa (-5)

4^th – Ludvig Aberg (-4)

5^th – Bryson DeChambeau (-3)

T6 – Xander Schauffele (-2)

T6 – Cam Davis (-2)

T6 – Nicolai Hojgaard (-2)

We started Saturday with three co-leaders but ended it with just one man sat at the top of the leaderboard, as world number #1, Scottie Scheffler bounced back brilliantly after some struggles around the turn (giving away three shots on 10 & 11) to shoot 3-under for his last six holes and reclaim top spot.

Scheffler carries a one-shot lead heading into this final round but he will have proven major-winning class for company in the final pairing, with Collin Morikawa’s third round 69 - one of only two rounds in the 60s on Saturday – vaulting him into second place, just one behind the leader. Despite struggling for form of late, Morikawa is a two-time major winner and represents a serious danger to Scheffler’s hopes of claiming a second Green Jacket, as he goes off in search of a win that would take him to within one of completing the career grand slam.

Though failing to make a single birdie in round three, Max Homa battled bravely to keep himself in contention for a first major title, and whilst giving away two shots over his final five holes, Ludvig Aberg’s 2-under 70 puts him on the cusp of achieving a historic first major victory on his first try.

Bryson DeChambeau didn’t have his best stuff yesterday but his closing hole-out birdie on 18 should give him a little more bounce in his step tomorrow, as he looks to make up that four-shot deficit at the top.

Nicolai Hojgaard hit the solo lead after his third birdie on the spin at the 10^th hole, though looked uneasy with the position he’d sprung himself into and proceeded to bogey his next five in a row. He will need to go extremely low in Sunday’s final round to become the first debutant to win this event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Looking good earlier on, Cam Davis succumbed to a similar fate to the Dane, giving away four shots around the turn and starts tomorrow on the same number. As does Xander Schauffele, who has slowly worked his way into the event but must now swap his steady play for something a little more spectacular in the final round if wanting to chase down those leading contenders.

SELECTIONS

History tells us that there are only a handful of players who can win this tomorrow, with no player managing to overturn a deficit of five strokes or more after 54 holes since Sir Nick Faldo’s famous six-stroke comeback against Greg Norman in 1996.

Further to that, just one player – Charl Schwartzel in 2011 – has come from four back in that period. Which realistically means we should look no further than that top 4 for our 2024 Masters champion.

Outside of overnight leader and clear favourite, Scheffler, among that top 4 are Max Homa and Ludvig Aberg, both clear major candidates but until today are untested in contention in one of the game’s four biggest events.

However, that isn’t true of the final man in this quartet and I’m taking Collin Morikawa to produce the goods in today’s final round and win himself that coveted Green Jacket.

Collin Morikawa to win The Masters @ 7/2 - 3 pts

I did state yesterday that I didn’t feel Scheffler was worth taking on with the question marks over many at the top and because of the fact I’d have been backing them in hope rather than expectation. Collin Morikawa answered those questions yesterday and now rates an obvious threat to Scheffler’s hopes of bagging a second Masters title.

The questions about Morikawa had nothing to do with his major or indeed his Augusta National credentials, but were all about recent results. Where he’d failed to hit the top 40 in his three previous starts and was unusually off-key with his approach play.

This was probably a little folly on my part as he has shown an innate ability to find his game when apparently looking a little lost right throughout his pro career. His second win on the PGA Tour in 2020 at Muirfield Village came following finishes of 64-MC on his two previous starts and he did win The Open in 2021 after a dreadful short-game display the week previous in Scotland; a performance that had people questioning whether he was a suitable candidate for that oldest major championship.

He simply doesn’t need to be showing a great deal previously if the course fits and despite his relatively meagre length, his approach play prowess has taken him to consecutive finishes of 18-5-10 in the last three Masters.

That outstanding quality has returned this week, as Morikawa ranks 4^th in the field in approach and he has complimented it with strength across all other areas. Coming from behind to win the first of his two majors at TPC Harding Park in the PGA Championship in 2020, he knows what to do in this position and is one of few players who could win this on their own merit having to hope the world #1 messes up

Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott and Patrick Cantlay to win their 2-balls @ 4.25/1 – 2 pts

I’ve also taken a look at today’s two balls and come up with a trio of selections who I think look primed to sign off the 88^th edition of The Masters in style.

Will Zalatoris to beat Tyrrell Hatton – 20/21

First up is Will Zalatoris. He hasn’t quite hit the lofty heights I expected of him this week but has performed well for the most part, and coming into the final round after his best ball-striking round of the week yesterday, I think he’ll have too much for Tyrrell Hatton today.

Zalatoris began the week strongly, shooting -2 in round one and showing positive signs right through his game. Like many, he struggled in the blustery day two conditions, shooting a disappointing 77 but responded well on Saturday with an even par round that was engineered by his ball-striking, ranking 1^st in greens-in-regulation, 3^rd in approach and 13^th off-the-tee

Hatton has been a little inconsistent throughout the bag this week, and has generally relied on his skills around-the-green, ranking 4^th. Having recorded a best in his seven Masters visits of 18^th in 2021, his record here is far inferior to Zalatoris’ superb 2^nd and 6^th-place finishes and I expect that prior record to tell today.

Adam Scott to beat Danny Willett – 8/13

Adam Scott has got better as the week has gone on, whereas his playing partner, Danny Willett, has understandably regressed. I expect that trajectory to continue today and am taking the Aussie to win the battle of the former champs.

Eight shots separated these two players after day one, following Willett’s hugely impressive 4-under 68 after seven months out and Scott’s disappointing 4-over 76, where he was among the worst players in the field tee-to-green.

Willett also played remarkably well in round two and if it wasn’t for a closing triple, he’d have again bettered Scott’s score but there was notable improvements in the Australian’s game, as he shot 72 and completely turned his T2G game around, ranking 5^th on that second day.

Scott improved again yesterday with his first under par round of the week, looking strong on the greens, ranking 4^th and in approach, ranking 8^th. Unfortunately, Willett’s lengthy absence looked to be finally catching up with him as he made six bogeys on his way to a 4-over 76 and with his own tee-to-green performances regressing as the week has gone on, I can only see Scott coming out on top in this two ball today.

Patrick Cantlay to beat Lucas Glover – 4/6

I’m going to finish with another shot at Patrick Cantlay, who at last got the hang of the greens yesterday to shoot his best round of the week and if in the same form today, he should have too much for Lucas Glover.

Cantlay started the week strongly with a 1-under par round and again began the second round brightly. Though like many, he was undone by the treacherous conditions late on Saturday, bogeying five of his last ten holes to fall back into the pack.

He had relied largely on a return to form with his irons over those first two rounds but as that area of his game let him down yesterday, he shone in all other areas and I was especially encouraged to see him rank 9^th on the greens. Which helped take him to a 2-under-par round.

Lucas Glover, meanwhile, has been consistent throughout the week, shooting rounds of 71-73-72. He actually shone most with the putter over those opening two rounds but that deserted him yesterday and as someone who generally struggles in that area more than most, you wouldn’t be confident in him bouncing back with the club today. Which would hand a big advantage to Cantlay.

US Masters betting tips from Betfred Insights.