Tour Championship 2024 Tips: Hovland to be the Viktor at East Lake

The FedExCup reaches its climax this week, as the top-30 in the standings head to a new-look East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is in ridiculous form right now, picking up six winners in his last six weeks of Betfred previews. Here he is back with another comprehensive preview and he's picked out three players to consider backing each-way, as he takes us through his Tour Championship Betting Tips. (Please note these are all in the 72-hole stroke play - without starting strokes market)

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Tour Championship debuted in 1987 as the Nabisco Championship. It has assumed this position, as the closing event of the FedExCup Playoffs, since the inaugural version of this end-of-season series in 2007.

At that point, despite still having a big say in who walks away with the FedExCup, it was a tournament in its own right. Which meant that someone could conceivably win the Tour Championship but not FedExCup and vice versa. That changed with the introduction of a new format in 2019, which has merged the Tour Championship into the FedExCup finale and means that whoever wins the tournament wins the FedExCup.

The current format sees each player in this 30-man field assigned a starting score based on their position in the FedExCup. The top-ranked player, which is again Scottie Scheffler this year, starts on -10, Xander Schauffele in 2^nd starts on -8 and this continues until we have the players ranked 26-30 starting at level par.

Rory McIlroy has won twice under this new system, both times starting the event with a deficit. He came from five back to win the first edition of this format in 2019 and from six strokes back to win the title in 2022.

As yet, only Dustin Johnson (2020) and Patrick Cantlay (2021) have gone on to win after starting at the top of the leaderboard, as Viktor Hovland overturned a two-shot deficit to win last year. The Norwegian defends the title this week but will need to make up eight shots to do so, starting the event on -2.

THE COURSE

East Lake Golf Club staged the Tour Championship in 1998, 2000, 2002 and has been the exclusive home of the event since 2004.

It was initially designed by Tom Bendelow in 1904, though following a redesign at the hands of Donald Ross in 1913, the course essentially became his design.

Several others have worked on the course over the last 100+ years, including Rees Jones on multiple occasions in the 1990s/2000s. However, there has been an extensive restoration project undertaken prior to this year’s renewal, which has been conducted by renowned golf course renovator/restorer, Andrew Green, with the aim of restoring many of Ross’ original design features. The result is striking and will leave those past visitors feeling as though they’re playing a different golf course this week.

The entire course was rebuilt and returfed, though still uses a variety of bermudagrass on the greens and in the rough, with zoysia in the fairways.

Said fairways have been widened and recontoured, which combined with the new grass will see them run much firmer in dry conditions. A vast tree-removal program has opened up the playing corridors, giving players more shot choices off-the-tee and repositioned tees will ask more strategic questions on particular holes.

The putting surfaces have been expanded and redesigned, using old images of the double greens for inspiration. They’ll sit much lower than previous and are more in-tune with their surrounds, which includes more short-grass chipping areas and provides tournament organisers with more options in terms of pin positions.

The largely repositioned bunkers are one of the most eye-catching changes. They’ve slightly increased in number but decreased in size and been made deeper. The top edges are sharper and more defined, which will create problems for players who find themselves closer to these steeper faces this week.

The course has been lengthened from 7346 yards to 7490, though that is offset somewhat by the new 580-yard par 5 14^th converting it from a par 70 to a par 71. This new setup now possesses 11x par 4s (390-510 yards), 4x par 3s (205-260 yards) and 3x par 5s (525-585 yards).

Previously one of the more demanding tests on tour, possessing an average winning/low score of -12.6 over the last 10 renewals, it will be interesting to find out what impact the changes will have on the difficulty this week.

THE WEATHER

Conditions will be dry and warm, with the humidity carrying with it a small threat of thunderstorms. Wind doesn’t look like being a factor, with gusts of a mere 10mph as bad as it’s currently forecast to get this week.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• Proximity 200yds+
• SG: Off-the-Tee
• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

Strong ball-striking has always been key at East Lake and despite the restoration making things more difficult to predict, I fancy it to be an area of importance again.

Approach play looks especially vital into these greens, with precise iron play a necessity to access some of the new pin positions. We can expand even further on that and with all four par 3s at over 200 yards, each of the par 5s requiring approaches of this distance to hit in two and several longer par 4s, including the 510-yard opener, approaches at greater than 200 yards will be prevalent.

Players will still need to drive the ball well into these more sloping and penal fairways. Meanwhile, those with experience of putting well on fast bermudagrass greens should have an advantage.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Previous comp form may me rendered useless due to the changes and I’m going to keep this section relatively light.

Two venues that do stand out are host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill and Wells Fargo Championship host, Quail Hollow. Each of these courses are lengthy championship layouts, with similarly sized bermudagrass greens, strong bunkering and plenty of water in-play.

In addition to that, we also have the benefit of having seen another Donald Ross design that has recently been restored by Andrew Green, with Oak Hill’s East Course hosting last year’s PGA Championship.

THE FIELD

This week’s 30-man field brings together the top nine players in the world and 17 of the top-20. Scottie Scheffler is both the world #1 and the top-ranking player in the FedExCup.

We had four changes within the top-30 last week. BMW Championship winner, Keegan Bradley rose from 50^th position to 4^th and he was joined by Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood and Chris Kirk in jumping inside the top-30; with Brian Harman, Jason Day, Davis Thompson and Denny McCarthy all making way.

East Lake will welcome nine debutants onto its grounds this week, in the shape of: Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An, Robert MacIntyre, Matthieu Pavon and Taylor Pendrith.

Full field list & their starting scores:

Scottie Scheffler (-10)

Xander Schauffele (-8)

Hideki Matsuyama (-7)

Keegan Bradley (-6)

Ludvig Aberg (-5)

Rory McIlroy (-4)

Collin Morikawa (-4)

Wyndham Clark (-4)

Sam Burns (-4)

Patrick Cantlay (-4)

Sungjae Im (-3)

Sahith Theegala (-3)

Shane Lowry (-3)

Adam Scott (-3)

Tony Finau (-3)

Byeong Hun An (-2)

Viktor Hovland (-2)

Russell Henley (-2)

Akshay Bhatia (-2)

Robert MacIntyre (-2)

Billy Horschel (-1)

Tommy Fleetwood (-1)

Sepp Straka (-1)

Matthieu Pavon (-1)

Taylor Pendrith (-1)

Chris Kirk (E)

Tom Hoge (E)

Aaron Rai (E)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (E)

Justin Thomas (E)

*You can get all the up to date and live Tour Championship Odds over on betfred.com.

SELECTIONS

The handicapped starting scores make the outright betting an unappealing prospect this week. However, we also have the “without starting scores” market on offer, which focuses simply on which player will shoot the lowest 72-hole score, and it’s this market I’ll be diving into.

Having continued to show positive signs last week following his 2^nd-place finish in the St Jude Championship, I’m taking last year’s low 72-hole scorer and outright FedExCup champ, Viktor Hovland to again fire the lowest score at East Lake.

2.25 pts Viktor Hovland each-way (1/4 - 4 places) @ 18/1 (72-hole stroke play – without starting strokes)

Hovland’s season has been one of the more disappointing after the successes he experienced in 2023, with struggles due to an inexplicable swing change the root cause. He showed improvements in an excellent 3^rd-place finish in the PGA Championship and though form had remained a little in-and-out following that, he’s caught the eye over his last two starts, finishing 2^nd in the St Jude Championship and 26^th in last week’s BMW Championship.

His approach play has been particularly impressive over these starts, ranking 4^th in both events and he has driven it well for most of the season, ranking 11^th off-the-tee. When we also counter in his top-25 ranking in proximity from 200yds+, he is a good fit for East Lake, before and expectedly after the renovation.

Hovland has played here on four occasions and has only shot a score over 70 once. He was especially good last year, shooting a 72-hole score of 19-under-par to win the FedExCup. A runner-up finish at the renovated Oak Hill in last year’s PGA Championship, along with top-3s in both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Wells Fargo Championship, should help him go well this week.

1.75 pts Wyndham Clark each way (1/4 - 4 places) @ 25/1 (72-hole stroke play – without starting strokes)

Wyndham Clark’s results have improved alongside his putting lately and with potentially strong comp form, I’m taking him to enjoy as good a spin around this revamped East Lake as he did last year.

Clark has finished inside the top-15 in five of his last six starts. Top-10s in the Travelers Championship and Scottish Open were followed by a missed cut in The Open, though he has bounced back with finishes of 14^th in the Olympics, 7^th in the St Jude Championship and 13^th in the BMW Championship on his last three starts.

He has been excellent off-the-tee all season, ranking 15^th and he’s predominantly been good on the greens, also ranking 15^th. That being said, he was showing some inconsistency with the putter from April-June, and it’s been a positive to see him rediscover more consistent form lately, gaining strokes in his last six starts.

Clark fired four rounds in the 60s on his East Lake debut last year, to finish 3^rd in the 72-hole stroke play market. Having won at Quail Hollow in 2023 and finished 2^nd in the Arnold Palmer Invitational this year, he has shown he can perform on similar setups and starting the week six off the lead, he will feel he still has some chance of taking the big prize on Sunday.

1 pt Byeong Hun An each-way (1/4 - 4 places) @ 50/1 (72-hole stroke play – without starting strokes)

Byeong Hun An makes his East Lake debut this week. However, that won’t be the disadvantage that it will have been in the past due to the restoration, and with his strong ball-striking, he can go well on this challenging layout.

An has had a really strong season, missing just four cuts in 21 starts and recording 12 top-25 finishes. Four of those have resulted in top-5s, including a 3^rd at Quail Hollow and he comes into this week having recorded three top-25s over his last four starts.

The Korean has driven the ball strongly all season, ranking 19^th and he’s been solid in approach, especially from over 200 yards, for which he ranks 21^st. He’s also been putting well of late and has produced many of his better performances on bermudagrass.

Aside from that 3^rd in this year’s Wells Fargo Championship, An has recorded two top-10s at Bay Hill. In addition, he’s performed well at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, finishing 2^nd and 3^rd. On both of those attempts he’s putted the bermudagrass greens well and if able to take confidence from that on his first spin around East Lake, he has the game to score well.

All our latest Golf Odds can be found over on Betfred.com. 

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.