The Sentry 2025 Tips: Cantlay to start the year in style

The PGA Tour returns for the start of its 2025 season this week, although, due to its extended finish with that trio of “unofficial” events, combined with this extra-early start date, it feels as though it’s never really been away.

We begin with the traditional two-week trip to Hawaii to launch the new campaign, starting with The Sentry at the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's The Sentry 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview. 

The field this week will be absent of world #1 Scottie Scheffler, who sustained an unfortunate hand injury from broken glass on Christmas Day that will see him out of action for the first three to four weeks of the year.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Sentry dropped the “Tournament of Champions” from its title last year and expanded the field. It is now a Signature Event and open to not only every winner of the previous season, but also each player who finished inside the top 50 in the FedExCup.

This event was first staged in 1953 and has occupied the position as the calendar year curtain-raiser since 1986. It has been played here at Kapalua’s Plantation Course since 1999.

Jack Nicklaus is the most successful player in the history of this limited-field tournament, winning on five occasions in 1963, 1964, 1971, 1973 and 1977.

We then have four players tied on three wins apiece: Gene Littler (1955, 1956, 1957), Arnold Palmer (1962, 1965, 1966), Tom Watson (1979, 1980, 1984) and Stuart Appleby (2004, 2005, 2006).

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Chris Kirk (-29)

               Runner-up: Sahith Theegala (-28)

• 2023 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-27)

               Runner-up: Collin Morikawa (-25)

• 2022 – Winner: Cameron Smith (-34)

               Runner-up: Jon Rahm (-33)

• 2021 – Winner: Harris English (-25, playoff)

               Runner-up: Joaquin Niemann (-25)

• 2020 – Winner: Justin Thomas (-14, playoff)

               Runners-up: Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele (-14)

Chris Kirk was somewhat of a surprise winner in Hawaii last year, as he shot a -29 winning score – the fourth lowest in the history of the event – to beat Sahith Theegala by one stroke. He returns this week, with the aim of being the first player since Geoff Ogilvy in 2010 to successfully defend the trophy.

THE COURSE

Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course was first designed by Coore & Crenshaw design in 1991. The duo renovated the course in 2019, with fairways firmed up and greens expanded closer to their original sizes.

The course measures 7596 yards and plays as an uncommon par 73. It possesses just 3x par 3s (161-219 yards), 11x par 4s (301-550 yards) and 4x par 5s (526-677 yards). With an average winning score of -24.9 over the last 10 renewals, it is one of the lowest-scoring venues on the PGA Tour.

The Plantation Course is a wide open resort course with dramatic elevation changes, some which provide players with spectacular views of the Pacific Ocean and West Maui Mountains.

Its sloping fairways are extremely generous and rank as the second-easiest to find on tour. Many require a downhill tee shot to find, which can significantly shorten the length of the holes and allow even the shorter hitters to get it out there.

The huge greens are bermudagrass – as is the rest of the course – and possess the second-highest greens-in-regulation percentages. Managing these undulating surfaces is the most challenging aspect of play at Plantation and players will need to work out how to handle them to make the most of the countless scoring opportunities.

There is no water in-play here and though the course is heavily bunkered – with 93 littering the property – they are easily avoided. It is a venue that just lacks in danger.

All par 5s are reachable in two – including the monstrous but severely downhill 677-yard 18^th – and there are several par 4s on which it’s possible to get the ball up and around the green. We’re going to need conditions to play their part to make things difficult at Kapalua this week.

THE WEATHER

Barring a couple of momentary showers, it looks set be a largely dry, bright and warm week in Hawaii. With nothing more than a 6mph breeze, there is little to stop our first field of the year taking the Planation Course apart yet again.

KEY STATS

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

A birdie-fest often calls for a hot week on the greens and it’s no surprise to see the putter rank as the most important club in many of the most recent renewals of the event.

Chris Kirk had a solid week on the greens in 2024, ranking 11^th. Each of the top 4 ranked inside the top 20 on the greens there, including Jordan Spieth in 3^rd ranking 1^st.

All of the top 4 ranked inside the top 10 with the putter in 2023, with winner, Jon Rahm leading the field and runner-up, Collin Morikawa ranking 2^nd.

2022 winner, Cameron Smith and Harris English in 2021 also topped the putting stats on putter-heavy leaderboards.

• SG: Approach

Approach play should be another key factor into these large surfaces and if that forecast rain turns into something a little heavier or longer-lasting, receptive conditions could play into the hands of the strongest iron players.

Chris Kirk was a solid 14^th in approach when winning last year and though Jon Rahm wasn’t quite at it with his irons in 2023, some of his nearest challengers were, with 3^rd-place finisher Tom Hoge ranking 1^st.

Cameron Smith ranked 7^th in approach in 2022; Harris English was 12^th in 2021, with his three closest competitors ranking no worse than 4^th; Justin Thomas excelled with his iron play when taking the title in 2020, ranking 2^nd; and Xander Schauffele led home a group of strong iron players in 2019, with each of the top 3 ranking inside the top 4.

• Birdie or Better %

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

RSM Classic (Sea Island Resort)

Whilst the Sea Island Resort doesn’t have the dramatic elevation changes seen in Hawaii, it offers some very similar ball-striking numbers to the Plantation Course.

It has the third-highest driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation percentages on tour and also lacks penalty, much like this week’s course. With bermudagrass also the grass of choice, there is much to tie these two venues together.

Notable correlating form:

Chris Kirk:

The Sentry (1^st) / RSM Classic (1^st)

Sahith Theegala:

The Sentry (2^nd) / RSM Classic (2^nd)

Brian Harman:

The Sentry (3^rd, 5^th) / RSM Classic (2^nd, 4^th)

Tom Hoge:

The Sentry (3^rd) / RSM Classic (4^th)

J.J Spaun:

The Sentry (5^th) / RSM Classic (2^nd)

J.T Poston:

The Sentry (5^th) / RSM Classic (5^th)

Shriners Open (TPC Summerlin)

The Shriners Open at TPC Summerlin is another extremely low-scoring event and possessing a comparably simple ball-striking test to that at the Planation Course, with fairways and greens among the simplest to hit, it can prove a worthy comp this week.

Notable correlating form:

Harris English:

The Sentry (1^st) / Shriners Open (4^th)

Ryan Moore:

The Sentry (3^rd) / Shriners Open (1^st)

Matt Kuchar:

The Sentry (3^rd, 6^th, 6^th) / Shriners Open (2^nd)

Pat Perez:

The Sentry (3^rd, 4^th) / Shriners Open (3^rd)

Tom Hoge:

The Sentry (3^rd) / Shriners Open (4^th)

Tom Kim:

The Sentry (5^th) / Shriners Open (1^st, 1^st)

Sungjae Im:

The Sentry (5^th, 5^th) / Shriners Open (1^st)

J.T Poston:

The Sentry (5^th) / Shriners Open (1^st, 3^rd, 4^th)

World Wide Technology Championship (El Cardonal)

El Cardonal at Diamante has hosted the last two editions of the World Wide Technology Championship and shares many similarities with the Plantation Course.

This hilly and exposed venue has elevation changes throughout and possesses some of the widest fairways and largest greens around – each ranking as the easiest to hit on the PGA Tour.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Kuchar:

The Sentry (3^rd, 6^th, 6^th) / El Cardonal (2^nd)

Ryan Palmer:

The Sentry (4^th) / El Cardonal (5^th)

THE FIELD

The field for our opening event of the season has of course been hit by that Scottie Scheffler mishap but we still have an exciting group descending on Hawaii. It is headed by world #2 Xander Schauffele and contains six of the world’s top 10, and 37 of the top 50.

Chris Kirk is our defending champion and one of just three former winners in attendance, joined by Justin Thomas (2020, 2017) and the aforementioned Xander Schauffele (2019).

We also have a glut of 19 debutants all teeing it up at Kapalua for the first time. This includes winner of 2024’s Scottish and Canadian Opens, Robert MacIntyre; fellow two-time PGA Tour winner in 2024, Austin Eckroat; and 36-year-old Rafael Campos, who gets into the field after earning an emotional PGA Tour breakthrough in Bermuda back in November.

The Sentry Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main The Sentry market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Xander Schauffele 5/1, Justin Thomas 10/1, Collin Morikawa 10/1, Patrick Cantlay 18/1, Sungjae Im 18/1, Ludvig Aberg 18/1, Hideki Matsuyama 18/1

This now increased field makes The Sentry a different betting prospect and with Scottie Scheffler’s absence it naturally feels a touch more open, for all 2019 winner Xander Schauffele is a worthy and clear favourite.

Xander did of course enter calculations here but I’m happy to leave him alone at the price in this first event of the year. This new start gives everyone a chance to reset and having gone through his second year without a victory on the PGA Tour in 2024, I’m taking Patrick Cantlay to end his drought in Hawaii.

3 pts Patrick Cantlay each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 18/1

It is true that Patrick Cantlay endured his worst season on the PGA Tour in 2024, both statistically and results-wise. However, he was by no means poor, missing just the one cut across his 18 starts and found some high-class performances among strong fields, most notably when 3^rd in the US Open. He also ranked 38^th in strokes-gained total for the season, putting up positive numbers across all areas.

The American found more consistency in the final months of his season, where he improved his approach numbers and among the very best putters around, he’s a great fit for the test at Kapalua.

Cantlay has played here six times and amassed a good record, with bests of 4^th in 2020 and 2022. He’s also a past winner and three-time runner-up in the Shriners Open, and as a player who knows how to win when the scoring is low, as shown by his -27 winning score in the 2021 BMW Championship, he ticked many boxes.

1 pt J.T. Poston each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 45/1 

J.T Poston excels when the scoring is low and if able to carry over the excellent form from his final two starts in 2024, he’d be a lively contender on his fourth start in The Sentry.

Poston bookended his 2024 campaign with quality. He began the year with a 5^th-place finish here and followed with a 6^th in the Sony Open a week later, before recording three further top 20s in his next four starts. Barring a 5^th-place finish in the RBC Heritage he largely struggled for form in the middle of the season, but he burst into life over the final weeks, recording his third PGA Tour victory in the Shriners Open and then finishing 5^th in the RSM Classic in his last two events of 2024.

As it has been throughout much of his career, the putter was a key asset, ranking 50^th on the PGA Tour last season. His approach play had been a little inconsistent, but he was hitting it better than at any other point at the end of the year, looking especially impressive when ranking 1^st with his irons on that latest start in the RSM Classic.

Poston debuted here in 2020, finishing 11^th and returned in 2023 to finish 21^st. However, he comfortably outperformed both of those prior efforts last year, finishing 5^th. His victory in the Shriners Open two starts ago bodes well and as a player who has recorded each of his three PGA Tour victories in scores of -20 or less, he’s ideally suited to this birdie-fest.

1 pt Austin Eckroat each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1 

Austin Eckroat himself enjoyed a season of two halves, but one that saw him become a two-time PGA Tour champion. Those wins get him into this event for the very first time and with some attractive comp form to his name, he may just like what he finds in Hawaii.

Eckroat’s breakthrough victory came in the Cognizant Classic all the way back in March at PGA National, where he emphatically distanced himself from the field by three shots. He remained solid enough thereafter but upped his game towards the end of the year.

A 6^th-place finish in the Wyndham Championship was the start of a sequence of results that saw him miss zero cuts and record three further top 20s over his final six starts of 2024. Furthermore, one of those top 20s came in the World Wide Technology Championship, where he won his second title of the year courtesy of an almost faultless 9-under 63 on Sunday at El Cardonal.

He's a player who does his best work with the ball-striking and his approach play was especially strong in 2024, ranking 27^th. The putter blew hot and cold, but he had it under better control over those final events and it’s a positive that one of those two wins came on bermudagrass at the Cognizant Classic.

The quality of Eckroat’s win in Mexico in a 24-under-par winning score really appealed here and as a player who has finished inside the top 20 on both starts in the RSM Classic, he should be able to give a bold account of himself on this first start in The Sentry.