The Players Championship 2025 FRL Tips: Five to fire early at Sawgrass

THE PLAYERS Championship begins on Thursday and while everyone will be desperate to get off to a fast start, there is one side of the draw that has historically held the advantage on day one.

He previews the opening round and gives his thoughts on the players who he feels have a good chance of taking the lead on Thursday. Check out his The Players Championship 2025 FRL Tips below.

The Players Championship 2025 Odds

The forecast is predicting pleasant playing conditions in the opening round, with warm, bright and clear weather throughout. Winds shouldn’t be too severe at any point, though it is breezier in the afternoon, with the 9mph gusts in the morning rising to 15mph later in the day.

That causes me to slightly favour those out early and indeed, it is those with morning tee times that have had the advantage in the first-round leader market here in recent years, with 12 of the last 18 (and seven of the last nine) players to hold at least a share of the lead on day one teeing off in the morning.

Therefore I’m going to focus all of my attention on the AM wave, as I look to crack this week’s first-round leader market at TPC Sawgrass with a bumper five selections.

0.75 pts Nick Taylor each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 08:57

Nick Taylor is first up. He’s been hitting his irons better than anyone of late and possessing several low rounds at TPC Sawgrass – one of which came in the opening round last year – he looks a good bet to make a fast start.

Taylor hasn’t missed a cut across his seven starts so far this season and recorded a victory in the Sony Open. His game has looked in good shape across most areas, but it’s the iron play that stands out, ranking 1^st in this field in approach over his previous 20 rounds.

The Canadian has predominantly been starting well of late, ranking 34^th in round one performance in this field in his last 10 starts and he has opened with an under-par round in four of seven starts this year.

Taylor has played here seven times, recording a best of 16^th in 2019. He made his best ever start last year, shooting a six-under 66 to finish round one in 4^th place and aided by the current state of his approach play, he can go three better this time around.

Golf Odds

0.75 pts Aaron Rai each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 09:08

Aaron Rai has stepped up his form over his last two starts, recording two straight top-15 finishes. Having performed well here on each of his previous two visits and doing most of his best work in round one so far this season, he looks a strong contender to be this week’s first-round leader.

Rai began the season with a solid 15^th-place finish in The Sentry and following a trio of less impressive results in California, he burst back into life in Mexico, finishing 4^th and backed that up with an 11^th-place finish at Bay Hill last week.

He’s been hitting the ball with the precision you’d expect, ranking 6^th in driving accuracy, 30^th in greens-in-regulation and 34^th in approach. In addition, he’s scoring better in round one than any other round, ranking 34^th.

Rai finished 19^th on his debut here in 2023, before returning to finish a commendable 35^th last year. His third-round 65 two years ago would’ve been enough to lead after 18 holes in six of the last seven renewals, and I’m hoping he can find a repeat of that tomorrow.

0.75 pts Brian Harman each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 08:13

Brian Harman has an excellent record at TPC Sawgrass – where he’s not been afraid of a fast start – and with his approach play warming up in recent events, he can fire himself to the top of the leaderboard in the opening round.

Harman has recorded three top 25s over his first eight starts this season and has generally played well, though has failed to threaten the top of the leaderboard too often. However, with his approach play at its best in his last three starts – over which time he ranks 15^th in this field – he looks ready for a big performance.

He’s had a couple of good starts this season and was particularly good over the first 18 holes at PGA National two weeks ago, firing a six-under 65 to sit 11^th after round one.

Positive starts are something he’s made a habit of doing in this event, opening with an under-par round in six of the last nine renewals. This includes shooting a five-under 67 to sit 2^nd after round one in 2021 and a six-under 66 to hit 3^rd place on the first day in 2019.

Further to that, Harman fired his best ever rounds at the course last year, shooting a 64 in round three and a 65 in round two. That helped him to a best ever finish of 2^nd and with three additional top 10s at the course to his name, we can be sure he’s a player who knows how to score strongly at this venue.

0.5 pts Joel Dahmen each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 110/1

Start time: 07:51

Joel Dahmen has had some eye-catching results at the beginning of this season, most of which have been engineered by getting off to a positive start. He has a good record at TPC Sawgrass – where he putts well more often than not – and can take advantage of his early tee time to take the first-round lead this week.

Dahmen missed his first two cuts this season but has since recorded two top 10s in his last four starts, finishing 6^th in the Mexico Open and 9^th in the Farmers Insurance Open.

He’s been hitting the ball particularly well over these starts, ranking 10^th in approach and 46^th off-the-tee in this field. Meanwhile, he’s scoring far better in round one than any other round, ranking 26^th in round one scoring; shooting a round in the 60s in four of his last five first rounds.

Dahmen finished 12^th here on debut in 2019 and went one better last year, finishing 11^th. He’s shot three rounds of 67 and a 68 over those starts alone and with the way he’s hitting the ball recently, he looks an appealing price to go even lower tomorrow.

0.5 pts Tom Hoge each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 125/1

Start time: 08:57

Tom Hoge not only holds the course record at TPC Sawgrass thanks to his sublime 10-under 62 in 2023, but he also has a history of starting quickly in this event. After his game showed signs of improvement at Bay Hill last week, he’s taken to reach the top on day one.

Hoge had played well over the first four events this season, including recording top 20s in The Sentry and at Pebble Beach. He hit a slump over his next three starts, when the putter and irons largely went cold, but he rediscovered form in both areas last week, which I’m hoping he can carry over into tomorrow’s opening round.

His approach play prior to the slump was so strong that he still ranks 25^th on tour this season, and as one of the strongest wedge/mid-iron players on tour, he has the ideal iron game for this course.

Hoge is a notoriously fast starter, indeed, he fired a 64 to take the first-round lead in each of the first two events of the season in Hawaii. He’s transferred this ability to this course twice in recent years, shooting a six-under 66 to share the lead after 18 holes in 2022, whilst a 67 shot him into 6^th place last year.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.