The Open Championship In-Play Betting Tips: Jamie’s picks for Round 3

The Open Championship is underway but that doesn't stop Jamie Worsley from working his magic. So without further ado, here are Jamie's specials Open Championship In-Play Betting Tips.

After a hugely entertaining, windy Friday at Royal Troon left most of this 152^nd Open Championship field feeling battered and bruised, a familiar player rose to the top of the leaderboard entering the weekend of this fourth and final major of 2024.

Golf Odds

Open Championship leaderboard after 36 holes:

1^st – Shane Lowry (-7)

T2 – Daniel Brown (-5)

T2 – Justin Rose (-5)

T4 – Billy Horschel (-2)

T4 – Dean Burmester (-2)

T4 – Scottie Scheffler (-2)

T7 – Corey Conners (-1)

T7 – Jason Day (-1)

T7 – Xander Schauffele (-1)

T7 – Patrick Cantlay (-1)

Following his 5-under-par round on Friday, 2019 Open Championship winner, Shane Lowry fired a score of -2 on Thursday. He fought back well from a double-bogey on the 11^th to birdie two of his last three holes and assume a two-shot lead entering the weekend.

The Irishman holds this position over two Englishmen, both of whom looked unlikely contenders entering this week. Daniel Brown continued to bely his recent form, as well as his inexperience at this level, by posting an admirable 1-over 72 in the strong winds. He is joined on -5 by former world #1 and 2013 US Open winner, Justin Rose, who has still only made one bogey all week - quite the achievement in these conditions - and gave fans plenty to cheer about with two birdies over his final three holes.

There is a drop of three shots to those in 4^th spot. At which, the ominous figure of Scottie Scheffler looms over the rest of the field, chasing his seventh win of 2024. Billy Horschel tied the round of the day in round two and is well placed to record his best ever Open Championship finish, whilst LIV’s Dean Burmester looks to have every chance of continuing his upward curve in the championship, hoping to better his 11^th-place in 2022.

Good friends, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay will play together for the third straight day, hoping to lean on this comfortable pairing to force their way into a strong position. They’re joined by Jason Day and Corey Conners on the same number, whilst just a couple of shots further behind is an elite group of major champions, with Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson all sat behind the leaders, poised for a weekend challenge.

The list of high-profile casualties after two rounds is an extensive one and we’re set for a weekend without Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Tiger Woods, Wyndham Clark, Cameron Smith, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland to name a select few.

SELECTIONS  

Though the winds for Saturday aren’t forecast to be quite as strong as yesterday, there’s still enough in the forecast – with gusts at upwards of 15mph predicted throughout the day – to keep players on their toes, and with rain predicted for the afternoon, conditions could again be difficult.

My pre-event headline selection, Xander Schauffele remains our best chance of a winner this week, starting the weekend six back of Lowry in 7^th, whilst 300/1 outsider, Mackenzie Hughes currently sits just outside the places.

Dean Burmester and Marcel Siem are both in control of their respective Top African/Top German markets and with Eric Cole also through to the weekend, he still has plenty to play for in regards to being the Top Debutant.

With so many chances still in-play I’m again not tempted to re-enter the outright market and will look to the 2-balls for today’s in-play selections.

Adrian Meronk to beat Minkyu Kim

First up, I’m taking Adrian Meronk to beat Minkyu Kim. Whilst sitting one shot better than the Pole currently, Kim has struggled to find fairways and greens, and if that continues today, I think he may finally come unstuck.

Meronk occupies 28^th place on the leaderboard at +3 and whilst he’s looked solid in all areas, he’s excelled with his ball-striking, ranking 21^st overall. Meanwhile, though Kim ranks high off-the-tee and has looked decent with the short game, taking him to +2 and 18^th on the leaderboard, he ranked outside the top-100 over the first two rounds in approach, greens-in-regulation and driving accuracy. Which will soon find him out if it continues.

Though both players have shown some decent form of late – Meronk finishing 2^nd at LIV Houston four starts ago and Kim winning the Korea Open three starts ago – the top-level experience of the players differs greatly.

Winning on the Challenge Tour as a 17-year-old in 2018, it’s been six years since Kim looked a future star, but he’s predominantly played in Asia since and made just his second major appearance this week, after missing the cut on his Open Championship debut in 2022.

In contrast, Meronk had developed into one of the most prolific players on the DP World Tour prior to switching to LIV, winning four times in 2022/23. He’s also looked good in his two appearances at the Open so far, finishing 42^nd on debut in 2022 and then 23^rd last year. With an array of strong form on exposed, linksy courses, he has the pedigree to make a move over the weekend. Whilst if Kim continues to show such inaccuracy with his ball-striking, I expect him to start heading south on the leaderboard.

Byeong Hun An to beat Brendon Todd

Byeong Hun An and Brendon Todd both sit in 38^th spot on the leaderboard on +4. However, the Korean found a much better ball-striking display yesterday after his struggles with the long game on Thursday and if he maintains that today, I see only one winner in this 2-ball.

Byeong An opened with a round of +4, in which he was uncharacteristically poor with his ball-striking, ranking 137^th and of the 156 players, he ranked 152^nd in greens-in-regulation. He was far better yesterday as he shot level par, ranking 28^th in ball-striking, 23^rd in approach and 27^th in GIR, and though his ranking of 92^nd OTT looks disappointing, that stat is skewed by just one truly poor hole, as he lost two strokes with the club when doubling the 11^th hole.

Todd, meanwhile, has shot two rounds of +2. He’s driven the ball inadequately, ranking 132^nd, where he hasn’t been accurate enough to compensate for his lack of length. In addition, though he still generally putts well, the club hasn’t been quite as reliable this season as in previous years and we saw that again yesterday, as he ranked 116^th in the field.

Byeong An has the far superior form this season, with several top-5s to his name, many coming in strong fields. Whilst Open Championship form reads well for the pair of them - Todd making three of four cuts, with a best of 12^th and Byeong An making six of nine, with a top-25 last year – Todd’s two best efforts came almost 10 years ago, and with the Korean possessing the sounder recent Open form of the two, making his last four cuts in a row, I fancy him to stamp his authority in this 2-ball today.

Chris Kirk to beat Austin Eckroat

Austin Eckroat was fancied to go well on his Open Championship debut and whilst comfortably making the cut on +4 has to go down as a success so far, he owes much to his putter. Unless he can find a better ball-striking display today, I expect Chris Kirk to take the beating in this 2-ball.

Both players sit in 38^th on +4. Kirk actually opened with a 1-under 70 on Thursday, though succumbed to yesterday’s tough conditions by shooting +5. However, he has hit the ball well over the two rounds, ranking 12^th in GIR, 20^th in driving accuracy and 31^st OTT. The putter was the concern yesterday, ranking 147^th, but he looked good on the greens when 25^th in round one and I’m hoping he can rediscover that form today.

Eckroat, on the other hand, has struggled with his ball- striking and ranks 140^th in GIR. His pair of 73s has largely been due to strong scrambling and putting, as he ranks top-20 in both areas.

This has come as somewhat of a surprise, as he’s a player that typically looks at his best with the long game, but often lacs quality with the short game. It feels like something’s got to give today and if he continues to struggle to find greens, he could be set for a difficult day.

Kirk has made two of his five Open Championship cuts to date, finishing top-20 in 2014. He’s gone well in two of the first three majors this year, finishing 16^th in The Masters and 26^th in the US Open, and with Eckroat largely struggling for form since winning the Cognizant Classic, I think the more experienced man has the advantage today.

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