The CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 Tips: Six to lone star in Texas

Our second men’s major of the year is just two weeks away, as Quail Hollow Club prepares to welcome the world’s best for the PGA Championship. We have another double-header on the PGA Tour next week immediately preceding that, but first it’s back to Texas for the CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with another in-depth preview of the event. He has picked out six golfers he likes the look of, as he takes us through his CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 Betting Tips...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

This tournament began life as the Texas Victory Open in 1944 and has always been held in and around the Dallas area. Five-time major winner and local legend, Byron Nelson won that inaugural edition and since 1968, the event has borne his name.

Tom Watson is the most successful player in the history of the event, winning on four occasions (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980). Sam Snead (1945, 1957, 1958) comes next on three wins and there have been five two-time winners: Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1971), Bruce Lietzke (1981, 1988), Sergio Garcia (2004, 2016), K.H. Lee (2021, 2022) and Jason Day (2010, 2023).

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Taylor Pendrith (-23)

Runner-up: Ben Kohles (-22)

• 2023 – Winner: Jason Day (-23)

Runners-up: Austin Eckroat, Si Woo Kim (-22)

• 2022 – Winner: K.H. Lee (-26)

Runner-up: Jordan Spieth (-25)

• 2021 – Winner: K.H. Lee (-25)

Runner-up Sam Burns (-22)

• 2019 – Winner: Sung Kang (-23)

Runners-up: Matt Every, Scott Piercy (-21)

Canada's Taylor Pendrith made his PGA Tour breakthrough in last year's CJ CUP Byron Nelson, converting a 54-hole lead to beat Dallas-born Ben Kohles by a shot. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

TPC Craig Ranch was designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened for play in 2004. It became host of this event in 2021 and has also been used on the Korn Ferry Tour in the past, both as the home of regular events and Q-School.

The course is currently in the midst of an ongoing renovation at the hands of Lanny Wadkins, who will complete a full rework of the course with the intention of making it more challenging. Some of these changes have already taken shape for this year's renewal, with the fairways considerably narrower than in previous editions, the rough thicker and the course will also play 155yds longer than last year.

That now means this par 71 will play to a lengthy 7569yds. It possesses 4x par 3s (147-232yds), 11x par 4s (361-512yds) and 3x par 5s (552-635yds).

Those changes should have the desired effect for an event that has averaged a winning score of -24.25 across the four renewals here. That being said, this gently-rolling parkland course is still reasonably straightforward.

Although tree-lined, there is plenty of room on most holes and the newly-tightened fairways are predominantly straight, with few severe doglegs. The abundance of bunkers don't protect the driving lines too harshly, though the players will have to watch out for that lusher rough, which is 3.25" long as opposed to 2.75" last year.

The bentgrass greens are large, usually slow and have ranked as some of the easiest to hit on tour. In addition, with the greens simple to read and an absence of difficulty around the greens – possessing the second-easiest scrambling test – it's home to one of the least complex short-game challenges on the PGA Tour.

TPC Craig Ranch's primary defence comes from water, with the snaking Rowlett Creek and several ponds coming into play on 13 holes.

That lengthening of the course should make this a much more balanced test. There are still plenty of birdie chances, with two of the three par 5s measuring around 560yds and several shorter par 4s, two of which (6 & 14) that could be made drivable.

However, they are now countered by the huge 635yd par 5 5^th; five par 4s above 490yds and three par 3s at 215yds+. Which should all help contribute to a somewhat harder-earned victory in this week's CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

THE WEATHER

Wet weather normally precedes this event and that again looks to be the case, with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to bring about some extremely heavy rainfall.

It is predicted to be bright and clear on Thursday and Friday, but the storms could return over the weekend and may be accompanied by gusting winds of up to 25mph.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

The driver has been key in most renewals and with higher demands off-the-tee expected due to the changes in course setup, I expect that to be emphasised further this week. Furthermore, the lengthening of the course and likely soft conditions should again play into the hands of the longer hitters.

Taylor Pendrith's excellent driving played a big role in his victory last year, as he ranked 6^th off-the-tee and 3^rd in driving distance. Six of the top seven there ranked inside the top 25 OTT.

Jason Day drove it well when winning in 2023, ranking 12^th. Eight of the top 10 ranked top 25 OTT and seven were 26^th or higher in driving distance.

Each of the top eight in 2022 ranked 32^nd or better OTT and five of the top six in 2021 were among the 25 strongest drivers.

• SG: Approach/Proximity from 200yds+

Approach has been another vital element and I'm especially keen to side with players who excel at over 200yds. That distance range has been the most common in recent years; with the extra yardage and softer course it should be even more prevalent this week.

Taylor Pendrith did manage to overcome weakness in this area to win last year but most of his nearest challenges were strong with their irons. Runner-up, Ben Kohles ranked 7^th in approach and 4^th-place finisher, Aaron Rai ranked 2^nd in greens-in-regulation and 3^rd in approach.

Jason Day was 3^rd in approach when winning in 2023, whilst K.H. Lee ranked 2^nd when winning for the first time in 2021 and 8^th in 2022. He led home approach-heavy leaderboards in both of those years; with six of the top 10 in each ranking inside the top 10 in approach.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)
• Par 4 Scoring

Proven ability to putt bentgrass greens well is an obvious plus and it's the variety on the par 4s that makes those holes the most important this week.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)

Another Tom Weiskopf original, TPC Scottsdale has provided us with some notable correlating form for TPC Craig Ranch in recent years. As a course where high-class drivers have often enjoyed success, it could be an even stronger comp due to those changes at this week's host course.

Notable correlating form:

K.H. Lee:

Byron Nelson (1^st, 1^st) / Phoenix (2^nd)

Sam Burns:

Byron Nelson (2^nd) / Phoenix (3^rd, 6^th)

Daniel Berger:

Byron Nelson (3^rd) / Phoenix (2^nd)

Byeong Hun An:

Byron Nelson (4^th) / Phoenix (6^th, 9^th)

Ryan Palmer:

Byron Nelson (5^th, 8^th) / Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd)

3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)

TPC Twin Cities is a similarly lengthy par 71 with large bentgrass greens, lots of water in-play and heavy bunkering. It also offers up a comparable ball-striking test to TPC Craig Ranch, with quality long iron play a necessity.

Notable correlating form:

Taylor Pendrith:

Byron Nelson (1^st) / 3M Open (5^th)

K.H. Lee:

Byron Nelson (1^st, 1^st) / 3M Open (6^th, 9^th)

Charl Schwrartzel:

Byron Nelson (3^rd, 8^th) / 3M Open (2^nd, 3^rd)

Alex Noren:

Byron Nelson (3^rd) / 3M Open (3^rd)

Rocket Mortgage Classic (Detroit Golf Club)

Detroit Golf Club is a course where big hitters have often gone well and with approaches over 200yds into the bentgrass greens commonplace, it can be a helpful comp this week.

Notable correlating form:

Taylor Pendrith:

Byron Nelson (1^st) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd)

Alex Noren:

Byron Nelson (3^rd) / Rocket Mortgage (4^th, 9^th)

Aaron Rai:

Byron Nelson (4^th) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd, 9^th)

Troy Merritt:

Byron Nelson (7^th, 9^th) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd)

Doc Redman:

Byron Nelson (9^th) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd)

Farmers Insurance Open/2025 Genesis Invitational (Torrey Pines - South)

With those alterations to TPC Craig Ranch in mind, I think Torrey Pines' South Course can give us some clues this week. This lengthy layout has narrow fairways and lush rough – making for a demanding driving challenge – and requires players to be strong in approaches from 200yds+.

Notable correlating form:

Jason Day:

Byron Nelson (1^st) / Farmers (1^st, 1^st)

Taylor Pendrith:

Byron Nelson (1^st) / Farmers (7^th, 9^th)

Scott Stallings:

Byron Nelson (3^rd) / Farmers (1^st, 2^nd)

Alex Noren:

Byron Nelson (3^rd) / Farmers (2^nd)

C.T. Pan:

Byron Nelson (4^th) / Farmers (2^nd)

Ryan Palmer:

Byron Nelson (5^th, 8^th) / Farmers (2^nd, 2^nd)

Jake Knapp:

Byron Nelson (8^th) / Farmers (3^rd)

THE FIELD

World #1 Scottie Scheffler is the star attraction in this week's field, returning to TPC Craig Ranch after skipping last year's renewal. He's just one of seven players from inside the world's top 50.

Last year's winner, Taylor Pendrith returns to defend and alongside 2019 champion, Sung Kang, there are only two previous winners in attendance.

The winner of the Byron Nelson Collegiate Golf Award in 2024, former world #1 amateur, Christo Lamprecht takes a break from Korn Ferry Tour action to tee it up this week. Meanwhile, we're also joined by current #8 amateur and Dallas native, Tommy Morrison.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Scottie Scheffler 14/5, Jordan Spieth 18/1, Sungjae Im 22/1, Byeong Hun An 25/1, Taylor Pendrith 25/1

Scottie Scheffler hasn't finished outside the top 25 in his eight starts this season and against a field lacking many of the biggest stars, this looks a great opportunity for him to notch up his first victory of 2025.

That being said, whilst still playing very well, he doesn't carry with him that same irresistible aura of last year. He'd won four titles at this point in 2024 and wasn't showing those flashes of frustration that he's displayed at times this season. Therefore, I'm happy to take him on.

1.75 pts Sam Burns each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 28/1

2023 runner-up in this event, Sam Burns headlines this week's selections. He showed glimpses of quality at Augusta two starts ago, finishing 46^th after missing his previous three cuts and again improving when we last saw him at the RBC Heritage, finishing 13^th, he looks ready to return to contention.

Burns started the season solidly, finishing 8^th in The Sentry and didn't miss a cut across his first six starts. He struggled with the long game during missed cuts in THE PLAYERS, Valspar Championship and Texas Open, but he's played much better in this regard across those last two starts, especially off-the-tee.

This big hitter ranked 20^th with the driver in The Masters and kicked on again with the club two weeks ago, ranking 4^th in the RBC Heritage – much more like it for a player who has gained strokes with the club every year since turning pro. He's also been typically excellent on the greens, ranking 4^th and as a competent long iron player at his best, he has the attributes to tackle this course.

Burns showed this to be the case on debut in 2021, as he shot 22-under-par to finish 2^nd. Although missing the cut on his only other visit the following year, 3^rd and 6^th-place finishes in Phoenix, along with several solid efforts in the 3M Open, are an indicator that TPC Craig Ranch is a good match and as a player who has recorded his last two victories in Texas, there's much to be optimistic about this week.

1 pt Jake Knapp each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1

Jake Knapp was the driving force behind his 3^rd-place finish alongside Frankie Capan III in last week’s Zurich Classic. Having performed commendably on his debut in this event at TPC Craig Ranch last year and possessing a compatible long game for this test, I’m taking him to carry that positivity over into this week.

Knapp only missed one of his first nine cuts of the season and hit a particularly purple patch of form in February/March, recording four top 25s in a row. This included a 6^th-place finish in the Cognizant Classic.

His strongest performances were a result of his best period of approach play this season. He’s been especially good from 200yds+, ranking 23^rd; when combined with his top-25 putting ability and ranking 34^th in driving distance, he fits the profile for this challenge.

Knapp held the 36-hole lead here on debut last year and sat one behind the leader entering the final round, before eventually finishing 8^th. His positive record at Torrey Pines, where he finished 3^rd last year and 17^th in the Genesis Invitational this, is another plus.

1 pt Austin Eckroat each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

After winning his second PGA Tour title of the year back in November in the World Wide Technology Championship, I expected Austin Eckroat to kick on in 2025. That hasn’t quite happened after a sound start to the season but there was encouragement to be found in his previous start, which I’m hoping he’ll maintain at a place where he finished 2^nd in 2023.

Eckroat finished 15^th in The Sentry on his first start of the season and recorded a second top-15 finish three starts later when 13^th at Pebble Beach. He missed five of his next seven cuts following that, losing form with his irons, but having rediscovered quality in this area last time out at Harbour Town, he was able to put up an improved 32^nd-place finish.

I’m more than hopeful that he’ll be able to carry that quality in approach over into this week, as it’s an area in which he ranked 27^th last season and sitting 32^nd from 200yds+ this, he has the long iron game for the course. He’s driving it just about as well as he did in 2024, ranking 43^rd and looking much sharper on the greens, his game could just be coming back together at the right time for this event.

Eckroat has only played here once before in 2023 and performed admirably, shooting four rounds in the 60s to finish tied at the top after 72 holes, eventually losing in a playoff to Jason Day. That should give him plenty of confidence as he returns this week.

1 pt Kevin Yu each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 66/1

Kevin Yu is one of the best ball strikers on tour and showing promise here last year despite missing the cut, I suspect he'll appreciate the more challenging conditions this week.

Yu has missed just two of his last eight cuts and has recorded four top-20 finishes over this time. His best effort coming when 12^th in the Valspar Championship three starts ago.

As you'd expect, his long game has been the key to his form and he's been particularly strong OTT, combining power and accuracy to rank 8^th. He also ranks 12^th in GIR and 21^st in approach, and has looked decent with the long irons, ranking 52^nd from 200yds+. A ball-striking prowess that should carry him far at this updated layout.

Yu missed the cut on debut last year but hit the ball strongly and firing rounds of 68 and 69 to miss by just one, he did little wrong. The more challenging setup should play into his hands, a belief that is franked by his 6^th-place finish at Torrey Pines last year – a place at which he also finished 17^th in this year's Genesis Invitational.

1 pt Sam Stevens each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1

Sam Stevens was born not far from here in Fort Worth and as a power-packed player who often excels when conditions are a touch more difficult, I fancy he'll produce his best performance yet in this event.

Stevens began the season positively, making the cut in each of his first six starts and he went extremely close to a tour breakthrough in the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing one shot behind winner, Harris English. He's not been quite as consistent over his next seven starts but there have been positives, including finishing 18^th in Houston three starts ago and he looked to have found something in approach in the RBC Heritage on his latest outing.

The driver is his biggest weapon, ranking 42^nd and he's a lengthy hitter. He's also typically been strong on the greens and as a solid player with the long irons, he's a sound statistical match for this test.

Stevens has played here twice, finishing 34^th in 2023 and 62^nd last year, shooting every round under par but ultimately finding the extremely low scoring too hot. As shown by his runner-up finish at Torrey Pines earlier this year, he's a player more comfortable when the going is tough and having also finished 10^th on bentgrass surfaces in the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, he has the comp form to suggest this setup can be a good fit for him.

1 pt Cam Davis each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 80/1

Following his eye-catching start to the season, Cam Davis hit a poor run of form from the middle of February-April. However, his 13^th-place finish in the RBC Heritage two weeks ago offered encouragement and in ownership of some appealing comp form in relation to this test, I'm expecting him to make a taking debut at TPC Craig Ranch.

Davis recorded three top 20s in his first four starts in 2025, culminating in a 5^th-place finish at Pebble Beach. He then missed his next five cuts in a row but arrested that slide at Harbour Town, shooting rounds of 70-66-67-71 to finish 13^th.

It was the short game that did most of the hard work there, but he did hit the ball better than he had in prior starts. He began the year looking good with his irons and though not as reliable of late, he's remained strong from 200yds+, ranking 20^th and as a lengthy driver he has that power profile that I'm searching for.

Davis is a two-time winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has recorded finishes of 10^th, 12^th, 16^th and 19^th in the 3M Open, predominantly putting well on the bentgrass surfaces in each of those events. These are results that should serve him well as he makes his debut in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson this week.

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