The American Express 2025 Tips: 250/1 shot one of six for California

The PGA Tour moves on to mainland USA for the start of its West Coast Swing, which begins with The American Express in La Quinta, California.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's The American Express 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview featuring six players priced from 30/1 all the way out to 250/1!

Nick Taylor is developing a habit of being absolute granite in contention in recent years. He holed that monster putt for eagle to beat Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff to take the Canadian Open in 2023, before then showing guts aplenty to beat Charley Hoffman in another playoff in the Phoenix Open last year.

We again saw that elite competitive mentality on show last week in Hawaii, as he chipped in for eagle on his final hole in regulation to force a playoff with Nico Echavarria. He then dispatched his Colombian counterpart by making birdie on the second playoff hole to record a fifth PGA Tour win, a victory that takes his playoff record on tour to 3-0.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The American Express (also known as the Desert Classic) is a multi-course pro-am event that was first staged in 1960. It was originally contested over five rounds but changed to the regular 72-hole format in 2012.

It is held across three courses in the La Quinta area of California: PGA West – Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West – Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.

The players and their respective amateur partners will rotate across those three courses over the first three days, playing one round at each. A 54-hole cut then takes place following the third round and all cut-makers return for one final round at the Stadium Course on Sunday.

Arnold Palmer is the most successful player in the history of the event, winning on five occasions (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973). Nobody else has got past two victories, with a nine-man group of double champions including Phil Mickelson (2002, 2004) and most recently Jon Rahm (2018, 2023), whilst Johnny Miller is the only player to win back-to-back titles, winning in 1975 and 1976.

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Nick Dunlap (-29)

        Runner-up: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-28)

• 2023 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-27)

        Runner-up: Davis Thompson (-26)

• 2022 – Winner: Hudson Swafford (-23)

        Runner-up: Tom Hoge (-21)

• 2021 – Winner: Si Woo Kim (-23)

        Runner-up: Patrick Cantlay (-22)

• 2020 – Winner: Andrew Landry (-26)

        Runner-up: Abraham Ancer (-24)

Last year’s renewal was a memorable one, as Nick Dunlap became the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991, doing so with a record -29 winning score on this current course rotation.

Dunlap returns to defend this week as a two-time tour winner, after he achieved a second victory in 2024 in the Barracuda Championship back in July.

THE COURSES

This week’s courses:

PGA West (Dye Stadium Course): 7210-yard par 72; 4x par 3s (165-227 yards), 10x par 4s (346-471 yards), 4x par 5s (535-600 yards),

PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): 7147-yard par 72; 4x par 3s (165-209 yards), 10x par 4s (364-462 yards), 4x par 5s (527-572 yards),

La Quinta Country Club: 7060-yard par 72; 4x par 3s (168-206 yards), 10x par 4s (382-469 yards), 4x par 5s (516-547 yards),

The current three-course rotation has been in place since 2016, although, the 2021 edition was staged at PGA West alone due to covid. Excluding a fleeting appearance for the Stadium Course in 1987, the two venues at PGA West are relative novices to the event, joining La Quinta Country Club, which has been a co-host of over 40 renewals of the Desert Classic and its various incarnations.

As is common with pro-am events, conditions for the tournament are more forgiving than they could be, with rough down and green speeds slow to keep it playable for the amateurs. This creates an all-out birdie-fest for the pros, with The American Express possessing an average winning score of -24.55 in the nine renewals since 2016.

The Stadium Course – which was designed by Pete Dye in 1986 and usually plays as the most difficult of the three courses – is our chief host this week and naturally, the course that we need to pay most attention to. An extensive multi-year renovation of the venue was completed last year, with the aim of restoring many of Dye’s original design points and increasing the demands of the course.

The green complexes and their surrounds have had the most significant changes, with green sizes increased, enabling for more challenging, water-adjacent pin positions. They have also been recontoured and the greenside bunkers have reverted to their initial state.

Each course uses bermudagrass at the base, though is overseeded with ryegrass in the fairways and poa trivialis on the putting surfaces at this time of the year. They are all well bunkered, with 80+ at each course and feature water as a constant danger, in-play on 21 of the 54 holes in total.

The two course at PGA West are desert courses, with most holes framed by sandy waste areas that are loosely dotted with trees. Each is reasonably open with generous fairways and average-large greens.

La Quinta CC is a more traditional parkland. Holes are more densely tree-lined and fairways tighter, whilst it also possesses the smallest greens at sub-5000ft on average. That being said, it is a short venue with a lack of punishment for errant ball-striking, which makes it susceptible to very low scores, as shown by Adam Hadwin shooting a 59 there in 2017.

Each of these layouts will be simplified in setup and despite the hardening of the Stadium Course, I still expect scoring to be good across the three this week, weather permitting.

THE WEATHER

Playing conditions look nigh on perfect for the players for most of the event, with bright, clear and warm weather on the cards from Thursday to Saturday, accompanied by nothing but a puff of breeze.

It is forecast to remain clear and bright for the final round on Sunday, though the wind may kick up somewhat compared to the rest of the week, with gusts of 25mph currently predicted.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity from 125-175 yards

You have to find a way to score heavily to contend in La Quinta, which often falls into the hands of the strongest iron players and putters in the field.

We only have data for each player’s performance at the Stadium Course. However, with two of the four tournament rounds played at that main host course, those stats still carry some weight in terms of giving us an idea into what is required to win this week.

Stats from the 2024 edition are incomplete with numbers from the opening round missing, though we do know that winner, Nick Dunlap excelled with his approach play and putting throughout his first year on tour.

Each of the four winners prior to Dunlap produced strong displays with their irons at the Stadium Course. Jon Rahm ranked 2^nd in greens-in-regulation and 7^th in approach in 2023; Hudson Swafford ranked 4^th in approach over his two rounds at that course in 2022; Si Woo Kim ranked 2^nd in approach and GIR in 2021; whilst Andrew Landry ranked 2^nd in GIR and 9^th in approach in 2020.

Delving a little deeper and it’s especially key to be dialled in with your wedges/mid irons around each of these courses, with proximity from 125-175yds important overall, and that 150-175yd range most prevalent at the Stadium Course.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass overseeded with poa trivialis)

The putter has also been vital for many a winner around this three-course setup.

Hudson Swafford ranked 2^nd on the greens at the Stadium Course in 2022; each of the top 3 ranked inside the top 10 on the greens in 2021, including winner, Si Woo Kim ranking 8^th; 2020 winner, Andrew Landry ranked 6^th and Adam Long ranked 9^th when taking the title in 2019.

• Driving Distance

Whilst not an absolute necessity, as proven by short and steady players like Andrew Landry winning, I do feel these courses can be taken on with driver, especially in benign conditions.

The fairways at two of the courses are generous and there is little rough on show, which means that those who do fail to find the short grass off-the-tee won’t be severely punished.

Nick Dunlap of course won last year and is a lengthy driver of the ball. The same could very much be said of two-time winners here since 2016, Jon Rahm and Hudson Swafford.

• Birdie or Better %

Lastly, this event takes an aggressive birdie-making ability to contend and no matter which specific area of their game a player excels in, checking out the birdie or better stats could prove vital to unlocking this week’s event.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands)

Looking at other Dye designs is an obvious place to start, with TPC River Highlands first up.

It is home to a typically low scoring event in the Travelers Championship and ranks closely to the Stadium Course from a ball-striking perspective, with driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation numbers close, and approaches between 125-175yds by far the most common.

Notable correlating form:

Tom Hoge:

AmEx (2^nd) / Travelers (3^rd)

Abraham Ancer:

AmEx (2^nd, 5^th) / Travelers (4^th, 8^th)

Brian Harman:

AmEx (3^rd, 3^rd) / Travelers (2^nd, 3^rd)

Michael Thompson:

AmEx (5^th, 9^th) / Travelers (4^th)

J.T. Poston:

AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Travelers (2^nd)

THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass)

TPC Sawgrass is the most familiar Dye design and features many of the same elements that are on show this week. The finishes at these two courses are especially similar, with a gettable par 5, an island green par 3 and a challenging par 4 defended by water to the left making up the final three holes.

In addition, they possess a comparable test off-the-tee and use a poa trivialis overseed on bermudagrass-based greens.

Notable correlating form:

Si Woo Kim:

AmEx (1^st) / PLAYERS (1^st)

Jason Dufner:

AmEx (1^st) / PLAYERS (5^th, 6^th)

David Lingmerth:

AmEx (2^nd) / PLAYERS (2^nd)

Tom Hoge:

AmEx (2^nd) / PLAYERS (3^rd)

Brian Harman:

AmEx (3^rd, 3^rd) / PLAYERS (2^nd, 3^rd)

Cam Davis:

AmEx (3^rd) / PLAYERS (6^th)

Talor Gooch:

AmEx (4^th) / PLAYERS (5^th)

Shriners Open (TPC Summerlin)

The Shriners Open at the desert-based setting of TPC Summerlin is another birdie-fest that provides a similarly kind ball-striking test to that which players will be faced with this week. A strong wedge game is key there and water makes for an exciting risk/reward finish.

Notable correlating form:

Si Woo Kim:

AmEx (1^st) / Shriners (8^th, 8^th)

Adam Hadwin:

AmEx (2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd) / Shriners (2^nd, 4^th)

Abraham Ancer:

AmEx (2^nd, 5^th) / Shriners (4^th, 4^th)

Tom Hoge:

AmEx (2^nd) / Shriners (4^th, 7^th)

Davis Thompson:

AmEx (2^nd) / Shriners (5^th)

Lanto Griffin:

AmEx (3^rd) / Shriners (6^th)

J.T. Poston:

AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Shriners (1^st, 3^rd, 4^th)

Matti Schmid:

AmEx (6^th) / Shriners (3^rd)

Michael Kim:

AmEx (6^th) / Shriners (5^th)

Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)

TPC Scottsdale is a desert venue with an exciting, water-laden finish, and has many other similarities that tie it in with this week’s host. It is particularly similar on approach into the poa trivialis overseeded greens; in possession of comparable GIR numbers and prompts players to hit a high percentage of approaches from 150-175yds.

Notable correlating form:

Jason Dufner:

AmEx (1^st) / Phoenix (2^nd)

John Huh:

AmEx (3^rd) / Phoenix (6^th)

Sam Burns:

AmEx (6^th, 6^th) / Phoenix (3^rd, 6^th)

Sanderson Farms Championship (Country Club of Jackson)

Although fairways are tougher to find at the Country Club of Jackson, it rates as one of the least penal courses on tour off-the-tee, much like this week. With a short game test that also compares due its lack of difficulty, it’s no surprise that players have been able to transfer form between these two events.

Notable correlating form:

Andrew Landry:

AmEx (1^st, 2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (4^th)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout:

AmEx (2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)

Kevin Yu:

AmEx (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)

Chris Kirk:

AmEx (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Bud Cauley:

AmEx (3^rd, 4^th) / Sanderson Farms (5^th)

Sepp Straka:

AmEx (4^th) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Dominic Bozzelli:

AmEx (5^th, 5^th) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)

Sam Burns:

AmEx (6^th, 6^th) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)

J.T. Poston:

AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Sanderson Farms (3^rd)

Rocket Mortgage Classic (Detroit Golf Club)

Lastly, the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club – which has seen four winning scores lower than -20 in six renewals – ranked closest to this week’s event in tee-to-green difficulty. Both fairways and greens are easy to find, whilst not punishing players for errant ball-striking and each requires players to be on form with their wedge game.

Notable correlating form:

Nick Dunlap:

AmEx (1^st) / Rocket Mortgage (10^th)

Adam Hadwin:

AmEx (2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd, 4^th)

Davis Thompson:

AmEx (2^nd) / Rocket Mortgage (2^nd)

Cam Davis:

AmEx (3^rd) / Rocket Mortgage (1^st, 1^st)

THE FIELD

After Xander Schauffele’s withdrawal, Wyndham Clark is the highest-ranked played in the field at #7 and the only player from inside the top 10 teeing it up this week.

There are a further seven players from inside the top 25, including the likes of Patrick Cantlay (#12) and Justin Thomas (#21); whilst 20 of the top 50 in total will be in attendance in La Quinta.

Our defending champion, Nick Dunlap is among those and one of six former winners in this week’s field. He is joined by Si Woo Kim (2021), Jason Dufner (2016), Bill Haas (2015, 2010), Jhonattan Vegas (2011) and Charley Hoffman (2007).

Players such as Rickie Fowler and Beau Hossler will make their seasonal debuts, alongside Matteo Manassero and Antoine Rozner, who both earned their first PGA Tour cards via the DP World Tour last season.

The American Express Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main The American Express market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Justin Thomas 12/1, Sungjae Im 12/1, Sam Burns 14/1, Patrick Cantlay 18/1, Tony Finau 22/1

The nature of this event leaves it open to surprise results, and we’ve had some huge-priced winners in recent years, with Nick Dunlap available at upwards of 300/1 last year and four of the last six priced at 150/1+.

This makes me cautious about taking those shortest priced this week. Instead, I’m going to start a reasonably speculative group of selections a few spots outside of those at the very top, with Wyndham Clark taken to claim the title in La Quinta.

1.75 pts Wyndham Clark each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 30/1

Clark bookended his 2024 campaign with quality, starting the year by winning at Pebble Beach and recording two runner-up finishes in Florida, before then signing off the season with six top-15 finishes across his last eight starts.

He looked to have given himself a good platform to make a similarly good start this year, finishing 15^th in The Sentry two weeks ago thanks to firing four rounds in the 60s, including an excellent 9-under 64 in round two.

Whilst he showed quality across all areas there, it was with the driver that impressed most, ranking 6^th and he led the field in driving distance. This is consistent with his stats from last year, as he ranked 8^th in driving distance and 18^th off-the-tee. Combined with his excellent top-20 ability on the greens and a strong wedge game, he’s a player who makes lots of birdies – ranking 10^th in birdie or better % – and ultimately, a strong fit for this challenge.

Clark has played this event on six occasions and amassed a good record, missing just one cut and recording two top 20s, performing best when 13^th in 2022. A runner-up finish in last year’s PLAYERS Championship is an excellent piece of form on a fellow Dye design and possessing top 10s in the Travelers Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic and Phoenix Open, he has a great deal in his favour to go well this week.

1.25 pts Davis Thompson each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1 

Davis Thompson has had a relatively slow start to this season but I’m taking him to hit his stride this week, in an event at which he finished 2^nd to Jon Rahm in 2023.

Thompson massively stepped up his form in his second season on tour in 2024. He missed just five cuts in 26 starts and recorded 12 top-25 finishes; twice going close at winning when finishing runner-up in the Myrtle Beach Classic and Rocket Mortgage Classic, before finally earning his tour breakthrough with an impressive four-stroke win in the John Deere Classic.

He began 2025 at The Sentry and sat dead-last after 18 holes following a dreadful five-over 78. However, he responded well with following rounds of 64, 68 and 67 to finish 36^th, but he’ll need to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut in the Sony.

There are few weaknesses in his game, as he gained strokes across all areas in 2024, ranking 13^th on the PGA Tour from tee-to-green. He is long and not lacking in accuracy off-the-tee, especially strong with his wedges in approach and though the putter was his biggest weakness last year, it’s perfectly solid when considering his strength in other areas.

Thompson was an inspired and close runner-up to Jon Rahm in this event on debut in 2023, shooting a 62 at La Quinta and rounds of 67 and 69 at the Stadium Course. He again looked good here last year, finishing 21^st, appearing comfortable on these greens for the second straight year and with a bunch of comp form to his name that includes a 2^nd-place finish in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a 5^th in the Shriners Open, along with his -28 winning score in the John Deere, we can be sure he has the skills to take down this type of test.

1.25 pts Cameron Young each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1 

Cameron Young made a good start to the season when 8^th in The Sentry two weeks ago. He looked much better on the greens there than he did last year and with some strong comp form in relation to this challenge, he can achieve that overdue tour breakthrough in California.

Young began excellent in 2024, with finishes of 2^nd in the Valspar Championship, 3^rd in the Dubai Desert Classic and a 9^th-place finish in The Masters. He lost his way in the middle part of the year but was looking solid over his final starts of the campaign, hitting the top 10 twice and missing zero cuts across his last nine starts.

He’s a player at his best off-the-tee, ranking 25^th last year and he’s among the longer players, ranking 29^th in driving distance. His irons went off the boil a touch towards the end of the year, but it was a positive to see him look good between 150-175yds in The Sentry. Although, that wasn’t as eye-catching as his putting, as he ranked 2^nd on the greens there – a huge upgrade on his performances in 2024.

Young has gone well enough on his two starts in this event, finishing 40^th in 2022 and 26^th in 2023. Having finished runner-up in both the Sanderson Farms Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic, I’m certain he can improve again this year and if able to maintain that upturn in form on the greens, he should be among the leading contenders.

0.75 pts Sam Stevens each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 100/1 

The excellent-driving Sam Stevens stepped up his overall level in 2024, particularly looking much improved with the putter. After another strong week in approach in Hawaii, continuing the form he’d shown at the end of last year, he looks ready to claim a first PGA Tour win.

Stevens looked good throughout last year, missing just five of his 30 cuts and hitting the top 25 on 10 occasions. His best performance came when 2^nd in the Wichita Open when stepping down in grade to the Korn Ferry Tour, though his top PGA Tour display came on his third-last start of the year, finishing 6^th in the World Wide Technology Championship.

He made his seasonal debut last week and though finishing down in 59^th there was significant promise to be found in his approach play, ranking 6^th and producing his second-best performance in the area since upgrading to the PGA Tour.

This lengthy driver hit the ball well last year, ranking 17^th off-the-tee and 31^st in greens-in-regulation. Though it was the gains he made on the greens, rising from being the 166^th best putter in 2023 to 38^th last year, that impressed most.

Stevens has made the cut on each of his two starts in this event but has failed to break into the top 60. That being said, it was notable how his best results in 2024 came in low scoring contests and with that including a 10^th-place finish in the correlating Rocket Mortgage Classic, I think he’ll improve his record in The AmEx.

0.75 pts Rico Hoey each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 100/1

California-based Rico Hoey was in fine form at the end of 2024 and with some positives to be found in his first start of 2025 in the Sony Open, I fancy he’ll be in the mix this week.

Hoey found the going tough in the first half of his rookie season, but it was a different story in the second part of the year. He made the weekend in each of his last 13 starts, hitting the top 25 eight times and recording four top 10s, including finishes of 2^nd in the ISCO Championship and 3^rd in the Shriners Open.

He looked good over the opening couple of rounds last week, sitting in 11^th place entering the weekend after an excellent second-round 64. Though failing to break 70 over the weekend, there was enough there to suggest his game remains in a good place.

The driver is a key weapon, marrying power and accuracy to rank 9^th last season. He also hits plenty of greens, ranking 16^th in GIR and possesses that heavy-scoring trait that is required to go well here, ranking 19^th in birdie or better %.

Hoey missed the cut here on debut last year, when he was in much worse shape on the greens. However, he’d improved greatly with the putter from June onwards and having finished 3^rd in the Shriners Open and 6^th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he has some attractive comp from that indicates an in-form Hoey will be a danger on this setup.

0.75 pts Isaiah Salinda each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 250/1

Former high-class amateur, Isaiah Salinda earned his spot on the PGA Tour for the first time via the Korn Ferry Tour last year, finishing the season in 18^th place in their season-long standings. Although missing the cut last week, there were plenty of positives to be found in his second round performance and as a strong, long driver who hits plenty of greens and makes lots of birdies, he could be suited to the challenge in La Quinta.

Salinda turned pro in 2019 following a successful amateur career that took him as high as #11 in the rankings. Among his highlights at that level were victories in the 2019 NCAA Stanford Regional and 2018 Pacific Coast Amateur – where he took down the likes of Collin Morikawa – whilst he also finished 3^rd in the 2018 US Amateur.

His pro career took a little time to get going but he was much improved last year, winning for the first time on the KFT in The Bahamas at the start of the season. Additionally, he gave a good account of himself in the US Open, ranking 25^th from tee-to-green on his way to a 32^nd-place finish.

The Californian missed the cut last week on the first start of his rookie season, though he did bounce back from a 2-over 72 in round one to shoot 2-under in the second round. I was taken by how high he ranked in approaches between 150-175yds, which will come in handy this week.

He’s not had many starts at PGA Tour level but has looked at home, as shown by his 7^th-place finish in the 2023 Shriners Open, and his game appears to be one of all-round quality. He was especially strong with driver on the KFT last season, ranking 1^st in total driving; along with ranking 6^th in birdie average and 15^th in GIR, he looks a good fit for PGA West.

Salinda has played here before and showed some promise, narrowly missing the cut by two in 2020. That 7^th in the Shriners Open bodes well for his ability to perform here, making this talented and unexposed player an interesting contender in the first event of the West Coast Swing.