T-Mobile Match Play 2025 Tips: Four picks for Sin City

There are just two events to go before major season gets underway on the LPGA. They’ll take a week off next week before that final pre-major event in the JM Eagle LA Championship, though first it’s to Vegas and Shadow Creek Golf Course for the fifth edition of the T-Mobile Match Play this week.

Our expert golf tipster Jamie Worsley, as always, is on hand with his comprehensive preview of the LPGA Tour. He provides several players to consider backing each-way as part of his T-Mobile Match Play tips with us at Betfred Insights, with selections from 22/1 all the way out to 110/1.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The T-Mobile Match Play debuted on tour in 2021 and has been held at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Vegas each year.

It returns to the same format as the first three renewals this year, after a short-lived deviation in the 2024 edition that incorporated an element of stroke play.

This original format is identical to the one used in the now defunct WGC – Match Play, in which 64 players compete in 16 groups of four over the opening three days, with the top performer from each group qualifying for the knockout stages over the weekend.

Past winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Nelly Korda beat Leona Maguire (4 & 3)

• 2023 – Winner: Pajaree Anannarukarn beat Ayaka Furue (3 & 1)

• 2022 – Winner: Eun Hee Ji beat Ayaka Furue (3 & 2)

• 2021 – Winner: Ally Ewing beat Sophia Popov (2 & 1)

Nelly Korda claimed the fourth of her seven LPGA victories in this event last year, comfortably beating Leona Maguire in the final after the Irishwoman had topped the stroke play part of that edition. The world #1 returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The spectacular Shadow Creek was designed by Tom Fazio and was the most expensive course ever built when it opened in 1989. Fazio has since returned to renovate the course in 2008.

This fun yet demanding par 72 will play at a lengthy 6765yds and possesses 4x par 3s (140-185yds), 10x par 4s (324-442yds) and 4x par 5s (480-561yds).

The land on which Shadow Creek is built was initially featureless and bare but has been transformed into a lush, green parklands surrounded by that desert backdrop. Tall pine trees frame the gently-rolling playing corridors – which feature a surprising amount of elevation considering the original landscape – and water forms a primary defence, in-play on nine holes.

Its fairways are around average in width overall and with a lack of punishing rough, it is left to the intelligently-positioned and penal bunkers to offer protection. Of which there are 74 in total around the property.

Bentgrass covers the putting surfaces, which are on the small side of average and predominantly elevated. These undulating greens could play up to a very speedy 12.5 on the stimp this week and with most severely sloped at their edges – that can lead to some tricky up-and-downs from well below the level of the green – players will need to be precise in approach.

The usual par 5 18^th at the course will play as the 9^th this week, which means that three of the four par 5s come up on the front nine. All of which are scoreable but have an element of risk/reward.

There is a fairly even mixture of tougher/easier scoring chances on the par 4s and among the four par 3s is the signature hole on the course, the 162yd 17^th. The cascading waterfall provides a stunning backdrop to this final par 3, where players will hit approaches into a small, shallow putting surface that is protected by bunkers, and water short.

THE WEATHER

The first day of the event looks set to have the most challenging conditions, with cool temperatures and strong gusty winds upwards of 32mph. However, it warms up from Thursday onwards, accompanied by sunshine and with little wind to trouble players for the rest of the week, they should be in for largely pleasant playing conditions.

KEY STATS

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

The putter is always a key weapon in match play and the area with which players can apply most pressure on their opponent. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see top putters go well in this event.

Ayaka Furue has twice finished 2^nd and has been one of the best putters on tour in recent years, as has last year’s runner-up and 2023 semi-finalist, Leona Maguire.

Other top-performing players such as Lilia Vu and Ariya Jutanugarn have also been good on the greens in their respective years.

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

Quality iron play into these small, challenging putting surfaces is a must and there have been many who excel in this area who have reached the latter stages of the event.

We need to look no further than last year, as the winner, Nelly Korda, ranked 3^rd in greens-in-regulation and 28^th in approach. Losing semi-finalists, Sei Young Kim and Narin An were strong with their irons too, with Kim ranking 6^th in GIR and 25^th in approach and An ranking 22^nd in approach and 37^th in GIR.

Ayaka Furue ranked 26^th in GIR and 29^th in approach in 2023 and Linn Grant was 5^th in GIR that same year. Meanwhile, each of the losing semi-finalists in 2022, Andrea Lee and Lilia Vu ranked inside the top 25 both in approach and GIR.

• Birdie or Better
• Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, mistakes aren’t always as costly in match play as stroke play and it’s much more important to be able to make birdies. Furthermore, with the volume of them early on, those able to get off to a hot start on the par 5s will give themselves a big advantage as they enter the back nine of their matches.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Due to the different format, I’m not going to get bogged down in comp courses this week and will keep it simple with three events.

Pure bentgrass greens are a rarity on the LPGA but there are two such courses that can help us out. Both the Arkansas Championship at Pinnacle Country Club and the FM Championship at TPC Boston are rolling, tree-lined venues with bentgrass greens that are similar in size to this week, whilst are also typically setup to play fast at 12 on the stimp.

In addition to those, the Meijer LPGA Classic at Blythefield Country Club may be worth checking out based on some strong correlating form. Ayaka Furue and Leona Maguire have the best records in this event overall – with Furue twice a runner-up and Maguire having finished 2^nd and 3^rd – and have great form here, with Maguire having won and twice finished 2^nd in the Meijer Classic, and Furue possessing three top-25 finishes from three visits.

THE FIELD

This week’s field includes eight of the world’s top 10 and 20 of the top 25, including that top three of Nelly Korda (#1), Jeeno Thitikul (#2) and Lydia Ko (#3).

Korda is the defending champion and is joined by just one of the other three former winners, in the shape of 2023 victor, Pajaree Anannarukarn.

Minjee Lee returns after being one of few high-profile players missing last week; whilst the biggest names among the 11 debutants are those of major winners, Ruoning Yin and Amy Yang.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Jeeno Thitikul 10/1, Nelly Korda 11/1, Ayaka Furue 16/1, Lydia Ko 16/1, Charley Hull 18/1

Although match play brings about a level of unpredictability, this is the strongest field ever assembled for this event and thus, it’s tough to see one of the big outsiders winning it.

I’ve looked to take try and take advantage of sections of the draw that appear more winnable and have come up with one selection from each quarter, beginning with the in-form Angel Yin.

2 pts Angel Yin each-way (1/4 4 places) @ 22/1

Yin has been playing exceptional golf since the latter part of 2024, when she recorded nine top-20 finishes across her last 11 starts of the year. The only thing missing there was a victory but after continuing to show form at the beginning of this year, she picked up her second LPGA title in the Honda LPGA Thailand three starts ago and comes into this having finished 13^th in the Ford Championship last week, where she fired four rounds in the 60s.

She’s putting typically well and is hitting plenty of greens, ranking 5^th in greens-in-regulation. That’s a good combination for any format, let alone match play and ranking inside the top 10 in birdie or better, she has many of the required assets for this event.

The American has played here on three occasions, losing to eventual winner, Nelly Korda in last year’s quarter finals and also made it out of the group stage in 2023, losing to Celine Boutier in the last 16.

In a group with Moriya Jutanugarn, Pajaree Anannarukarn and Jin Hee Im, Yin’s the clear pick on recent and event form combined and looks to have every chance of reaching the knockout stages of the event for the third year running.

1.5 pts A Lim Kim each-way (1/4 4 places) @ 30/1

A Lim Kim is in what looks the easiest quarter of this week’s draw and having won twice across her last seven starts, she should arrive here full of confidence.

Kim won her first title in almost four years at the end of 2024, as she claimed the LOTTE Championship in Hawaii. She then began this new season with a victory in the Tournament of Championship and has finished inside the top 20 on each of her four starts since.

The putter has looked sharp and she’s also producing some strong iron play, ranking 21^st in GIR and 35^th in approach. Along with ranking high in the scoring stats, sitting 3^rd in birdie or better and 16^th in par 5 scoring, she looks an ideal fit for this contest.

She has failed to make it out of the group stages in two previous visits but in a group that includes debutants, Amy Yang and Grace Kim, along with the lesser form of Jenny Shin, she looks to have a great chance of doing so this time with her game in such great shape.

The biggest stumbling block for Kim could come in the shape of a match against two-time runner-up, Ayaka Furue in the last 16. That being said, there’s a lack of real form in the rest of this part of the draw and if able to get through to the quarters, you’d fancy her chances of beating any of her potential opponents there.

1.25 pts Allisen Corpuz each-way (1/4 4 places) @ 35/1

Allisen Corpuz has been trending in the right direction this year and achieved her best finish of the season when 3^rd in last week’s Ford Championship. She’s played some solid golf in this event previously and looking super strong with her irons, I fancy her to make some noise in this part of the draw.

Corpuz was a little off it when 22^nd in the season-opening Tournament of Championship but has stepped that form up over her following starts, which included a 3^rd-place finish in the Honda LPGA Thailand two starts prior to last week.

Her iron play has been key, ranking 3^rd in GIR and 18^th in approach, whilst she’s again gaining strokes on the greens. With rankings of 27^th in birdie or better and 39^th in par 5 scoring, she can make plenty of birdies here.

She made it out of the group stages on her debut here in 2021, before losing to Lilia Vu in the last 16. Although she’s not advanced that far on two subsequent efforts, she does have some appealing comp form in the way of top-5 finishes in the Meijer LPGA Classic and FM Championship.

Celine Boutier looks the main danger in her group, but Corpuz has looked far better with her irons this year and I think she has the beating of the Frenchwoman here.

0.75 pts Yuka Saso each-way (1/4 4 places) @ 110/1

With defending champion, Nelly Korda occupying a spot in this final quarter of the draw, I felt if we were to chance someone we might as well go for someone at a bigger price. That player is two-time US Women’s Open winner, Yuka Saso, who despite struggling for form this year has maintained quality on the greens and seemingly having no trouble make birdies, she could be a danger in this format where her bogeys+ aren’t quite as damaging.

Saso has made four starts this year, going best when 17^th in the Honda LPGA Thailand. She arrives here after a missed cut in the Ford Championship, but she did make 10 birdies over those two rounds.

This is indicative of her performances for the season as a whole, as she has struggled with the long game but has still managed to make plenty of birdies, ranking 17^th in birdie or better. Predominantly due to her putting, for which she ranks 27^th.

Saso made her debut in this event last year and was unlucky not to advance to the knockout stages, losing out in a four-for-one playoff as she finished tied 8^th in the stroke play element. That offers plenty of promise and although she’ll first have to get past the in-form Yealimi Noh in her group before potentially playing Nelly in the last 16, she’s a player with a lot of class and has the quality on the greens to be a real headache for many in this event.

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