Phoenix Open 2025 Tips: Tom Kim attracts at Scottsdale

It’s been a steady start to the 2025 PGA Tour season, but it really burst into life last week as Rory McIlroy – making his season debut stateside – produced a superb weekend display to walk away with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Rory is expected to be back in action next week, for the relocated Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines – our third Signature Event of the year. Though first, we take a detour to Arizona for the Phoenix Open, where we can expect another raucous atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Phoenix Open 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview featuring six players priced from 28/1 all the way out to 125/1.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Phoenix Open was first staged in 1932, and it has been ever-present on the PGA Tour schedule since 1944. Known for its lively, party atmosphere, fans flock here in their hundreds of thousands every year, making it the most highly-attended tournament in the world.

Four players have tasted victory in this event more times than any other, with Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963), Gene Littler (1955, 1959, 1969), Mark Calcavecchia (1989, 1992, 2001) and Phil Mickelson (1996, 2005, 2013) all tied together on three wins apiece.

11 players have won the event twice, which features names such as Byron Nelson (1939, 1945), Ben Hogan (1946,1947), Vijay Singh (1995, 2003) and Hideki Matsuyama (2016, 2017).

Other notably top-class winners of the Phoenix Open include Bobby Locke (1948), Jack Nicklaus (1964) and Sandy Lyle (1988).

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Nick Taylor (-21, playoff)

        runner-up: Charley Hoffman (-21)

• 2023 – Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-19)

        runner-up: Nick Taylor (-17)

• 2022 – Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-16, playoff)

        runner-up: Patrick Cantlay (-16)

• 2021 – Winner: Brooks Koepka (-19)

      runners-up: KH Lee, Xander Schauffele (-18)

• 2020 – Winner: Webb Simpson (-17, playoff)

        runner-up: Tony Finau (-17)

2023 runner-up, Nick Taylor went one better last year, breaking Scottie Scheffler’s stranglehold on the event in the process. He birdied the second hole of a playoff to deny Charley Hoffman a first tour win in eight years and having started the year with a win in Hawaii, the Canadian looks set for a strong defence of his title this week.

THE COURSE

TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course opened for play in 1986 and became the permanent home of the Phoenix Open the following year. Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish completed the original design and Weiskopf then returned to oversee renovations in 2014, which focused on increasing the level of difficulty, predominantly the demands off the tee.

This appears to have done the trick, with the event averaging a winning score of -17.2 across the last 11 renewals; during which time we’ve only seen the winner hit -20 or lower on one occasion.

There are no changes to the scorecard this year, with this par 71 again measuring 7261 yards. It possesses 4x par 3s (163-215 yards), 11x par 4s (332-490 yards) and 3x par 5s (553-558 yards).

The course is challenging off the tee, with intelligent and penal bunkering tightening otherwise generous landing areas, whilst there are several on the back nine which are angled from the tee box. They rank among the 20 toughest-to-find fairways on tour and though the rough isn’t usually too punishing, there are plenty of nasty lies awaiting in the sandy waste areas that line many holes.

The quick and large greens are bermudagrass at the base but are overseeded with a poa trivialis/bentgrass/ryegrass mix for this event. They can be a real challenge to stick if firm, especially in the correct spots, with these mostly elevated surfaces abound with run-offs, and with many multi-tiered and severely sloped, they are hugely challenging to putt; ranking 4^th in putting difficulty on the PGA Tour.

TPC Scottsdale is a story of two halves, with the front nine of this flat, generally exposed venue lacking excitement. However, this all changes on the back nine, on which water comes into play on six holes, contributing to one of the most entertaining closing stretches on tour.

Among those final holes is the risk/reward 553-yard par 5 15^th, the drivable 332-yard par 4 17^th and the difficult 442-yard par 4 18^th – all of which are protected by water. Though it’s the unsuspecting 163-yard par 3 16^th that is the most famous hole on the course.

This little par 3 isn’t overly demanding on paper, but with the amphitheatre-like atmosphere created by stands of surrounding spectators, it becomes a real test of nerve and will reveal plenty about who has the temperament to take home the title on Sunday.

THE WEATHER

It’s forecast to be a warm, dry and sunny week in Arizona, which should help the course get up to speed. With little in the way of wind, firmness may be TPC Scottsdale’s only defence this week.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity from 150-175yds

High-class iron play has engineered many a player’s success here and I expect it to be no different this year, with particular attention paid to those who excel with the mid irons between 150-175yds.

Nick Taylor hit his irons well in 2024 when winning this event, ranking 1^st in proximity from 150-175yds, 2^nd in greens-in-regulation and 9^th in approach. Runner-up, Charley Hoffman ranked 2^nd in approach and GIR, whilst 3^rd-place finisher, Scottie Scheffler led the field in both of those areas.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 1^st in approach, 2^nd in approaches between 150-175yds and 3^rd in GIR when he won here in 2023, and although his overall approach play was less impressive in 2022, he still ranked top 20 in that 150-175yd range.

Brooks Koepka was 1^st in GIR and 2^nd in approach when taking the trophy in 2021, with runner-up, K.H. Lee ranking 5^th in GIR and 6^th from 150-175yds.

2020 winner, Webb Simpson ranked 1^st in approach, 2^nd from 150-175yds and 7^th in GIR; Rickie Fowler ranked top 20 in all three stats in 2019; Gary Woodland ranked top 10 in all three stats in 2018; and Hideki Matsuyama was top 5 both in approach and GIR in each of his 2017 and 2016 victories.

• SG: Off-the-Tee

Though not quite as standout as the necessity for quality iron play, few players manage to contend here without driving it well.

Nick Taylor was the first winner in nine years not to rank inside the top 25 off-the-tee; however, 3^rd-place finishers, Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler ranked 1^st and 2^nd respectively.

Scheffler also ranked top 20 in both of his victories and was especially good in 2022, ranking 4^th. Other strong driving displays from winners/contenders include Xander Schauffele ranking 2^nd OTT when losing in a playoff in 2021 and Rickie Fowler ranking 3^rd on his way to winning the trophy in 2019.

• SG: Putting (poa trivialis overseed)

Lastly, these challenging and large, sloping greens test the patience of even the most confident putters, and with the course set to play firm, they could be especially demanding this week.

Every winner in the last seven years has ranked inside the top 25 on the greens. Nick Taylor was particularly good on them last year, ranking 1^st, as did Rickie Fowler in 2019 and Scottie Scheffler was 2^nd with the putter in 2022.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)

Due to the likely firm conditions, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill should be a helpful guide. A flat course with large bermudagrass greens and water in-play, it possesses similar averages to TPC Scottsdale in both short and long game areas, whilst approaches in that 150-175yd range have often proven important.

Notable correlating form:

Scottie Scheffler:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / API (1^st, 1^st)

Charley Hoffman:

Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd) / API (2^nd)

Patrick Cantlay:

Phoenix (2^nd) / API (4^th)

Martin Laird:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th) / API (1^st)

Harris English:

Phoenix (3^rd) / API (2^nd)

Sahith Theegala:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th) / API (6^th)

Danny Lee:

Phoenix (4^th) / API (5^th)

Billy Horschel:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / API (2^nd)

Sungjae Im:

Phoenix (6^th, 7^th) / API (3^rd, 3^rd)

Byeong Hun An:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / API (8^th, 10^th)

Kurt Kitayama:

Phoenix (8^th) / API (1^st)

Houston Open (Memorial Park Golf Course)

Memorial Park is a generally flat and exposed course that suits quality drivers, with large, elevated and sloping greens – which are overseeded with poa trivialis – and fairways of a similar width to TPC Scottsdale. It ranks closely to this week’s venue in all areas and with approaches between 150-175yds hugely important, it looks a great comp.

Notable correlating form:

Scottie Scheffler:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / Houston (2^nd, 2^nd)

Hideki Matsuyama:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / Houston (2^nd)

Tony Finau:

Phoenix (2^nd) / Houston (1^st, 2^nd)

Sam Burns:

Phoenix (3^rd, 6^th) / Houston (7^th, 7^th)

Carlos Ortiz:

Phoenix (4^th) / Houston (1^st)

Alex Noren:

Phoenix (6^th) / Houston (4^th)

Billy Horschel:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Houston (7^th)

Texas Open (TPC San Antonio)

TPC San Antonio is another desert-based TPC venue with an exciting risk/reward finish, large poa trivialis overseeded greens and provides a similar test off-the-tee to this week’s course.

Notable correlating form:

Brooks Koepka:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / Texas (2^nd)

Gary Woodland:

Phoenix (1^st) / Texas (6^th, 8^th)

Charley Hoffman:

Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd) / Texas (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd)

Tony Finau:

Phoenix (2^nd) / Texas (3^rd)

Ryan Palmer:

Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd) / Texas (4^th, 6^th, 6^th)

Brendan Steele:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Texas (1^st, 4^th)

Martin Laird:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th) / Texas (1^st)

J.J. Spaun:

Phoenix (4^th) / Texas (1^st)

Matt Kuchar:

Phoenix (4^th, 5^th) / Texas (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th)

Chesson Hadley:

Phoenix (5^th) / Texas (4^th)

Billy Horschel:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Texas (3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Texas (6^th, 7^th)

Andrew Novak:

Phoenix (8^th) / Texas (9^th)

Cognizant Classic (PGA National)

PGA National is an open and exposed course, with quick and large bermudagrass-based greens that rank among the toughest to putt on tour. It has comparable averages to TPC Scottsdale in many areas and with the mid irons a key to going well, it’s no surprise to see lots of comp form on offer.

Notable correlating form:

Rickie Fowler:

Phoenix (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd) / Cognizant (1^st, 2^nd)

Mark Wilson:

Phoenix (1^st) / Cognizant (1^st)

Brooks Koepka:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / Cognizant (2^nd)

Gary Woodland:

Phoenix (1^st) / Cognizant (2^nd, 5^th, 6^th)

Ryan Palmer:

Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd) / Cognizant (2^nd, 4^th)

K.H. Lee:

Phoenix (2^nd) / Cognizant (4^th, 7^th)

Justin Thomas:

Phoenix (3^rd, 3^rd) / Cognizant (1^st)

Brendan Steele:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Cognizant (3^rd, 4^th)

Sungjae Im:

Phoenix (6^th, 7^th) / Cognizant (1^st)

Alex Noren:

Phoenix (6^th) / Cognizant (3^rd, 5^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Cognizant (4^th, 5^th)

Billy Horschel:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Cognizant (4^th, 8^th, 9^th)

Daniel Berger:

Phoenix (7^th, 9^th, 10^th) / Cognizant (2^nd, 4^th, 4^th)

Kurt Kitayama:

Phoenix (8^th) / Cognizant (3^rd)

Andrew Novak:

Phoenix (8^th) / Cognizant (9^th)

Sony Open (Waialae Country Club)

Possessing bundles of strong form ties, my last course for this week is Sony Open host, Waialae Country Club. This flat, coastal venue and its tighter tree-lined driving lines may not seem an obvious comp, but it has similar ball-striking and putting averages to TPC Scottsdale, and with approaches from 150-175yds comfortably the most prevalent, we see why these lines of form have developed.

Notable correlating form:

Hideki Matsuyama:

Phoenix (1^st, 1^st) / Sony (1^st)

Mark Wilson:

Phoenix (1^st) / Sony (1^st)

Nick Taylor:

Phoenix (1^st, 2^nd) / Sony (1^st)

Webb Simpson:

Phoenix (1^st, 2^nd) / Sony (3^rd, 4^th, 4^th)

Gary Woodland:

Phoenix (1^st) / Sony (3^rd, 6^th, 7^th)

Ryan Palmer:

Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd) / Sony (1^st)

Chez Reavie:

Phoenix (2^nd, 4^th) / Sony (3^rd)

Justin Thomas:

Phoenix (3^rd, 3^rd) / Sony (1^st)

Martin Laird:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th) / Sony (1^st, 1^st)

Brendan Steele:

Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Sony (2^nd, 4^th)

Scott Piercy:

Phoenix (3^rd, 6^th, 6^th) / Sony (2^nd)

Harris English:

Phoenix (3^rd) / Sony (3^rd, 4^th)

Matt Kuchar:

Phoenix (4^th, 5^th) / Sony (1^st, 3^rd)

J.J. Spaun:

Phoenix (4^th) / Sony (3^rd)

Byeong Hun An:

Phoenix (6^th, 9^th) / Sony (2^nd)

THE FIELD

Two-time Phoenix Open winner and world #1, Scottie Scheffler continues his return to action this week. He is one of three players from the world’s top 10, alongside fellow back-to-back winner of this event, Hideki Matsuyama (#5) and Wyndham Clark (#7), whilst there are an additional eight of the top 25 in attendance.

Nick Taylor is of course the defending champion and alongside Scheffler and Matsuyama, he is one of six former winners in this week’s field, joined by: Webb Simpson (2020), Rickie Fowler (2019) and Gary Woodland (2018).

Both Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard will debut in the event; as will Paul Waring, who makes the first start of his rookie PGA Tour season; and look out for a couple of high-class amateurs, in the shape of current #1 Luke Clanton and Spaniard, Jose Luis Ballester Barrio, who is the #4 amateur in the world.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Scottie Scheffler 3/1, Justin Thomas 11/1, Hideki Matsuyama 16/1, Sungjae Im 20/1, Sam Burns 25/1

To Scheffler or not to Scheffler? The world #1 returned from his prolonged absence with a promising 9^th-place finish at Pebble Beach last week, leading the field in approach. He now arrives at a course where he’s finished no worse than 7^th in the last four renewals and won twice.

The only question mark lies in the likeliness of him replicating the incredible successes of his nine-win season last year, which was rated as the 4^th-best season since 1983 by datagolf.

Scheffler may well keep winning this year but it’s a lot more difficult than he made it look in 2024, and with him still lacking rounds after the layoff, I feel there’s no better time to take him on.

Those just behind him in the betting all had their merits, though there’s a player priced a little bigger than the main market leaders who is a perfect fit for this event and the environment that comes with it, Tom Kim. After an improved performance at Pebble Beach, he goes in as the headline selection in Phoenix.

1.75 pts Tom Kim each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 28/1

After ending 2024 in good form, with runner-up finishes in the Genesis Championship and Hero World Challenge across his final three starts, Kim surprisingly struggled in the opening two events of this year, finishing 65^th in the Sony Open and missing the cut in The AmEx.

His tee-to-green game had looked solid enough in those events, but he was struggling on the greens. However, a return to a similar putter that helped him to his three PGA Tour victories for last week’s event paid dividends, with his ranking of 9^th on the greens partly engineering his 7^th-place finish.

The Korean’s ball-striking shone most last year and he was in especially fine form with his irons towards the end, ranking 6^th in approach over the last six months. He looks to have found some more power in the off-season, which contributes to continued progression off-the-tee and having putted these greens well on both previous visits, he looks a strong fit for this challenge.

Kim finished a solid 50^th here on debut in 2023 and despite starting poorly with a 74 last year, he responded brilliantly with three straight rounds of 67 or better to finish 17^th. His energetic personality – which we’ve seen on display in the Presidents Cup – is ideally suited to this week’s atmosphere and if able to build on last week, he’s sure to be in the mix.

1 pt Maverick McNealy each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1 

Maverick McNealy was among the best ball-strikers in the field at Pebble Beach but failed to get in contention due to an unusually poor week on the greens. Having putted well at TPC Scottsdale last year on his way to a 6^th-place finish, I fancy him to bounce back from that and contend for a second PGA Tour victory.

McNealy finished 2024 strongly, earning a first tour victory in the RSM Classic on his final start of the year. He then began this campaign with an 8^th-place finish in The Sentry and whilst not managing to hit those heights over his next three starts, his long game has been very encouraging, arriving here after ranking 4^th in ball-striking last week.

He’s been at his best off-the-tee and in putting since coming to the PGA Tour and it was these areas that aided his results last year, ranking 23^rd and 29^th in each stat respectively. Although, it’s his approach play that has been catching the eye most this season, as he ranked 3^rd last week and is 35^th on tour in 2025 after his four starts, which would be a major upgrade on previous years if he managed to maintain it.

McNealy withdrew in Phoenix on his debut in 2023 but proved this course to be a good fit last year, finishing 6^th. Based in Vegas, he’s more than accustomed to playing in the desert and can rely on that comfort to challenge this week.

1 pt Billy Horschel each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 66/1 

Billy Horschel has put up some promising approach performances on his last two starts and with a consistent record in this event, he looks a big price to contend in Arizona.

2024 was an excellent year for Horschel, as he won an eighth PGA Tour title in the Corales Puntacana Championship, regained the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and finished a close 2^nd to Xander Schauffele in The Open.

He lost a bit of form over his final few starts and carried that over into the first two events of 2025, but he’s been much better on his latest two, following a 21^st-place finish in The AmEx with by finishing 9^th last week.

Though he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, his biggest strengths lies in his quality off-the-tee and on the greens. Both areas have been solid at the start of this year and he comes here after ranking 8^th on the greens last week, but I was more taken with his approach play, as in gaining 1.6 strokes per round he produced his best performance in this area since the 2021 BMW PGA Championship.

Horschel has played here on 12 occasions, recording two top 10s, five top 25s and missing just one cut. He’s a player who looks at home on a firm and fast course, as he showed when 2^nd in the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational and having recorded several top 4s across the Texas Open and Cognizant Classic, he ticks many boxes.

1 pt Si Woo Kim each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

After a slow start to the season, Si Woo Kim came alive at Pebble Beach and possessing a nicely trending book of form here, he looks an attractive price for the Phoenix Open.

Kim began solidly enough at The Sentry, following an opening 76 with three rounds of 68 or better to finishing 32^nd. However, he missed the cut on his next start in the Sony Open and followed a 51^st-place finish in The AmEx with another missed cut at Torrey Pines. He finally got going at Pebble Beach last week, bookending the event with rounds of 67 to finish 12^th.

The four-time PGA Tour winner is a strong ball-striker, ranking 14^th in approach and 38^th off-the-tee last year. Whilst the driver has been firing over this first month of 2024, ranking 22^nd, his iron play has been a little disappointing, but he did gain strokes with the clubs last week and was doing his best work in round four. He can be unreliable on the greens, but he has been steady so far in 2025 and does arrive here after putting up positive numbers on his last two visits to TPC Scottsdale.

Kim missed three cuts and finished no better than 50^th on his first six starts in this event but appears to have got the hang of the course in the last three renewals, finishing 26^th in 2022, 23^rd in 2023 and recorded a career-best of 12^th last year. As a past winner of the Sony Open and having acquired a positive record in Texas – including a finish of 4^th in 2019 – he has some appealing comp form that suggests he can again improve his Phoenix Open record this week.

1 pt Austin Eckroat each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1 

Austin Eckroat developed into one of the strongest and most consistent ball-strikers on the PGA Tour in 2024. Coming into this week after his best display of the year in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I’m confident he can correct a small but uninspiring record at TPC Scottsdale.

2024 was a huge breakthrough year for this former #11 amateur, as he recorded the first and second pro victories of his career, winning the Cognizant Classic back in March and then taking the World Wide Technology Championship on his second-last start of the year.

He started this year in good fashion, finishing 15^th in The Sentry and after recording missed cuts in the Sony Open and Farmers Insurance Open, he returned to form last week, finishing 13^th.

The Oklahoma native hit the ball excellently last year, ranking 27^th in approach, 30^th off-the-tee and encouragingly for this event, he was 17^th in proximity from 150-175yds. This has continued into this year, with him ranking 19^th in ball-striking at Pebble and it’s also been pleasing to see him pick up where he left off with the putter last year, ranking 37^th on the greens over the last six months.

Eckroat finished 64^th on debut here in 2022 and then missed the cut last year, but his game wasn’t at the level that it now is. That win at PGA National certainly indicates he is capable of going much better here and I expect him to prove that this week.

1 pt Victor Perez each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 125/1 

Victor Perez has been hitting the ball well at the start of 2025 and having played better on his debut at TPC Scottsdale last year than the bare form figure suggests, I’m taking him to threaten the top of the leaderboard this week.

Perez enjoyed a positive first season on the PGA Tour, recording 3^rd-place finishes in the Canadian and Puerto Rico Opens. Although, no doubt his most memorable and agonising moment came when he narrowly missed out on the medals in the Olympics in his home country, finishing 4^th.

He looked good across the board when making his seasonal reappearance in The AmEx, with four rounds in the 60s firing him to a 34^th-place finish. While he may have missed the cut on his latest start in the Farmers Insurance Open, he played well at the South Course in the opening round before getting blown away on day two at the North Course in tough conditions.

The Frenchman hit the ball well on each of those starts, which was a continuation of how he played last year, gaining strokes in both ball-striking areas as well as on the greens. His irons were the strongest part of his game, ranking 39^th in approach and he is also an encouraging 52^nd from 150-175yds, making him a good fit for this course.

He went to college just one state over from Arizona in New Mexico and combined with being a player who has performed well on open, exposed courses on the DP World Tour, I expected a good showing on his debut in this event last year.

That didn’t quite materialise, as Perez missed the cut, but he actually hit the ball well and just suffered a torrid time on the greens in round one, leading to a 3-over-par round. However, he got the hang of them on day two, helping him to a round of 69, and with top 20s in Houston and at the Cognizant Classic indicative of how much this venue should suit, I’m expecting a vastly improved result this time around.