Phoenix Open 2026 FRL Tips: Jake the ‘Knapp’ for first round leader

The Phoenix Open begins at TPC Scottsdale tomorrow and with just mild winds on the cards, we should see a low-scoring scramble for the lead in round one.

Our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is here with four picks he fancies to start fast in his Phoenix Open 2026 FRL Betting Tips, which you can check out below...

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest WM Phoenix Open Odds over on betfred.com

Commencing at 7.20am, the morning starters will be welcomed by cool, bright conditions and an 8mph breeze. Temperatures rise as the day goes on (hitting highs of 25°C in the afternoon), while we should also see wind speeds reach 12mph as the second wave starts at around midday, before steadily decreasing.

With cooler temperatures and lighter winds early, and warmer but initially breezier conditions late, there doesn’t seem to be too much separating the field and we should be able to pick freely across the tee times.

1 pt Jake Knapp each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 50/1

Start time: 7.53am

I’ve picked two players from either side of the draw, starting with Jake Knapp. This explosive player has been scoring heavily at the beginning of 2026, and as one of the strongest first-round performers in action, he was a standout pick in this market.

Knapp returned with an 11^th-place finish in the Sony Open, where he particularly excelled with the putter, ranking 10^th, and the driver, ranking 19^th. He backed that up at the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing 5^th and looking strong in the same two areas, ranking 4^th in SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT) and 6^th in SG: Putting.

The Scottsdale resident shot seven under-par rounds out of eight across those starts, including opening with a 66 both in Hawaii and at Torrey Pines – resulting in a pair of top-20 first-round finishes.

That comes as no surprise for a contender who ranks 4^th over the last 12 months in first-round performance, most recently topping the leaderboard on day one of the Scottish Open. Not to mention his incredible 12-under 59 at PGA National back in March.

Knapp has finished 28^th and 44^th on his two previous appearances at the Phoenix Open. He has sat inside the top-15 on Thursday each time, kicking off with a 68 in 2024 and a 67 in 2025, and he has every chance of featuring towards the top end of the leaderboard again tomorrow.

You can read Jamie's full WM Phoenix Open Preview here...

1 pt Keith Mitchell each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 55/1

Start time: 12.22pm

Keith Mitchell has made steady progress in the early weeks of this season, arriving here after an 11^th-place finish at Torrey Pines. He got off to a decent start in California and, having posted plenty of low scores around TPC Scottsdale, this first-round machine can leap out in front on Thursday.

Mitchell began the season with a 66^th-place finish in the Sony Open before improving in The AmEx, finishing 44^th. He moved up a gear last week with that 11^th-place finish, hitting the ball better than anyone and looking particularly strong on day one, firing a five-under 67.

Ranking 7^th in this field in round-one performance during the last 12 months, he often does his best work at the start. He fired scores of 67 and 65 to share the first-round lead at the Valspar Championship and Houston Open, before claiming the solo lead after 18 holes of the Truist Championship thanks to a superb nine-under 61.

Mitchell has played in each of the last seven editions of the Phoenix Open, missing just one cut and recording four top-25s. While he’s never held the first-round lead, 18 sub-par scores in 26 rounds highlights his ability to score here, making him look a big danger tomorrow.

0.75 pts Tony Finau each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 8.26am

Tony Finau looked more like his old self at Torrey Pines, ranking 7^th in SG: Ball-Striking on his way to an 11^th-place finish. That was his best result for almost 12 months and possessing the knowledge of what it takes to go low in Phoenix, I’m taking him to carry that momentum into tomorrow’s opening round.

Prior to the Farmers Insurance Open, Finau hadn’t recorded a top-20 since the PGA Championship in May of last year. His Sony Open display did little to suggest that run was going to end any time soon, but he did improve when narrowly missing the cut at The AmEx. He then built on that in San Diego, closing with a six-under 66 to finish 11^th.

His once elite long game was regressive in 2025 but last week was a notable step in the right direction. In fact, it was his best ball-striking performance since the 2024 U.S. Open statistically, ranking 9^th in SG: Approach and 10^th in SG: OTT.

After finishing 22^nd on debut in 2015, Finau went on to miss his next four cuts at TPC Scottsdale. However, losing out to Webb Simpson in a playoff in 2020 – with his superb third-round 62 the second-lowest round of the week – and having finished 14^th on his most recent visit in 2023, it looks like he has at last figured out the course.

0.75 pts Sami Valimaki each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 100/1

Start time: 1.06pm

There is a chance that the late afternoon will be the most favourable part of the day, with temperatures at their highest and the wind slowing down. I’m hoping this will be just the ticket to help Sami Valimaki get his season going.

Valimaki was in terrific form at the end of 2025, finishing 2^nd in the World Wide Technology Championship before earning a breakthrough PGA Tour win in the RSM Classic two starts later. He has missed the cut in each Californian event to begin this new season, but he hasn’t been disgraced – falling one shot below the cut-line at Torrey Pines.

The Finn was striking his irons brilliantly over the final events of last year, ranking 9^th in this field in SG: Approach across the previous four months. He’s also 17^th in SG: Putting over the same period, and to complement both areas, he’s looked strong off the tee in those first two appearances of 2026.

Valimaki has a first-round lead as recently as five events ago, opening with an 11-under 61 in the World Wide Technology Championship. Although results of 41-MC at TPC Scottsdale don’t immediately jump off the page, he did close with a seven-under 64 in 2024 – the second-best score of the final round – and I’m banking on him channelling that effort on Thursday.

You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on betfred.com

Find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub