Jamie Worsley has already given us his main Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips but as an added bonus, he has also picked out two fancies to have a fast start on Thursday.
The forecast has changed a touch since the outright preview and we’re now set for tough conditions throughout the week; Sunday in particular is predicted to be brutal, with cool temperatures, rain and gusty winds up to 45mph on the cards.
Fortunately, the conditions should impact everyone equally, with the opening two days looking similarly wet and breezy; therefore none of the outright selections look at risk of getting stuck on the wrong course on the wrong day. Though this of course could all change with coastal weather often volatile.
I’m going to keep it light here and target the first-round leader market. The tactic of going for the earlier starters on bumpy poa annua greens almost worked out perfectly for us last week, as Scott Stallings finished just a shot shy at Torrey Pines and whilst there’s nothing that stands out to me in the FRL market at Spyglass Hill, there are two early starters at Pebble Beach who do take my fancy.
1.5 pts Christiaan Bezuidenhout each way (1/5, 5 places) First-Round Leader - Pebble Beach - 30/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout was high on my shortlist this week and though ultimately deciding against taking him outright, I feel this FRL market may be the ideal place to profit from his suitability to this course, as he tees off in the first group out at Pebble Beach.
The South African made his first and as yet only start in the event in 2022, finishing 14th; closing out with rounds of 66 and 69 – both at Pebble Beach – and putting these greens well, ranking inside the top 10 for his two rounds here.
He started the year strongly, finishing 2nd at the AmEx two weeks ago, looking typically strong on the greens but also produced quality with his irons.
Though narrowly missing the cut last week there was little to be concerned about, with him once again looking good in approach and as one of the strongest wedge players on tour in the last two years, he can again transfer this to Pebble.
Bezuidenhout has been making a habit of starting quickly in recent starts. He was 3rd after round one of the AmEx and signed off 2023 by sitting inside the top 10 at the end of the first round on his last two starts in South Africa. If he can dial in those wedges and take advantage of the untouched greens early on, he can make another fast start this week.
1.5 pts Brendon Todd each way (1/5, 5 places) First-Round Leader - Pebble Beach - 30/1
Brendon Todd has looked super-steady at the start of 2024, where he’s continued to look in the zone right from the off. He now comes to a course which is well suited to his game – as shown by several low rounds in the past – and in the second group of players to tee off at Pebble on Thursday, he looks ideally positioned for a first-round lead.
Todd finished 33rd at The Sentry and 30th in the Sony Open in the first two events of the year in Hawaii, with his accurate ball-striking and excellent short game taking little time to get up to speed.
He sat 7th and 12th after the opening rounds in each of those starts, and going back to the Travelers Championship in June last year, he has only sat outside of the top 25 after round one twice in his last thirteen starts.
Todd finished runner-up here last year thanks to a closing 65 at Pebble Beach – a repeat of his final-round performance in 2015. I’m hoping this top-class wedge player can transfer that ability to go low here to his first round this week.
You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.