Open de France 2024 Tips: McKibbin can pick up another title

Tyrrell Hatton ended his over three-year wait for a DP World Tour victory at last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, coming on top in a back-and-forth battle with Nicolas Colsaerts in the final round. It was a win that takes him to three Dunhill Links trophies in total, which makes him the most successful player in the event’s history.

There are just five events remaining on this season’s DPWT schedule. Before the players head to Spain for the final event on European soil next week, they will first make their way to Paris for the Open de France at Le Golf National.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's Open de France 2024 Tips, featuring six picks ranging from 30/1 to 110/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

First contested in 1906, the Open de France is the oldest national Open in Continental Europe. It has been staged almost every year since 1946 (excluding 2020 and 2021) and has exclusively been played at Le Golf National since 2002.

Jersey’s Aubrey Boomer won the event on five occasions (1921, 1922, 1926, 1929, 1931) in the pre-DP World/European Tour era. A period that also saw victories for esteemed names such as Walter Hagen (1920), Bobby Locke (1952, 1953) and Byron Nelson (1955).

Seve Ballesteros is the most successful player in the event since the establishment of the tour in 1972, winning four times (1977, 1982, 1985, 1986). Nick Faldo has won three (1983, 1988, 1989) and there have been four two-time winners: Peter Oosterhuis (1973, 1974), Retief Goosen (1997, 1999), Jean-Francois Remesy (2004, 2005) and Graeme McDowell (2013, 2014).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Ryo Hisatsune (-14); runners-up: Jeff Winther, Jordan Smith (-12)
• 2022 – Winner: Guido Migliozzi (-16); runner-up: Rasmus Hojgaard (-15)
• 2019 – Winner: Nicolas Colsaerts (-12); runner-up: JB Hansen (-11)
• 2018 – Winner: Alex Noren (-7); runners-up: Russell Knox, Julian Suri, Chris Wood (-6)
• 2017 – Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (-12); runner-up: Peter Uihlein (-11)

Ryo Hisatsune capped off an excellent first season on the DP World Tour by winning this event last year. He shot a final-round 66 to claw back a four-shot deficit, beating the duo of Jeff Winther and Jordan Smith by two strokes.

The Japanese star is in the U.S attempting to stamp his status on the PGA Tour next season, thus, he does not return to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Le Golf National has hosted the Open de France on 30 occasions and as mentioned, has been the permanent home of the event since 2002. Aside from hosting its national championship, we recently saw it host the Olympics just a couple of months ago and it was also the stage of the 2018 Ryder Cup.

The course was designed by Hubert Chesneau and Robert von Hagge in 1990, before undergoing renovations at the hands of European Golf Design in preparation for the Ryder Cup.

Le Golf National is a par 71 and measures 7247 yards, possessing 11x par 4s (375-486 yards), 4x par 3s (177-210 yards) and 3x par 5s (552-595 yards). It has traditionally provided one of the toughest tests on DPWT, averaging a winning score of -10.7 over the last 10 renewals.

This open and exposed American-style stadium course has somewhat of a linksy feel to it, with tall mounds – which provide a fantastic vantage point for fans – framing most holes.

The undulating fairways are around average in width and feature a fairly even mix of narrow and generous landing areas. Many are strategically bunkered and the ryegrass/fescue rough which lines the manmade mounds is very penal for those who stray too far from the short grass.

The poa/bentgrass mixed greens are large, fairly undulating and usually simple to find. However, most are placed at an angle to the fairway position and narrow/shallow in shape, which can result in some challenging pin positions across the week. They’re tough to putt and when combined with the thick rough, swales and hollows, and plentiful bunkering around them, results in Le Golf National ranking as one of the most punishing short-game tests on the DPWT.

All of these aspects of the course fail to mention the most prominent and intimidating design feature, its water hazards, which come into play on 10 holes in total. It especially makes for an exciting but danger-ridden finish, with holes 15, 16 and 18 all playing around the same lake.

Le Golf National ranks seventh-lowest in birdies made and possesses above average percentages for bogeys. It never fails to provide a serious examination in this tournament, regardless of the conditions.

THE WEATHER

There is a lot of rain in the forecast throughout the week, which should soften the golf course up. Although, accompanied by strong 30mph+ gusts on Thursday, players won’t be able to take advantage of those conditions.

That wind isn’t forecast to stick around for the rest of the week and there may be an opportunity for players to attack a receptive course over the other three days. Providing they don’t get caught in the rain that is forecast to continue on-and-off over the other tournament days.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach

High-quality approach play is always a must at Le Golf National and it will be extra pertinent this week with the forecast wet conditions.

This year’s Olympic event saw Scottie Scheffler win here with a field-leading approach display and of the top 8 there, none ranked below 16^th in this area.

Ryo Hisatsune ranked 3^rd when winning this event last year, with one of the runners-up, Jordan Smith, ranking 1^st.

Guido Migliozzi ranked 1^st in approach when he won in 2022, Nicolas Colsaerts ranked 2^nd in 2019 and 2018 champion, Alex Noren ranked inside the top 10.

• SG: Off-the-Tee

It’s a course that requires an all-round ball-striking performance of a high standard and we witnessed that again at the Olympics. Scottie Scheffler complimented his approach play by ranking 3^rd off-the-tee when winning the gold medal and each of the top 5 drivers in that field finished 9^th or better.

Jordan Smith ranked 1^st OTT when runner-up in this event last year, whilst 2022 and 2019 winners, Guido Migliozzi and Nicolas Colsaerts are players who have excelled with driver at points during their respective careers. Something that can also be said about contenders such as Thomas Pieters, Kurt Kitayama and Paul Barjon.

• SG: Putting (Poa/Bent)

Lastly, the majority of winners here putt strongly, with both Ryo Hisatsune last year and Guido Migloizzi in 2022 ranking inside the top 10 on the greens. We can focus our attention even closer on players who have previously performed well on poa or a poa/bent mix.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Made in HimmerLand (HimmerLand Resort)

Due to its exposed, linksy nature, with steep mounds framing the fairways, the HimmerLand Resort possesses a similarly difficult ball-striking test to Le Golf National and has developed strong form-ties with the course.

Notable correlating form:

Bernd Wiesberger:

France (1^st) / HimmerLand (1^st, 1^st)

Guido Migliozzi:

France (1^st) / HimmerLand (2^nd)

Pablo Larrazabal:

France (1^st) / HimmerLand (4^th)

Ryo Hisatsune:

France (1^st) / HimmerLand (8^th)

Rasmus Hojgaard:

France (2^nd, 4^th) / HimmerLand (1^st)

Julian Suri:

France (2^nd) / HimmerLand (1^st)

Jordan Smith:

France (2^nd) / HimmerLand (3^rd)

Thomas Pieters:

France (3^rd) / HimmerLand (1^st)

Alexander Bjork:

France (3^rd, 8^th) / HimmerLand (4^th, 6^th)

Richie Ramsay:

France (5^th, 5^th) / HimmerLand (3^rd)

Matthew Southgate:

France (5^th) / HimmerLand (4^th)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

Doha Golf Club is an exposed course with large greens and ranks closely to this week’s venue in most aspects. It can be impacted by the wind and many players who have handled conditions out there in the Middle East have also been able to do so at Le Golf National.

Notable correlating form:

Bernd Wiesberger:

France (1^st) / Qatar (3^rd)

Pablo Larrazabal:

France (1^st) / Qatar (4^th, 5^th)

Chris Wood:

France (2^nd) / Qatar (1^st)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

France (2^nd, 3^rd) / Qatar (2^nd, 3^rd)

Jordan Smith:

France (2^nd) / Qatar (5^th, 6^th)

Alejandro Canizares:

France (2^nd) / Qatar (5^th, 8^th)

George Coetzee:

France (3^rd, 3^rd) / Qatar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Mike Lorenzo-Vera:

France (3^rd, 6^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 4^th)

Marcus Kinhult:

France (5^th) / Qatar (3^rd, 3^rd)

Wales Open (Celtic Manor – Twenty Ten Course)

Celtic Manor is an exposed former Ryder Cup venue with plenty of water in-play and is similarly difficult to this week’s layout. It possesses comparable stats in most areas, including birdie and bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

Graeme McDowell:

France (1^st, 1^st) / Wales (1^st)

Alex Noren:

France (1^st) / Wales (1^st)

Thongchai Jaidee:

France (1^st, 2^nd) / Wales (1^st)

Tommy Fleetwood:

France (1^st) / Wales (2^nd)

Nicolas Colsaerts:

France (1^st) / Wales (4^th)

Pablo Larrazabal:

France (1^st) / Wales (4^th)

Richard Sterne:

France (2^nd) / Wales (1^st, 2^nd)

Peter Uihlein:

France (2^nd) / Wales (2^nd)

Thomas Pieters:

France (3^rd) / Wales (3^rd)

Andy Sullivan:

France (5^th, 6^th) / Wales (3^rd)

Jamie Donaldson:

France (5^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Wales (4^th, 8^th)

Dubai Desert Classic (Emirates Golf Club)

The demanding challenge at Emirates Golf Club is not dissimilar to what awaits at Le Golf National, which has enabled many players to amass crossover form at the two courses.

Notable correlating form:

Alex Noren:

France (1^st) / Dubai (2^nd)

Thongchai Jaidee:

France (1^st, 2^nd) / Dubai (3^rd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

France (1^st) / Dubai (4^th, 6^th)

Marcel Siem:

France (1^st) / Dubai (4^th)

Pablo Larrazabal:

France (1^st) / Dubai (4^th)

Richard Sterne:

France (2^nd) / Dubai (2^nd)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

France (2^nd, 3^rd) / Dubai (3^rd, 5^th)

Peter Uihlein:

France (2^nd) / Dubai (5^th)

George Coetzee:

France (3^rd, 3^rd) / Dubai (5^th, 7^th)

Andy Sullivan:

France (5^th, 6^th) / Dubai (2^nd, 4^th)

British Masters (The Belfry – Brabazon Course)

Finally, The Belfry’s Brabazon Course is another fellow Ryder Cup venue. Though tree-lined in contrast to the exposed Le Golf National, it provides a similar test off-the-tee and has closely matched birdie/bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

Guido Migliozzi:

France (1^st) / Belfry (2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

France (1^st) / Belfry (5^th)

Rasmus Hojgaard:

France (2^nd, 4^th) / Belfry (1^st, 3^rd)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

France (2^nd, 3^rd) / Belfry (1^st)

Richie Ramsay:

France (5^th, 5^th) / Belfry (3^rd)

Andy Sullivan:

France (5^th, 6^th) / Belfry (6^th, 9^th)

THE FIELD

Billy Horschel continues his stint in Europe this week and is the top-ranked player in the field at #17. He is one of four from inside the top 50, alongside the leading Frenchman, Matthieu Pavon (#26); Justin Rose (#37) makes his first start in the event since finishing 9^th in 2012, and South Africa’s Thriston Lawrence (#46) completes the quartet.

We don’t have a defending champion but 2022 winner, Guido Migliozzi is in attendance. The Italian is the most recent of four former winners, joined by Nicolas Colsaerts (2019), Bernd Wiesberger (2015) and Marcel Siem (2012).

There is a strong group of home players hoping to end the 13-year wait for a French winner, with Pavon accompanied by Victor Perez and Romain Langasque, as well as first-time tour winners in 2024, Frederic LaCroix and David Ravetto, among many others.

Open de France Odds

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SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Billy Horschel 12/1, Rasmus Hojgaard 14/1, Thriston Lawrence 18/1, Matt Wallace 18/1, Jordan Smith 20/1, Victor Perez 22/1, Niklas Norgaard 22/1

It’s no surprise to see Billy Horschel heading the betting after recent form and having gone well here on debut last year, I’d expect a bold showing.

Rasmus Hojgaard is another player in excellent shape with a strong record here. However, course form isn’t mandatory to perform well here and though missing the cut last year, Tom McKibbin looks a suitable fit and can go much better this time around.

1.5 pts Tom McKibbin each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 30/1 

After making his DP World Tour breakthrough last year in the European Open, McKibbin has had a strong year in 2024. He’s missed just four cuts across 21 starts, hitting the top 25 on 13 occasions. Eight of those have resulted in top 10s, going closest when finishing runner-up in the Italian Open at the end of June.

He’s been solid on the greens, but there’s no doubting that the driver is his biggest weapon, combining enviable accuracy and length to rank 8^th on the DPWT this season. His approach play was excellent at the start of the year and although it has been less reliable in recent weeks, he did look strong in this area two starts ago at Wentworth.

McKibbin missed the cut here on debut last year due to struggles with the short game. Although, he did hit the ball well, which shows that the course does suit his eye. A 4^th-place finish in Qatar earlier this year – an event in which he also finished 9^th last year – provides me with further encouragement as to his suitability to this challenge and having to navigate a dangerously watery finish to win the European Open, we know he has the mettle to handle the pressure of the closing holes at Le Golf National.

1.25 pts Frederic LaCroix each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 45/1 

Frederic LaCroix’s excellent tee-to-green game helped him towards a maiden win at this level in Denmark four starts ago. The talented Frenchman can rely on that to become the first home winner of this event since Thomas Levet in 2011.

This is LaCroix’s second full season on tour having narrowly failed to retain full playing privileges in 2022, however, he made sure that there was going to be no repeat of that this season.

He recorded three top 5s across his first four starts of the season, finishing 5^th in the South African Open at the end of last year and beginning 2024 with finishes of 3^rd in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and 4^th in Bahrain. Though failing to replicate that level across his following starts, he still retained a good level of consistency and after returning to the top 5 when 3^rd in the Czech Masters five starts ago, he scored that impressive victory in the Danish Golf Championship on his next start, beating proven tour winners, Lucas Bjerregaard and Romain Langasque by four strokes.

The driver has been key to his success. He ranks 12^th off-the-tee for the year, and also among the top 25 in both accuracy and distance, he’s one of the straightest big-hitters on tour. When we combine this with top-40 rankings in approach and around-the-greens, we find a player who ranks 10^th on tour tee-to-green.

LaCroix made his debut here in 2019, finishing 40^th and missed the cut in 2022. However, he’s a considerably different prospect now and he can earn a memorable victory on home soil this week.

1.25 ptw Adrian Otaegui each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 45/1

Adrian Otaegui has developed an affinity with Le Golf National in recent years. After regaining some consistency over his latest starts, the Spaniard can win his second DPWT title of the year in France.

Otaegui made an up-and-down start to the year but following a more encouraging series of results, he picked up his fifth DPWT win in the China Open. Which was shortened to 54 holes due to adverse weather conditions.

He returned to the more erratic form of previous starts after that win but has rediscovered consistency on his last four outings, which includes top-20 finishes in the Irish Open and at Wentworth.

The putter has been an issue this year, but he has looked good tee-to-green, ranking 28^th. He makes up for his lack of power by ranking as the most accurate driver on tour and when combined with his top-20 performances in approach, he’s been able to develop a great record at this week’s venue.

Otaegui missed each of his first three cuts here but has followed by missing just one of his last six. He’s finished inside the top 20 on four of those starts, recording a best of 7^th in 2017 and with top-5 finishes at HimmerLand and in Qatar, he has relevant comp form to strengthen his case.

1 pt Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1

Coming as no shock to anyone, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen continues to look extremely comfortable at this level. I don’t believe we’ll have to wait long to see him transfer his talent for winning and I’m taking him to replicate Ryo Hisatsune’s achievement from last year, by claiming this event on debut.

Neergaard-Petersen has teed it up three times since winning his third Challenge Tour title this year, which earned him an automatic promotion to the DPWT. He narrowly missed the cut in the Irish Open on the first of those starts, but has responded admirably over his next two, finishing 13^th in the Open de Espana and then 4^th in last week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

The Dane consistently impresses with his driving, and based on this season’s limited data, he’d already rank among the top 15 in the world off-the-tee. This ability to hit it long and straight can see him contend just about anywhere, and when we also counter in the fact he’s been firing with his irons over recent starts, he looks a formidable prospect.

Neergaard-Petersen does have some experience of this course, finishing 23^rd on the individual leaderboard at the 2022 Eisenhower Trophy (otherwise known as the World Amateur Team Championships). That could prove invaluable here and help him win this historied event at first attempt.

1 pt Robin Williams each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 80/1

Similar to Neergaard-Petersen, Robin Williams persistently looks at home at this level and after a good year on the Challenge Tour, he’ll get to ply his trade here fully next season. He’s another who drives the ball well and when we counter in his superb approach performance in Scotland last week, he looks well worth chancing at the price.

South African-born but growing up in the UK, Williams won his first titles since turning pro in the country of his birth last year. He’s played a truly eclectic schedule in 2024, mixing his time between the DPWT, Sunshine Tour, Challenge Tour and even a couple of starts on the Asian Tour, impressing throughout.

He’s picked up five top-5 finishes on the Challenge Tour, but the two standout efforts have each come on the DPWT, as he finished 2^nd in the SDC Championship back in March and then claimed his second top 5 of the season on the tour last week, finishing 4^th in the Dunhill Links.

The driver has looked a real asset whenever he’s teed it up on this stage but it’s last week’s approach performance that caught the eye, as he led the field across his two recorded rounds at St Andrews.

If he can maintain that high-class level of ball-striking, Williams should be able to handle the daunting test of Le Golf National on his debut.

1 pt Joe Dean each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 11o/1

Joe Dean has been one of the breakout players of the tour this year and he can get his rewards for continually putting himself in contention by claiming a first DPWT win in Paris.

Dean first caught everyone’s attention when finishing 2^nd in the Kenya Open on his second start of the year in February. He has gone on to record a further four top 5s, finishing 5^th in the Soudal Open, 2^nd in the KLM Open, 5^th in the Danish Golf Championship and two starts ago, he was 3^rd in the Open de Espana. He did miss the cut last week, though it was his first in 10 starts and it’s easily forgiven due to the unique nature of that event.

The 30-year-old has displayed the type of all-round quality that makes you wonder how he’s not managed to reach this level before now. He’s at his best on the greens, ranking 26^th, though he’s also a solid 42^nd off-the-tee, in which he’s relatively long and accurate enough, whilst he comes into this week off the back of two of his best approach performances of the season.

Dean’s story has been well documented. After turning pro in 2015 following a successful amateur career, he’d struggled to reach the upper-levels of the game and found himself working as a delivery driver to make ends meet as recently as this year. The swift turnaround in his career has been remarkable and now sees him sitting at #27 on the Race to Dubai, securing his future on the tour for the short-term at least and I’m taking him to cap that story off by earning a deserved win in the Open de France.

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