Open de Espana 2024 Tips: Wallace to reign in Spain

Following on from Billy Horschel’s dramatic success in last week’s BMW PGA Championship – which made him the first American to win the DP World Tour’s flagship event on two occasions – the tour now moves on to Madrid for the Open de Espana. Where a stronger-than-usual field has assembled at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's Open de Espana 2024  Tips, featuring five picks ranging from 22/1 to 80/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

Having first been held in 1912, the Open de Espana is one of the oldest national championships in the sport. It has been a mainstay on the DP World Tour/European Tour calendar since its creation in 1972, barring absences in 2017 and 2020.

Angel de la Torre set the record of five wins in the pre-DPWT days and it’s fellow Spaniards, Seve Ballesteros (1981, 1985, 1995) and Jon Rahm (2018, 2019, 2022) who have set the standard in the modern era, winning three editions apiece.

Other famous names to etch their names on to the trophy include Arnold Palmer (1975), Bernhard Langer (1984, 1989), Nick Faldo (1987), Colin Montgomerie (1994) and Sergio Garcia (2002).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Matthieu Pavon (-23); runner-up: Zander Lombard (-19)
• 2022 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-25); runner-up: Matthieu Pavon (-19)
• 2021 – Winner: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-19, playoff); runner-up: Adri Arnaus (-19)
• 2019 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-22); runner-up: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-17)
• 2018 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-20); runner-up: Paul Dunne (-18)

Last year’s renewal saw Matthieu Pavon go one better than his runner-up finish to Jon Rahm in 2022, as the Frenchman claimed his first victory on the DP World Tour. Now a PGA Tour winner, he returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The Open de Espana has had several different hosts, but has called the 1956 Javier Arana design, Club de Campo Villa de Madrid home since 2019. It will host this DP World Tour event for the 10^th time this week.

The course plays as a par 71 and measures 7154 yards. It possesses 11x par 4s (362-505 yards), 4x par 3s (177-210 yards) and 3x par 5s (526-564 yards).

Whilst the average winning score of -22.25 across the four recent renewals here paints a picture of an easy course, it is worth noting that on three of those occasions, there has been a runaway winner. Though still giving up plenty of birdies, it is generally a more solid test for the vast majority of the field.

This hilly, sloping, tree-lined course features frequent elevation changes, which can often serve up spectacular views of Madrid. It provides players with a fairly tough ball-striking test, with both the fairways and greens ranking below average in accuracy percentages.

The doglegging fairways are predominantly generous on the front nine but narrow on the back and are well protected by strategic bunkering. Some are placed at an angle to the tee position, making them even more difficult to hit and with trees blocking angles of attack into the greens, players need to be smart off the tee.

The greens are very small and often narrow and angled in shape. Strongly contoured, with many that are multi-tiered, they rank 4^th in putting difficulty on the DPWT. Large and deep greenside bunkers offer protection, with several pitched far short of the putting surface, creating bunker shots of an awkward distance.

Despite these difficulties there is a lack of penalty here, with rough that isn’t too troubling and no real hazards. With each of the three par 5s reachable in two for most of the field and numerous par 4s that can be got at with a drive and a wedge, we can see why the birdies typically flow if the weather doesn’t have an impact.

THE WEATHER

The players will be welcomed by some strong, gusty winds at the start of the week, which could hit highs of 43mph on Thursday. They will persist at around 30mph on Friday before dying down over the weekend.

With clear, bright weather and little wind we should see some low scoring over those final two rounds.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

Players will need to show strength throughout their tee-to-green game but it’s iron play into these small surfaces that looks the most important factor.

Matthieu Pavon was a solid 26^th in each area last year, with 2^nd and 3^rd-place finishers, Zander Lombard and Nathan Kimsey, both ranking top-5 in greens-in-regulation and top-20 in approach.

Jon Rahm ranked top-20 in approach for both of his victories and Rafa Cabrera-Bello ranked 5^th when taking the title in 2021.

• Scrambling

Scrambling is always a key stat here and it may be extra prevalent this week, with those strong winds over the first two days likely to mean even more greens are missed than usual.

Mattieu Pavon was 3^rd in scrambling when winning last year, with his nearest challengers ranking 1^st and 2^nd.

Jon Rahm ranked 7^th and 5^th in this area for each win, chased home by Pavon in 2022 and Rafa Cabrera-Bello in 2019, who both led the field in scrambling. Whilst Cabrera-Bello ranked 2^nd when he won in 2021.

• SG: Off-the-Tee

Strong drivers of the ball have dominated leaderboards in Madrid, and it feels reasonable to expect it to again be indicative of the type of players who can go well this week.

Jon Rahm ranked 1^st and 3^rd off-the-tee when winning; Matthieu Pavon was 1^st off-the-tee when runner-up to Rahm in 2022; whilst top-3 finishers across the last five years, Zander Lombard, Min Woo Lee and Nathan Kimsey, all ranked inside the top-20 OTT.

• Par 4 Scoring

Finally, mastering the par 4s has been vital in winning this event. Matthieu Pavon and Jon Rahm each ranked 1^st in par 4 scoring when winning here, whilst Rafa Cabrera-Bello was the fifth-best scorer on these holes in 2021.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Omega European Masters (Crans-sur-Sierre)

Crans-sur-Sierre is another hilly, tree-lined course, with frequent elevation changes and small greens. It ranks as a similar ball-striking test to this week’s course, as well as possessing closely matches birdie and bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

Adri Arnaus:

Open de Espana (2^nd, 4^th) / European Masters (6^th, 9^th)

Marcel Siem:

Open de Espana (4^th) / European Masters (2^nd, 7^th)

Fabrizio Zanotti:

Open de Espana (4^th) / European Masters (3^rd)

Edoardo Molinari:

Open de Espana (4^th) / European Masters (2^nd)

Alfredo Garcia-Heredia:

Open de Espana (6^th, 9^th) / European Masters (2^nd)

Richard Mansell:

Open de Espana (6^th) / European Masters (3^rd)

Jason Scrivener:

Open de Espana (7^th) / European Masters (4^th)

BMW International Open (Golfclub Munchen Eichenried)

Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is another strong comp for the challenge that awaits in Spain. This tree-lined course has comparable stats in most aspects from tee-to-green and retains almost identical birdie/bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

Matthieu Pavon:

Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW International (7^th, 10^th)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello:

Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd, 3^rd)

Edoardo Molinari:

Open de Espana (4^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

Ewen Ferguson:

Open de Espana (9^th) / BMW International (1^st)

Daniel Hillier:

Open de Espana (9^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

BMW PGA Championship (Wentworth)

With its rolling fairways, subtle elevation changes and small greens, Wentworth looks a strong comp for Club de Campo. This is reflected by it ranking closely to this week’s course in greens-in-regulation percentages, putting difficulty and birdie/bogey averages.

Notable correlating form:

Matthieu Pavon:

Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW PGA (9^th)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello:

Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW PGA (6^th, 8^th, 9^th)

Shubhankar Sharma:

Open de Espana (3^rd) / BMW PGA (9^th)

Marcel Siem:

Open de Espana (4^th) / BMW PGA (7^th, 7^th)

Fabrizio Zanotti:

Open de Espana (4^th) / BMW PGA (7^th)

Marc Warren:

Open de Espana (8^th, 9^th) / BMW PGA (2^nd)

Indian Open (DLF G&CC)

With dramatic elevation changes, multi-tiered greens and possessing a similar test off-the-tee, DLF G&CC is another course worth a look this week.

Notable correlating form:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello:

Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd) / India (5^th)

Shubhankar Sharma:

Open de Espana (3^rd) / India (7^th, 13^th)

Marcel Siem:

Open de Espana (4^th) / India (1^st)

Yannik Paul:

Open de Espana (8^th) / India (2^nd, 10^th)

Andalucia Masters (Valderrama)

Although former Andalucia Masters host, Valderrama is more extreme; as an undulating, tree-lined course with frequent changes in elevation and small, contoured greens that rank as some of the toughest to putt, it can help us find this week’s winner.

Notable correlating form:

Adri Arnaus:

Open de Espana (2^nd, 4^th) / Valderrama (2^nd)

Min Woo Lee:

Open de Espana (3^rd) / Valderrama (2^nd, 3^rd)

Fabrizio Zanotti:

Open de Espana (4^th) / Valderrama (4^th)

THE FIELD

A top-class field has assembled for this week’s Open de Espana, headed by world #12, Tommy Fleetwood. He is one of seven players from inside the top-40, joined by three-time champion, Jon Rahm (#15), Aaron Rai (#20), defending champion Matthieu Pavon (#26), Shane Lowry (#29), Sepp Straka (#31) and Tyrrell Hatton (#38).

Pavon and Rahm are part of a seven-strong group of former winners, alongside Rafa Cabrera-Bello (2021), Andrew Johnston (2016), James Morrison (2015), Thomas Aiken (2011) and Alvaro Quiros (2010).

LIV’s Patrick Reed, David Puig and Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra add some further depth to an already strong field; high-class Spanish amateurs, Jose Luis Ballester and Luis Masaveu – who recently finished 1^st and 3^rd in the US Amateur – also tee it up; and we now have two automatic upgrades from the Challenge Tour after John Parry won his third event on that tour last week, following Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen achieving the same feat three weeks ago.

Open de Espana Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Open de Espana market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Jon Rahm 10/3, Tyrrell Hatton 9/1, Tommy Fleetwood 9/1, Shane Lowry 14/1, Aaron Rai 14/1, Matt Wallace 22/1, Patrick Reed 22/1

Two-time Club de Campo winner, Jon Rahm is a strong favourite this week but having withdrawn from last week’s LIV Team Championship due to illness, he’s easily overlooked at the price.

Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood represent a top-class pair of second-favourites, though there’s another Englishman currently enjoying a good run of form and having shown an ability to rack up wins on the tour when he gets hot, I’m taking Matt Wallace to win for the second time in three starts this week.

2 pts Matt Wallace each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 22/1 

Wallace has had a solid year on the PGA Tour, recording a best of 4^th in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson but we’ve seen just how big a danger he is when returning to the DP World Tour recently. In four starts on the tour this year, he’s finished no worse than 15^th and enters this week having finished 8^th in the British Masters, 1^st in the European Masters and 12^th at Wentworth, thanks to a superb final-round 64.

He's produced quality in all areas of late, ranking 6^th around-the-greens, 15^th in putting, 19^th in approach and 22^nd off-the-tee in this field across his last 50 rounds. As a good scrambler who generally scores well on the par 4s, he looks a good fit for this test.

Wallace hasn’t played here before but adding that recent win at Crans to his 2018 win in India, he has victories at two of the comp courses mentioned and can put those experiences to use in Madrid.

1.75 pts Sepp Straka each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 28/1 

Sepp Straka played well enough at Wentworth and at just a couple of points shorter in this weaker field, he looks appealing value to put up a positive performance in Spain.

Straka found form back in March at THE PLAYERS Championship and has maintained a consistently high level since. He made his first start in three weeks – since the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour – last week and finished 38^th, shooting three out of four rounds under par and finally rediscovered his top-quality ball-striking in the final round. Which I’m hoping he’ll carry over to this week.

He's been one of the best ball-strikers in this field this year, ranking 5^th in approach and 11^th off-the-tee, and this has very much been mirrored over his most recent starts, ranking 4^th in approach and 18^th off-the-tee across his last 50 rounds.

Though making his debut this week, Straka’s record at Wentworth – where he finished 10^th last year before that 38^th last week – is a positive. In addition to that, he’s performed well on similar courses in the US, with his win at the undulating TPC Deere Run in last year’s John Deere Classic looking an especially noteworthy piece of form in relation to this challenge.

1 pt Keita Nakajima each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 66/1

Keita Nakajima has played a relatively light schedule up to this point this year, but this classy former #1 amateur did notch up his first DPWT win in India across those starts. With that acting as a handy piece of comp form, he is taken to go well on debut in Spain.

Nakajima’s rookie season began with a 4^th-place finish in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and just five starts later he recorded that impressively dominant four-stroke victory in the Indian Open at the end of March. He’s only played eight times since, though did record another top-10 when 6^th in the European Open and he comes into this week having finished 33^rd on his first start at The Belfry in the British Masters.

The Japanese star has little weaknesses, ranking 19^th around-the-greens, top-50 in approach and putting, and 68^th in driving, gaining strokes in each area. His ball-striking ability is upgraded by a rating of 12^th in greens-in-regulation, which should be pivotal into these small greens.

Nakajima’s win in India provides us with plenty of encouragement in his ability to perform well at Club de Campo on debut. We find further evidence of his liking for these tree-lined tests from his 12^th-place finish in the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour. That should come as no surprise, as these parkland courses dominate the golfing landscape in Japan, and he can again prove his comfort with this type of examination this week.

1 pt Dan Bradbury each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 80/1

Dan Bradbury has been hitting the ball well all year and has a good record at this course. The putter has been a big concern throughout much of the campaign, however, there have been some more positive signs with the club lately and if he can find further improvements this week, he’ll be a danger in Madrid.

After finishing 30^th in the no-cut Dubai Invitational on his first start of 2024, Bradbury then went on to miss the cut on his next six starts. He’s continued to miss cuts since but has had some promising displays mixed in there as well, including finishing 10^th in the Italian Open and comes here after a 35^th-place finish in last week’s BMW PGA Championship.

He bookended that event with scores of 67 and 65, rounds which were engineered by his best putting displays of the season and after a couple of subpar efforts, this 8^th-ranked approach player looked much more like his usual self with the irons. As a consistent top-50 driver, he has the ball-striking skills to take it to the course.

Bradbury finished 13^th here on debut in 2022 on just his fifth start as a professional. He then returned to go even better last year, finishing 6^th and having putted these greens competently on both occasions, he’ll be excited to tee it up again at Club de Campo.

1 pt Daniel Hillier each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 80/1

Daniel Hillier was one of the best players over the weekend at Wentworth and returning to a place at which he finished 9^th on debut last year, he’s an attractive price to contend in the Open de Espana.

Hillier was solid if unspectacular at the start of the year but comes into this week after producing two of his three best efforts of the season over his last five starts. He recorded the best major finish of his career in The Open five starts ago, finishing 19^th and that excellent 67/68 weekend in last week’s BMW PGA Championship took him to 18^th place.

He's a player who excels with driver, and that has again been the case this year, ranking 24^th on tour. The New Zealander has also been putting well of late, ranking 12^th in this field over his last 20 rounds and with last week’s approach display - ranking 10^th - rating as one of his best of the season, he looks ready to contend.

Hillier shot an even-par 71 in the opening round on debut last year to sit in 75^th position, though following with rounds of 67/66/66, he rose to 9^th place by the end of the week. A 3^rd-place finish in the 2023 edition of the BMW International Open suggests he’s capable of even better in Madrid and if able to pick up where he left off in Surrey, this 2023 British Masters winner has the class to make an impact in this field.

You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on Betfred.com

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.