Mizuho Americas Open 2024 Tips: Four for this week’s LPGA

Eyes may be on Valhalla this week for the PGA Championship but it's also a big weekend in the LPGA with the last regular tournament ahead of the upcoming second major of the season, the Mizuho Americas Open.

Let's jump right in with star golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Mizuho Americas Open betting tips, which range from 10/1 to 125/1...

All eyes were on Nelly Korda in last week’s Founders Cup, as she chased that unprecedented sixth straight LPGA win. Though producing a valiant effort in finishing 7^th, it was another of the tour’s brightest stars who took the spoils.

It has been almost 12 months since new pro, Rose Zhang recorded a memorable first LPGA win on her first professional start in New Jersey, and it was perhaps those memories that spurred her on to her second LPGA victory last week at Upper Montclair Country Club.

The performance of the top two there was nothing short of extraordinary. In firing -24 and -22 respectively, Zhang and runner-up, Madelene Sagstrom finished an incredible 15 and 13 strokes ahead of 3^rd-place finisher, Gabriela Ruffels, making an otherwise tough course look remarkably easy.

You have to spare a thought for Sagstrom, who led by three with five to play but could only stand by and watch as Zhang proceeded to birdie four of her last five holes to snatch the title from her grasp.

Zhang is back in action this week and it’s a return to that stage of almost one year ago that provided her with her debut victory, as Liberty National Golf Club plays host to the Mizhuo Americas Open once again – the LPGA’s final stop before the second major of the year in two weeks’ time, the US Women’s Open at Lancaster Country Club.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Mizuho Americas Open debuted on the LPGA last year at Liberty National Golf Club and returns to the same course this year.

That first edition was a hugely memorable one, as Rose Zhang, who had only recently turned pro, beat Jennifer Kupcho in a playoff to record a dream victory on her professional LPGA debut. Becoming the first player to achieve this feat since Beverly Hanson in 1951.

Zhang gets the chance to defend a title for the first time in her short professional career this week and will be feeling in confident mood after her brilliant victory at Upper Montclair.

THE COURSE

Liberty National Golf Club was designed by the design team of Bob Cupp and Tom Kite, and opened for play in 2006. Situated opposite New York Harbour, the course is well-known for the spectacular views it offers up of the Statue of Liberty and Manhattan Skyline, that are both visible throughout the layout.

Aside from hosting this event for the first time last year, it was used as part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs on the PGA Tour on four occasions (2009, 2013, 2019 & 2021), whilst it also hosted the 2017 Presidents Cup.

This par 72 course will play to 6675 yards this week; possessing 10x par 4s (328-427 yards), 4x par 5s (497-542 yards) and 4x par 3s (152-193 yards).

This flat and exposed course is somewhat linksy, with the generous, gently-rolling fairways framed by manmade mounds throughout. There is a huge amount of sand on show, with almost 100 bunkers in total, many of which line the fairways and pinch those generous landing areas. While the first cut of Kentucky bluegrass rough isn’t too penal, native tall fescue awaits the most wayward drivers and is much more difficult to play out of.

The small bentgrass greens are often elevated, littered with run-offs and strongly bunkered. Largely narrow or shallow in shape and positioned at an angle to the fairway, hitting them is the toughest aspect of play at Liberty National and requires players to be at their best in approach.

Having said that, they’re not too punishing to scramble around, whilst the moderate undulations make them easy enough to putt. Meaning those with a competent short game can enjoy success.

There are several out of bounds areas around the course but the main danger comes in the shape of water, which is in-play on 13 holes; including on three of the four par 3s and offer up risk/reward opportunities on three of the four par 5s.

That theme of risk/reward is prevalent throughout the course, with water also protecting the fairway and green on the potentially drivable 328-yard par 4 16^th, on which the tee will be pushed up, leading to the hole playing as short as 261 yards over the course of the week.

The course closes out with the 420-yard par 4 18^th. With out of bounds right of the well-bunkered fairway and green, this hole can be particularly difficult with any wind buffeting in from the Atlantic and provides a nervy finish for anyone in contention over those closing holes on Sunday.

THE WEATHER

Barring a strong breeze on Thursday there doesn’t appear to be much threat from wind over the rest of the week, with occasional gusts of 13-17mph not enough to make things too difficult.

There is forecast to be plenty of rain on Wednesday, which will soften the course up and should tempt those strongest iron players into attacking the pins.

As always, these forecast conditions could yet change and should only be treated as a guide in advance of the tournament.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

It stands to reason that with such small putting surfaces, quality iron play is the key to contending at Liberty National. We only have the one LPGA event for evidence but there was plenty of quality in this area last year.

Each of the top 3 on last year’s leaderboard ranked 1, 2, 3 in greens-in-regulation. Winner, Rose Zhang ranked 2^nd; runner-up, Jennifer Kupcho ranked 1^st and 3^rd-place finisher, Haeran Ryu ranked 3^rd.

Ryu also led the field in SG: Approach; with each member of the top 6 ranking inside the top 25 in this area.

• Around-the-Greens/Scrambling

Virtually every player who contended last year showed some quality with the short game, no surprise when we get small greens that have such a low greens-in-regulation percentage.

Zhang ranked 2^nd around-the-greens on her way to victory; Kupcho ranked 10^th ATG and in scrambling; whilst Ryu and 4^th-place finishers, Ayaka Furue and Aditi Ashok ranked top 6 in scrambling.

• SG: Off-the-Tee

Whilst the driver wasn’t wholly important for the top of the leaderboard, the top 2 players both produced quality performances off-the-tee, with Zhang ranking 5^th and Kupcho 8^th. Though they’re generous, you can get in all kinds of trouble if missing and players will need to be in control of the club to give themselves the best chance to attack the small putting surfaces.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

Although the putter was comfortably the least important club in the bag in terms of the main contenders last year, it can only be seen as a positive if a player has proven an ability to putt well on bentgrass greens.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

We’ve only had one previous renewal of this event, therefore comp form isn’t that deep. The exposed, linksy nature of the course led me down the route of looking at Women’s Opens and Women’s Scottish Opens on links courses last year, and I see no reason to abandon that here.

There are also three events/courses on the LPGA which threw up some decent comp form last year, which are detailed in more depth below:

LA Championship (Wilshire Country Club)

Situated on the other side of the country and a more traditional parkland course which uses poa annua, Wilshire Country Club doesn’t jump out as the most obvious comp course. However, with generous fairways, small greens and abundant bunkering, we saw some rather striking form-ties develop with Liberty National last year.

Notable correlating form:

Haeran Ryu:

Mizuho (3^rd) / Wilshire (3^rd, 6^th)

Aditi Ashok:

Mizuho (4^th) / Wilshire (2^nd)

Ayaka Furue:

Mizuho (4^th) / Wilshire (4^th)

Eun-hee Ji:

Mizuho (4^th) / Wilshire (5^th)

Arkansas Championship (Pinnacle Country Club)

Whilst Pinnacle Country Club is tree-lined - in contrast to this week’s exposed course - it features generous fairways, bentgrass greens and water in-play throughout.

Notable correlating form:

Haeran Ryu:

Mizuho (3^rd) / Arkansas (1^st)

Eun-hee Ji:

Mizuho (4^th) / Arkansas (2^nd)

Aditi Ashok:

Mizuho (4^th) / Arkansas (8^th)

Yuka Saso:

Mizuho (7^th) / Arkansas (4^th)

Shoprite LPGA Classic (Seaview – Bay Course)

Renovated by one half of Liberty National’s design team, Bob Cupp, Seaview’s Bay Course is another exposed, linksy course located in New Jersey; that has bentgrass greens, close to 100 bunkers and similar Kentucky bluegrass/fescue rough.

Notable correlating form:

Jennifer Kupcho:

Mizuho (2^nd) / Shoprite (2^nd)

Ashleigh Buhai:

Mizuho (7^th) / Shoprite (1^st)

THE FIELD

After her commendable 7^th-place finish last week as she attempted to create history, world #1 Nelly Korda is back in action in the North-East. She again heads a strong field of stars looking to take some positives into the US Women’s Open in two weeks’ time.

There are nine of the world’s top 10 in attendance, including last week’s Founders Cup winner and this week’s defending champion, Rose Zhang - now at a career-high #6 in the Rolex Rankings.

Charley Hull hops it back over to the U.S after her runner-up finish to Hyo Joo Kim on the Ladies European Tour in Korea last week; Atthaya Thitikul continues her return from injury at a course at which she finished 10^th last year; and Frida Kinhult returns after a six-week absence following a health issue.

SELECTIONS

Mizuho Americas Open Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Mizuho Americas Open market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

Market leaders: Nelly Korda 9/2, Rose Zhang 16/1, Brooke Henderson 20/1, Atthaya Thitikul 20/1, Haeran Ryu 22/1, Jin Young Ko 22/1

It’s going to take a lot more than a 7^th-place finish to shift Nelly Korda from the top of the betting and she is again a very strong favourite this week. Whilst not able to record that victory it was another quality performance and I expect her to be in the reckoning once more.

I still feel obliged to take her on at the prices and I’m going to begin with a strong pairing from the top of the betting with 28 LPGA wins between them, starting with Brooke Henderson.

2.25 pts Brooke Henderson each-way (1/4 - 5 places) - 20/1 

It’s the second week on the spin of having Henderson as the headline selection. I was a touch disappointed with her 35^th-place finish last week, though she was returning from a three-week absence and after finding her best stuff in round four there, shooting a 3-under 69, I’m hoping she’ll be much sharper this week.

Last week was of course her first start since contending in the first major of the year, the Chevron Championship, where she eventually finished 3^rd. That was her third 3^rd-place finish of the year and fifth top 10; having not missed a cut in 16 straight events, she’s one of the most consistent performers on tour.

Henderson’s consistent results are mirrored by the consistency of her entire golfing game. She’s gaining strokes in every area this season, ranking 4^th in total strokes-gained and possesses a game that travels well to just about any course.

She started well at Liberty National with rounds of 69 and 70 over the first two days, though she did fall back over the weekend to eventually finish 33^rd. However, it is worth noting she was suffering somewhat of a slump in form, especially with her ball-striking. We can take positives from her strong putting display there and now back hitting it like we know she can, she should enjoy a better spin this time around.

With wins in the Shoprite LPGA Classic and LA Championship, Henderson has strong form at two of the comp events mentioned and looks well worth another shot at this increased price.

2 pts Jin Young Ko each way (1/4 - 5 places) - 22/1

Jin Young Ko’s starts have been sparing this year, but she’s generally performed well whenever teeing it up and can build on her promising debut effort at Liberty National last year.

Ko has made just five starts on the LPGA this year, missing one cut at the Chevron Championship. She has been sound away from the majors, finishing inside the top 20 on each of her other four starts and three weeks ago she recorded her best finish of the year, when 4^th in the LA Championship at Wilshire Country Club.

What she lacks with the driver she makes up for in every other area. Her iron play has been especially good this year, ranking 3^rd and she also sits inside the top 25 in putting, scrambling, around-the-greens and greens-in-regulation.

The Korean finished 13^th here last year, with her second-round 66 rating as the sixth-best round of the week. She was excellent tee-to-green that week, ranking 3^rd, but endured an unusually poor week on the putting surfaces. Something she can easily rectify this week.

Ko has runner-up finishes in the LA Championship and Shoprite LPGA Classic, whilst she initially announced herself on a bigger stage with a runner-up finish at Turnberry in the 2015 Women’s Open. This quality of performance on links courses was further boosted by a top 3 in the Scottish Women’s Open and should serve her well on this exposed layout.

1.25 pts Patty Tavatanakit each way (1/4 - 5 places) - 40/1 

Away from Nelly Korda’s dominance, one of the stories of the current season has been the resurgence of Patty Tavatanakit. After producing her second-best approach display of the season last week, she is well-placed to record her third win of the year in Jersey City.

Wins in her second and third starts of the year in Saudi Arabia and Thailand put to rest a troublesome couple of years on the course for the Thai star. She’s maintained a good level of form since, finishing top 25 in four of her last five LPGA starts and improved as the week went on in last week’s Founders Cup, closing out the event with a 4-under 68 to finish 12^th.

That superb driver has been the main reason for her return to form this year, as this monster hitter ranks 11^th on tour this season. Her typically strong short game is represented by a ranking of 7^th around-the-greens and as mentioned, she arrives here after one of her strongest approach performances of the season, ranking 15^th at Upper Montclair.

Tavatanakit missed the cut here last year but her game was in no kind of shape. She’s shown a liking for exposed, linksy courses with top 10s in the Women’s Open, Women’s Scottish Open and the Bob Cupp-renovated Bay Course at Seaview in the Shoprite LPGA Classic. All pointing to a much better performance this year when combined with the improved state of her game.

0.75 pts Ashleigh Buhai each way (1/4 - 5 places) - 125/1

I’m going to sign off with Ashleigh Buhai. The South African performed well at Liberty National last year and as a winner of two of the comp events mentioned, I expect her to show it wasn’t merely a one-off this week.

Buhai started the season in solid form, making the weekend across each of her first five starts this year. Though her two missed cuts have come over her last three, her best LPGA finish of the year - of 13^th in the LA Championship – was sandwiched in between them.

She is at her best in approach and around-the-greens, ranking 21^st and 34^th in these respective areas this season. A combination of stats that is ideally suited to the small, easy-to-miss greens here.

Buhai’s closing 64 in this event last year was the joint-best round of the week and vaulted her into a 7^th-place finish. She was an impressive winner of the 2022 Women’s Open at Muirfield and with her liking for these exposed, linksy setups further emphasised with victory in last year’s Shoprite LPGA Classic, she looks an appealing price to again go well in the Mizuho Americas Open.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.