Mexico Open 2025 Tips: Hojgaard to maintain European charge

The PGA Tour heads east to Florida for the start of the East Coast swing next week, but first we take a detour south, for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Mexico Open 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview featuring six players priced from 45/1 all the way out to 90/1.

The West Coast swing concluded on the PGA Tour last week and it finished in very much the same way it started, with a European Ryder Cup player claiming the spoils. As Ludvig Aberg produced a superb finish to win the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.

The Swede started the final round two off the lead but after a slow start, he’d fallen further off the pace. However, as those as the top stumbled, he shot 6-under for his final 12 holes, including birdies on four of his last six, to beat Maverick McNealy by a shot.

It was by far the biggest win of his career, and he is going to be a significant factor with major season getting ever closer.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Mexico Open has been played across a variety of different tours since 1944 – including the European Challenge Tour and Korn Ferry Tour – but only became a PGA Tour event in 2022.

Tournament winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Jake Knapp (-19)

Runner-up: Sami Valimaki (-17)

• 2023 – Winner: Tony Finau (-24)

Runner-up: Jon Rahm (-21)

• 2022 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-17)

Runners-up: Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, Brandon Wu (-16)

Jake Knapp won last year’s renewal for his first PGA Tour victory; converting a four-shot overnight lead on Sunday to beat Sami Valimaki by two strokes. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The Vidanta Vallarta Course has hosted the previous three editions of this event and returns for a fourth time this year. Located in Nuevo Vallarta on Mexico’s West Coast, this venue was designed by Greg Norman and opened for play in 2015.

Measuring in at 7436 yards, this lengthy par 71 possesses 5x par 3s (170-226 yards), 9x par 4s (297-520 yards) and 4x par 5s (548-637 yards). This largely exposed course can be reasonably challenging if the wind blows but is there for the taking without help from conditions and has an average winning score of -20 in the three PGA Tour editions of this event.

Vidanta Vallarta is a spacious and well-conditioned course, with vast sandy waste areas – littered with mature trees and native vegetation – framing most holes. Paspalum is used throughout, and water features offer the primary defence, in-play on 12 holes.

The fairways are generous, ranking among the 10 easiest to find on the PGA Tour in 2024. Though the imposing, often deep bunkers can be penal, they’re fairly scarce around the course and with little protection coming from the rough, you can get away with missing the odd fairway. Which tempts players to hit driver throughout.

The large greens usually run quite slow and have proven simple to read in the renewals so far. That being said, run-offs at their perimeters will punish inaccuracy in approach and with a mix of those penal bunkers, rough and short-grass chipping areas, the course has ranked above average in scrambling difficulty.

Whilst Vidanta Vallarta has some challenging holes on paper, with two 500yd+ par 4s and one close at 498 yards, there are plenty of scoring chances. Most of the par 5s are there to be got at, as is the drivable 297-yard par 4 7^th; whilst the par 3s aren’t the most intimidating.

Although, most of those opportunities come with an element of risk/reward due to that abundance of water on show and if the wind does indeed get up, players can start to accrue some big numbers.

THE WEATHER

Fortunately for this week’s field, conditions look ideal in Mexico. It’s forecast to be bright and warm throughout the event and with little in the way of wind, we can expect a tournament that mirrors those lower scoring editions.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

As a long course with generous fairways, it’s no surprise to see high-class and lengthy drivers dominate the leaderboards here.

Last year’s winner, Jake Knapp very much fits the bill, and he ranked 11^th off-the-tee and 9^th in driving distance when winning. Each of the top seven there ranked inside the top 25 OTT and only one ranked outside the top 30 in driving distance.

The top three in 2023 ranked no worse than 7^th OTT. Tony Finau ranked 2^nd on his way to victory, with runner-up, Jon Rahm leading the field and 3^rd-place finisher, Brandon Wu ranking 7^th.

It was a similar story in 2022 as Jon Rahm and Tony Finau again occupied 1^st and 2^nd but in reverse order. Seven of the top nine ranked inside the top 20 OTT and eight of that top nine ranked inside the top 25 in driving distance.

• SG: Approach/Proximity from 175yds+

Approach play has been an expectedly vital area and it’s extra important to be dialled in with the long irons, as over 60% of approaches have come from over 175yds here in the last three years.

Jake Knapp was the strongest iron player in the field last year; four of the top seven in 2023 ranked inside the top 10 in approach, including winner, Tony Finau ranking 8^th; whilst Finau was also a handy 2^nd in approach in 2022 when runner-up, as five of the top nine ranked inside the top 10.

• SG: Putting (paspalum)

Low scoring typically requires some quality on the greens and this event has been no different. Of the 13 players to finish inside the top four at Vidanta Vallarta in the last three years, 12 ranked top 20 on the greens.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

World Wide Technology Championship (El Cardonal)

First up are three other events played on paspalum, starting with El Cardonal – host of the World Wide Technology Championship since 2023.

The wide fairways and large greens provide players with a comparable ball-striking test to the one at Vidanta Vallarta, and with said greens also ranking similarly easy to putt, there is much to like about this fellow low-scoring event as a comp.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Lower:

Mexico (3^rd) / WWTC (2^nd)

Akshay Bhatia:

Mexico (4^th) / WWTC (10^th)

David Lipsky:

Mexico (6^th) / WWTC (6^th)

Erik Van Rooyen:

Mexico (8^th) / WWTC (1^st)

Carson Young:

Mexico (8^th) / WWTC (2^nd)

Corales Puntacana Championship (Corales Golf Course)

Corales Golf Course ticks many of those same boxes. It’s a lengthy and fairly open paspalum-covered course, with generous fairways and is ripe for low scoring if the wind doesn’t blow.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Lower:

Mexico (3^rd) / Corales (4^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

Mexico (5^th) / Corales (6^th)

Alex Smalley:

Mexico (6^th) / Corales (2^nd, 6^th)

David Lipsky:

Mexico (6^th) / Corales (7^th)

Chan Kim:

Mexico (8^th) / Corales (6^th)

Puerto Rico Open (Grand Reserve Country Club)

Although the fairways at Grand Reserve Country Club are trickier to find, this exposed and long resort layout, with it’s large and typically receptive greens, works well as a correlating event.

Notable correlating form:

Tony Finau:

Mexico (1^st, 2^nd) / Puerto Rico (1^st)

Brandon Wu:

Mexico (2^nd, 3^rd) / Puerto Rico (3^rd, 7^th)

Akshay Bhatia:

Mexico (4^th) / Puerto Rico (2^nd)

Emiliano Grillo:

Mexico (5^th) / Puerto Rico (2^nd, 3^rd)

Carson Young:

Mexico (8^th) / Puerto Rico (3^rd)

Farmers Insurance Open/2025 Genesis Invitational (Torrey Pines)

The demands at Torrey Pines are much tougher than Vidanta Vallarta but it’s a long and exposed course, that favours those long iron stripers and strong drivers. This has helped it develop form-ties with this week’s host.

Notable correlating form:

Tony Finau:

Mexico (1^st, 2^nd) / Farmers (2^nd, 4^th)

Jake Knapp:

Mexico (1^st) / Farmers (3^rd)

C.T. Pan:

Mexico (3^rd) / Farmers (2^nd)

Stephan Jaeger:

Mexico (3^rd) / Farmers (3^rd)

Patrick Rodgers:

Mexico (6^th, 10^th, 10^th) / Genesis/Farmers (3^rd, 4^th)

Andrew Novak:

Mexico (8^th) / Farmers (3^rd)

Houston Open (Memorial Park Golf Course)

Top-quality drivers have typically dominated leaderboards at Memorial Park. As a spacious venue with generous fairways and requiring many long iron approaches, some notable form-ties have materialised with Vidanta Vallarta.

Notable correlating form:

Tony Finau:

Mexico (1^st, 2^nd) / Houston (1^st, 2^nd)

Stephan Jaeger:

Mexico (3^rd) / Houston (1^st)

Alex Smalley:

Mexico (6^th) / Houston (4^th)

Ben Taylor:

Mexico (8^th) / Houston (3^rd)

3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)

Last of all, TPC Twin Cities and its wide fairways have enabled many big-hitters to enjoy success there. Ranking closely to Vidanta Vallarta in ball-striking difficulty, these two events have produced some standout crossover form in just a short space of time.

Notable correlating form:

Tony Finau:

Mexico (1^st, 2^nd) / 3M Open (1^st, 3^rd)

Kurt Kitayama:

Mexico (2^nd) / 3M Open (6^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

Mexico (5^th) / 3M Open (2^nd, 3^rd)

Cameron Champ:

Mexico (6^th, 8^th) / 3M Open (1^st)

THE FIELD

After a series of Signature Events and generally elite entrants, this week’s field represents a slight change of pace but is no less interesting.

Aaron Rai is the top-ranked player in the field at #29 and is one of just four from inside the top 50, joined by Akshay Bhatia (#30), Rasmus Hojgaard (#43) and Stephan Jaeger (#50).

Jake Knapp is our defending champion and in the absence of Tony Finau and Jon Rahm he’s the only former PGA Tour winner in attendance this week. Although, Mexico’s Alvaro Ortiz did win the event on the PGA Tour Americas in 2021.

Among the entries we also have nine of the 10 players to earn a PGA Tour card via the DP World Tour last year; each of the 35 Korn Ferry Tour and Q-School graduates; current #4 amateur Jose Luis Ballester Barrio makes another start on tour and former #12 amateur, Santiago de la Fuente strengthens the home challenge.

Mexico Open 2025 Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Akshay Bhatia 18/1, Rasmus Hojgaard 20/1, Kurt Kitayama 22/1, Sam Stevens 22/1, Patrick Rodgers 22/1, Michael Kim 25/1

Despite this being our eighth PGA Tour event of the season, many of these players have only made a few starts due to those limited fields. Therefore, we’re still trying to figure out where plenty of the newcomers stand at this level.

Those unknowns, along with the lack of star power in Mexico does create an open feel, which has led me away from the top of the betting, for all Rasmus Hojgaard did hold some appeal at a course that should suit.

He can be found at around the 20/1 mark, the same price that twin brother, Nicolai went off last year and after some solid form since the end of last year, it’s he who looks the value and goes in as my first selection of the week.

1.25 pts Nicolai Hojgaard each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 45/1

Nicolai Hojgaard has looked solid enough on his two starts in 2025 and possessing an ideal game for this course – as shown by two eye-catching performances in comp events – he’s taken to continue the recent European dominance by claiming his first PGA Tour win.

Hojgaard found form at the end of last year, recording five straight top-25 finishes on his final five starts and began this year with a 65^th-place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic on the DPWT. He improved on that effort considerably last time out when making his season debut on the PGA Tour, finishing 36^th in the Phoenix Open, where he ranked 7^th in approach and 15^th on the greens.

That approach performance should come as no surprise, as the big-hitting Dane ranked 30^th in this area on tour last season. He was especially strong from 175-200yds, ranking 1^st and as a top-50 player from 200yds+, he has the ball-striking ability to take it to this venue.

Nicolai has played here twice before, finishing 33^rd in 2023 and 52^nd last year; however, I’m certain he’s capable of much better based on some attractive form in correlating events. This includes runner-up finishes in both the Farmers Insurance Open and Corales Puntacana Championship; in addition, one of his two DPWT victories came on an exposed layout with paspalum greens in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in 2022.

1 pt Jesper Svensson each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 55/1

As detailed, the Europeans are dominating the PGA Tour currently and I’m hoping that witnessing compatriot, Ludvig Aberg’s brilliance last week will inspire Jesper Svensson to a big performance on a course that looks a perfect fit.

Svensson has made a rapid rise in the golfing world in the last few years, going from playing on the NGL (Nordic Golf League) at the start of 2023 to being a PGA Tour player less than two years later, via the Challenge Tour and DPWT.

He made an immediate impact on his first PGA Tour start this season, finishing 10^th in the Sony Open and though missing two cuts and finishing 63^rd on his next three starts, he’s continued to hit the ball well.

The Swede’s quality off-the-tee – for which he ranks 33^rd and is top 40 in driving distance – is to be expected, as it was an area he excelled in last year. However, it’s been encouraging to see him improve his approach play, ranking 65^th and with another top-70 ranking on the greens, he ticks many of the statistical boxes for his first stab at this course.

Whilst not possessing any comp form on the PGA Tour, Svensson has played excellently on somewhat similar courses on the DPWT. Indeed, his solo victory in Singapore came on a spacious venue with large paspalum greens, as did his runner-up finish in Bahrain and I’m counting on him transferring those experiences to Vidanta Vallarta this week.

1 pt Chan Kim each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

Despite becoming an eight-time winner in Japan since turning pro in 2010, Chan Kim only earned his PGA Tour card for the first time in 2023, thanks to two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour. He enjoyed a consistent rookie season, and I’d expect him to push on towards a breakthrough victory this year; I can think of no better place for him to achieve that than at a venue where he recorded his second-best finish of 2024.

Kim has only made four starts this season and hasn’t really set the world alite, missing the cut in The AmEx and Phoenix Open. Although, the fact that his best finish came when 42^nd in the Farmers Insurance Open is a positive.

He was excellent from tee-to-green last year, ranking 16^th, with rankings of 31^st in approach and 51^st off-the-tee offering particular promise for this week. He’s continued to hit his irons well at the start of this year, ranking 11^th in approach and as the 12^th-ranked player from 200yds+, his long game can take him far at Vidanta Vallarta.

Kim was very good on debut here last year, entering the final round in 3^rd place before eventually finishing 8^th. I was taken with his putting there, as he ranked 11^th in the field and having recorded his best finish of 2024 in the Corales Puntacana Championship when finishing 6^th, this prolific worldwide winner has every chance of adding a PGA Tour title to his cabinet this week.

1 pt Aldrich Potgieter each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 66/1

As the 2022 winner of the Amateur Championship, Aldrich Potgieter is more than accustomed to performing on open and exposed courses. He finally got his rookie season going last time out in the Farmers Insurance Open and looks a strong candidate for this challenge.

Potgieter made his way to the PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry Tour last year, largely thanks to a victory in The Bahamas at the beginning of the campaign. He ended 2024 with some strong performances on the DPWT, finishing 2^nd in the Nedbank Challenge and 8^th in the Australian PGA Championship, and although he missed the cut on the first two starts of his rookie PGA Tour season, he showed his potential at this level by finishing 15^th at Torrey Pines when we last saw him.

The 20-year-old South African is an excellent and lengthy driver, and it was this asset that helped him to that top 20 on his latest start, as he led the field both off-the-tee and in driving distance. When added to his admirable top-50 ranking on the greens, he has the weaponry to score heavily at this course.

Potgieter’s only pro victory in The Bahamas came on paspalum and with that 15^th-place finish at Torrey Pines indicative of how he excels on driver-heavy layouts, the youngster is a real threat here.

1 pt Vincent Norrman each-way (1/5 -  8 places) @ 90/1

After breaking through on both the PGA Tour and DPWT in 2023, last year was a hugely disappointing one for the talented Vincent Norrman. However, he looks to have turned a corner at the start of this year and fresh off the back of countryman, friend and roommate, Ludvig Aberg’s success last week, he should be feeling extra motivated to make further progress in Mexico.

Norrman has made four starts this season and reached the weekend in each, recording three top 40s. This is a far cry from his form at the end of 2024, as he missed the cut in eight of his final 11 starts and failed to record a single top-40 finish over that time.

The main reason for the turnaround has been the rediscovery of a level of a ball-striking that helped him to those two victories in 2023. He ranks top 40 in approach and off-the-tee – where his top-20 power is a big advantage – and with the long irons looking sharp, he’s hitting the ball with the required quality to get himself in the mix at Vidanta Vallarta.

Norrman finished 18^th on his debut here in 2023 and though missing the cut last year when out of form, we can take encouragement from top-25 finishes on his solo starts in the Corales Puntacana Championship and Puerto Rico Open.

1 pt Hayden Springer each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 90/1

Hayden Springer has only managed to get two starts at the beginning of this year but took full advantage of one of those when 6^th in the Farmers Insurance Open. His length and quality off-the-tee was a big advantage there, as it should be in Mexico and with a strong piece of comp form in Puerto Rico offering an additional boost, he can challenge for a breakthrough win.

Springer showed plenty of promise in last year’s rookie season, recording four top-10 finishes, though his general inconsistency saw him narrowly miss out on retaining full playing privileges. He’ll have to make the most of the chances that come his way and that’s what he did when 6^th at Torrey Pines, and he gets another shot this week having come through Monday qualifying.

His strength lies with driver, ranking 42^nd off-the-tee last season and 16^th in driving distance. He’s also solid on the greens, ranking 58^th in putting in 2024 and though his approach play is unreliable, it was a positive to see him strike his irons well at Torrey Pines – another course at which the long irons are most important.

Springer hit the ball well and shot every round under par on his way to a 38^th-place finish on debut at Vidanta Vallarta last year. He then finished 3^rd in Puerto Rico on his following start and with that 6^th in the Farmers Insurance Open another piece of handy comp form, this looks a perfect spot for him to contend.