Hero World Challenge 2024 Tips: Aberg to get it done in Bahamas

The PGA Tour officially completed its season at the RSM Classic two weeks ago. However, we still have a couple of fun, unofficial events to go before we can completely close the book on 2024.

It’s to Florida for the second staging of the Grant Thornton Invitational next week – a unique mixed team event co-sanctioned with the LPGA – but first we head to The Bahamas, for the Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Hero World Challenge 2024 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview. 

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The first edition of the Hero World Challenge was staged in January 2000, and it has taken place almost every year since, with the exception of 2020.

Featuring an elite and limited 20-man field, it can be viewed as a bit of an end-of-season jolly but with vital world ranking points on offer, it is an event worth taking seriously.

Tiger Woods hosts the event, and he has won this title more than anyone else, recording five victories (2001, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011).

The only other players to record multiple wins are Davis Love III (2000, 2003), Graeme McDowell (2010, 2012) and Viktor Hovland (2021, 2022).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-20); runner-up: Sepp Straka (-17)
• 2022 – Winner: Viktor Hovland (-16); runner-up: Scottie Scheffler (-14)
• 2021 – Winner: Viktor Hovland (-18); runner-up: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
• 2019 – Winner: Henrik Stenson (-18); runner-up: Jon Rahm (-17)
• 2018 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-20); runner-up: Tony Finau (-16)

World #1 Scottie Scheffler finally got his hands on the title last year, having finished 2^nd behind Viktor Hovland in the two previous renewals. He is back to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Albany Golf Course was developed by Ernie Els Design in 2010 and began hosting the Hero World Challenge in 2015, following stints at Greyhawk Golf Club (2000), Sherwood Country Club (2000-2013) and Isleworth Golf & Country Club (2014).

The course plays as a par 72 and measures 7449 yards. It possesses just 8x par 4s (307-513 yards), 5x par 5s (552-632 yards) and 5x par 3s (179-217 yards).

The design group inherited a relatively flat piece of land and created an exciting links-like layout. It is open and exposed, with all holes framed by striking manmade sand dunes, which can measure up to 30ft high, and it features water in-play on five holes.

The fairways are very wide but are strategically protected by large white sand bunkers. Which, due to the lack of penal rough, represent the main danger off-the-tee.

The room in the fairways is in stark contrast to the size of the bermudagrass greens, which are small at 4,500 sq. ft. Those intimidating bunkers again offer protection to the putting surfaces and there is no shortage of steep run-off areas, which can be tricky to get up-and-down from.

With five par 5s and even a couple of potentially drivable par 4s, Albany Golf Course is a scoreable and fun venue that is perfect for this end-of-season event, averaging a winning score of -19.15 across the eight renewals staged here. Having said that, as with many island courses, wind can often be a factor, and the players will be hoping to avoid any severe conditions in The Bahamas.

THE WEATHER

Conditions are forecast to be pleasantly warm, dry and sunny throughout the entire tournament week.

There will be a gentle breeze at the start of the event, blowing at around 8mph, with gusts of 12mph. This is forecast to rise a touch over the weekend, when we could see gusts of upwards of 20mph, however it’s nothing that the players shouldn’t be able to handle.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity 175yds+
• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)
• Birdie or Better %

Small green and lots of birdies means players are going to have to be at their best with the irons this week. The course especially suits quality long iron players, with around 63% of approaches coming from 175yds+ last year.

It’s also a setup that benefits the bigger hitters due to the generous fairways. Any power will be an advantage in setting up the best eagle/birdie chances on that larger-than-usual amount of par 5s, along with those shorter par 4s.

Additionally, anyone who generally putts bermudagrass well has to be of interest and with a low winning score likely, I’d check out those who rank high in birdie or better %.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Comp form doesn’t carry the same weight for this event due to the limited, elite field and more relaxed proceedings. That being said, there are a few courses that are worth considering.

The Sentry at the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course has a similar vibe to this week’s event, as a usually low-scoring affair played by a limited field. The fairways there are wide, and the greens are bermudagrass, whilst situated in Hawaii, we also get those island conditions.

Two other events worth a look are the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club and the Cognizant Classic at PGA National. Both courses are situated by the coast and use bermudgrass greens, whilst in the case of PGA National, it is a somewhat exposed venue.

Lastly, the Corales Puntacana Championship at Corales Golf Course could too provide us with some clues. It’s an exposed course of a similar length, with wide fairways and situated by the coast, it is susceptible to wind.

THE FIELD

Each of the 20 competitors in this year’s field currently sits inside the top 40 in the world. World #1, Scottie Scheffler is the star attraction – as well as the only former winner – with #5 Ludvig Aberg and #6 Wyndham Clark the other two members of the world’s top 10.

Aberg is one of eight Albany debutants in action, joined by: Aaron Rai, Akshay Bhatia, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley and Sahith Theegala.

Hero World Challenge Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Hero World Challenge market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 11/5, Ludvig Aberg 10/1, Justin Thomas 10/1, Patrick Cantlay 12/1

I’m going to go into this two-handed with a couple of debutants and after impressing on his return from injury in the RSM Classic, I fancy Ludvig Aberg to win on his first trip to Albany Golf Course.

4 pts Ludvig Aberg each-way (1/5 - 4 places) @ 10/1

Aberg has had an excellent 2024 campaign, recording 15 top-20 finishes. Undoubtedly his best effort came at Augusta on his Masters debut, as he finished 2^nd to Scottie Scheffler, almost becoming the first debutant to win the event in over 40 years.

The Swede was in good form prior to his almost three-month absence due to having surgery on a knee injury, finishing 2^nd in the BMW Championship and making the Tour Championship on his first attempt. He was understandably a little rusty on his return in the RSM Classic, opening with a 3-over 73 to sit 135^th after round one, but he rallied with an excellent 8-under 64 in round two and after another 64 in round four, he shot into 17^th place.

He’s driven the ball excellently this year, ranking 14^th off-the-tee, and at 22^nd in driving distance, he has the power to take it to this course. His irons have also looked strong, ranking 21^st in approach and as the 10^th-best player from 175-200 yards, he has the long iron prowess to attack these greens.

Having recorded his only PGA Tour victory on a coastal course with bermudagrass greens at the RSM Classic last year, Aberg should enjoy what he finds in The Bahamas.

2 pts Akshay Bhatia each way (1/5 - 4 places) @ 25/1 

One player with winning experience in The Bahamas is Akshay Bhatia, who won The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022. He can put that experience to good use this week and having performed well in Japan on his latest start, his game looks to be in a strong enough place to contend.

Bhatia won his second PGA Tour title in Texas back in April and barring the odd down period, he’s looked good for most of the year. He added two further PGA Tour top 5s when 2^nd in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 5^th in the Travelers Championship, whilst he also achieved his best ever major result, finishing 16^th in the US Open.

We hadn’t seen him for over two months when he teed it up in the Dunlop Phoenix on the Japan Golf Tour a few weeks ago. However, it took him no time to get back up to speed, finishing 2^nd to Max McGreevy and like Aberg, he can go even better now with that little bit of rust shaken off.

That win in The Bahamas in 2022 should mean that Bhatia arrives here in a positive frame of mind when combined with recent performances. He also played well in that season-opening double-header in Hawaii at the start of this year, finishing top 15 in The Sentry and Sony Open, and as a strong long iron player, ranking 26^th from 200yds+ this season, he has the skills to score well at Albany Golf Course.